Daily Kickoff: Israel denies accepting U.S.-France proposal for Hezbollah cease-fire
Good Thursday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we have the latest on American and French efforts to reach a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. We talk to Senate Foreign Relations Committee leaders about scuttled plans for a vote on sanctioning the International Criminal Court, report on bipartisan concerns over the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and report on Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s condemnation of an antisemitic disruption of a recent University of Washington board meeting. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and outgoing Brandeis President Ronald Liebowitz.
What We’re Watching
- New York City Mayor Eric Adams was indicted on at least one federal charge following a monthslong investigation; The City reported that the mayor is being charged with acting as an unregistered foreign agent. If Adams resigns, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams would become acting mayor…
- Former President Donald Trump is slated to meet with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer today.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is en route to New York for the U.N. General Assembly.
- Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer at 1 p.m. today.
- Following his meeting with Dermer, Blinken will meet with Ronald Lamola, South Africa’s minister of international relations.
- Blinken will end his afternoon of meetings with a sit-down with his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed.
- In Washington this morning, former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster is speaking at a Foundation for Defense of Democracies event on the emerging “axis of aggressors” that includes Russia, Iran and China.
What You Should Know
The odds of Republicans winning back control of the Senate are now looking quite favorable, as the Montana Senate race looks increasingly likely to flip to the GOP.
But the battle for the Senate is still remarkably consequential, because a gain of several seats could enshrine Republican control for the foreseeable future and provide a long-term check against a Democratic presidency, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
Let’s do the math: Republicans are now favored to win two Senate seats in November — a shoo-in in West Virginia and favorable prospects in the conservative confines of Montana. If partisan trends hold, and Republicans manage to flip the Ohio seat of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), they would hold 52 Senate seats.
Getting to 52 seats — a three-seat GOP pickup — would be a significant marker for Republicans. Given record-high partisan polarization, it’s very hard to find voters willing to split their tickets or consider voting for a talented individual candidate over their own partisan leanings. That will make it very difficult for Democrats to have enough realistic GOP targets in the next two election cycles to get back to the majority — at least if Republicans hit the 52-seat mark in 2024.
In 2026, the only two competitive states where Republicans hold Senate seats will be Maine (Sen. Susan Collins) and North Carolina (Sen. Thom Tillis). In 2028, the only serious Democratic pickup opportunity looks like it’s in Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson). On paper, Republicans will have more opportunities to go on offense in the next two election cycles — in Georgia and Michigan in 2026 and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania in 2028.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, it will be harder for Democrats to pick up Senate seats — given the opposition party’s historical headwinds in a midterm election. And if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, a 50-50 tie in the Senate — which looks close to a Democratic best-case scenario after 2026 — would be broken by the Republican vice president.
The policy implications of this political math are significant. It means that, if elected, Harris will unlikely to be able to pass wide-ranging progressive legislation, and will need bipartisan buy-in for her domestic agenda. It means confirming judges in a Harris administration will be a bit more challenging than it has been for President Joe Biden.
And it means that there will likely be more Senate hearings focused on antisemitism — along the lines of the notable House hearings featuring embattled university presidents — than we’ve seen lately. Last week’s hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee on hate crimes turned into a partisan feud over whether Democrats were downplaying the threat of antisemitism in favor of universalizing the rise of discrimination.
Harris would have much freer rein on foreign policy, regardless of partisan control of the Senate, which is why several notable anti-Trump conservatives have remained wary of her candidacy. “It’s not too much to ask. Ask her, are you for a Palestinian state if Hamas is going to run that state? OK. Yes or no?” New York Times columnist Bret Stephens said on Bill Maher’s HBO show last Friday. Harris’ cautious approach to discussing Israel and the Middle East is a factor in keeping a smattering of Nikki Haley-oriented Republicans on the sidelines.
One way to persuade anti-Trump moderates to vote for Harris: Between Republican control of the Senate and a conservative Supreme Court, it’s hard to see much of her agenda getting passed without serious compromise. And a Republican-controlled Senate would have some leverage in her Cabinet picks, and could push her to nominate national security officials with bipartisan credibility.
Then again, if Trump wins the presidency, a GOP Senate won’t end up being a check, but more of a rubber stamp — with winning back the House being the best hope for Democrats to block the prospect of full GOP control of Washington.
desperate diplomacy
Israel denies agreeing to U.S., French 21-day cease-fire proposal for Israel-Lebanon border
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office denied on Thursday agreeing to a French and American proposal for a 21-day cease-fire on the border with Lebanon, as he was en route to the U.N. General Assembly. Israel has not reached a cease-fire agreement, Netanyahu spokesman Omer Dostri said, calling it “an American-French proposal that the prime minister has not even responded to.” Dostri also said that reports that Israel was scaling down its strikes in Lebanon are “the opposite of the truth. The prime minister instructed the IDF to continue fighting at full force,” Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov and Gabby Deutch report.
U.S. announcement: The Biden administration on Wednesday announced an effort to negotiate a 21-day cease-fire on the Israel-Lebanon border, in the hopes that a short-term agreement will allow time for the parties to reach a long-term deal to end the fighting on Israel’s northern border and allow Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return home. “The exchange of fire since Oct. 7th, and in particular over the past two weeks, threatens a much broader conflict, and harm to civilians,” President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said in a statement on Wednesday night. “We therefore have worked together in recent days on a joint call for a temporary ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.”
cancellation questions
Foreign Relations Committee leaders trade blame over canceled ICC sanctions vote
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee canceled a scheduled Wednesday vote on bipartisan legislation sanctioning the International Criminal Court for pursuing arrest warrants against Israeli officials, extending a committee deadlock over the bill, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs and Marc Rod report.
Back and forth: Committee leaders are trading blame about why the meeting was canceled. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), the committee’s Democratic chairman, said Republicans filed an overwhelming number of amendments and weren’t responsive to his efforts to discuss the situation. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), the panel’s top Republican, said that lawmakers had a deal to vote on the legislation and a meeting on the schedule and that he had no warning about the meeting falling apart. The committee hasn’t held a vote since April in part due to a standoff over the ICC vote.
Bonus: Risch told reporters he’s “not of the same frame of mind as a lot of the sky is falling people who are saying that” Israeli operations in Lebanon are “going to cause a wider-spread war in the region,” explaining that Iran and its proxies are already engaged against Israel and that other Arab states are not going to join the assault on Iran’s side. “What I would plead with, with my country and with the allies, is to quit wringing their hands and talking about a worry that this thing’s going to expand,” Risch continued. “Instead, start talking about how we’re going to win this.”
turkey talk
Bipartisan skepticism in Washington about efforts to allow Turkey to buy F-35 fighter jets
The Biden administration is reportedly working to broker a deal that would reopen the pathway for Turkey to obtain cutting-edge F-35 fighter jets, a prospect that is raising bipartisan skepticism from some lawmakers, though others see such a sale as a way to incentivize better behavior from Ankara, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod and Emily Jacobs report.
State of play: The discussions come at a time when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been escalating his rhetoric against Israel, including expressing support for Hamas and threatening to invade or attack Israel. Turkey has also been increasingly hostile toward the NATO alliance and its efforts to counter Russia. “It is being talked about. We’re at a point where it’s a consideration, and then we’re going to have to make a decision,” a Senate Intelligence Committee member familiar with the matter told JI.
statehouse censure
Washington Gov. Inslee condemns antisemitic disruption of University of Washington board meeting
In a letter to national Jewish leaders, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee condemned the disruption of a University of Washington Board of Regents meeting earlier this month by anti-Israel demonstrators, who shouted down the CEO of the local Jewish federation, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
Quotable: “Public meetings are an essential democratic tradition, and disrupting such a meeting with fear and intimidation is an attempt to undermine our democracy,” Inslee, a Democrat, said in a letter to Jewish Federations of North America CEO Eric Fingerhut and Julie Platt, the organization’s board chair. “This incident must not be repeated.”
comfort food
Around the dinner table, culinary leaders commemorate Oct. 7 victims through their favorite meals
The last meal Shani Gabay ever ate with her family was on Oct. 6, 2023. It happened to be her favorite dish, made by her mother — spicy fish stew with challah on the side. The next day, Gabay, a 25-year-old recent law school graduate, went to the Nova music festival with friends. She was murdered at the festival when Hamas infiltrated the party in Israel’s south and slaughtered 364 people. On Monday evening, just two weeks before the one-year anniversary of Gabay’s death, a group of about 30 culinary leaders, pro-Israel activists and journalists gathered with Gabay’s mom, Michal Gabay; younger sister Nitzan; and older brother Aviel around a long table set with a white tablecloth at the chic French restaurant Gabriel Kreuther, a two-star Michelin restaurant in midtown Manhattan named after its chef and owner, Gabriel Kreuther, eJewishPhilanthropy’s Haley Cohen reports for Jewish Insider.
Sharing their stories: The inaugural event was hosted by the Asif Culinary Institute, a culinary center in Tel Aviv that has provided thousands of hot meals to Israelis impacted by the Israel-Hamas war. In May, the institute launched an initiative called “A Place at the Table” as a response to the devastating reality that thousands of families in Israel have been left with an empty seat at the dinner table after the Oct. 7 attacks. Asif works closely with the families to gather stories about their loved one before recreating their most-loved meals, often in the families’ own kitchens. Then the recipes and stories are shared on Asif’s website and social media channels in an effort to help the world learn about the victims of the attacks on a personal level.
raising awareness
Michael Oren leads delegation of displaced Israelis in northern Israel to Washington
Michael Oren, the former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., has spent months trying to raise awareness on Capitol Hill about the plight of Israelis who live near the Lebanon border, as their story has gotten far less attention than Israelis in the south hard hit by the Oct. 7 attacks. He brought a delegation of those from the north to meet with lawmakers in June, when the focus was still on Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. But last week, as fighting intensified between Israel and Hezbollah, the delegation he brought to the Hill had a fresh urgency to it, coming just two days after the audacious operation that detonated pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon, eJewishPhilanthropy’s Haley Cohen reports for Jewish Insider.
Delegation’s goals: “The objective of the first delegation was to raise awareness. Since then, the situation has deteriorated remarkably,” Oren told JI in an interview at the Washington Hilton, on the sidelines of last week’s Israeli American Council national summit, which the delegation also attended. In the wake of the escalation, he said, the focus of people’s attention has changed “slightly.” Both trips were organized through the Israel Advocacy Group, which Oren formed after the Oct. 7 terror attacks. Since Oct. 8, Hezbollah has bombarded Israel’s north with some 9,000 rockets, missiles and drones.
Worthy Reads
Where’s the Outrage?: In Time, the families of the six Israeli hostages killed by Hamas in captivity last month pen a letter about global inaction as they fought for their loved ones’ freedom. “Celebrities met us in secluded rooms but asked that we never acknowledge publicly that they did so; they feared losing followers. Leaders of humanitarian aid organizations, including the International Red Cross and the World Health Organization, claimed they would like to intervene but could not figure out how. Two Muslim clerics confidentially assured us, wrongly, that our loved ones would be okay because harming hostages violated Islam; but they and too many other religious leaders were publicly silent. More than one of these many people with power assured us that the hostages would survive, that their return was only a matter of time. Some said our loved ones were suffering but surely not dying. Two hundred fifty one hostages from 39 nationalities were stolen from their lives and from the world on Oct. 7. Why did the Presidents, Prime Ministers, and Foreign Ministers of those nations never stand, arm in arm, on a global stage and demand their release? Why are the names of the 101 hostages who remain in captivity not on the nightly news in countries around the world? Where is the global outcry calling for their release?” [Time]
How Not to Mark Oct. 7: In The Wall Street Journal, Yale students Netanel Crispe and Sahar Tartak raise concerns about the school’s handling of the fallout of the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks and broader handling of antisemitism on campus. “Yale University is preparing to mark a year since Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre in familiar fashion. The Chaplain’s Office will hold a silent vigil on Oct. 6 ‘to remember and mourn all Israeli and Palestinian lives lost and shattered over the past year.’ The event is consistent with our university’s track record of handling antisemitism on campus. In the weeks after Hamas’s atrocities, Yale was awash in anti-Jewish hate. Once-unacceptable calls for an ‘intifada’ became ubiquitous, as students chanted for a ‘free Palestine’ ‘from the river to the sea.’ … By making the event one for both Palestinians and Israelis, Yale is asking Jewish students to mourn alongside the classmates who on Oct. 9 urged their peers to ‘celebrate the resistance’s success.’ Yale dishonors the victims of Oct. 7 by equating Israel’s self-defense with Hamas’s horrific massacre.” [WSJ]
331 Days of Failure: The Atlantic’s Franklin Foer does a deep dive into U.S. efforts to negotiate a cease-fire since the early days of the war. “The administration faced an impossible situation, and for nearly a year, it has somehow managed to forestall a regional expansion of the war. But it has yet to find a way to release the hostages, bring the fighting to a halt, or put a broader peace process back on track. That makes this history an anatomy of a failure — the story of an overextended superpower and its aging president, unable to exert themselves decisively in a moment of crisis. … After all the trips to the region, all the suffering witnessed on those trips, all the tough conversations, all the cease-fire proposals, the conflict raged on. Three hundred thirty-one days of failure, and the single day of success was still beyond their grasp.” [TheAtlantic]
A Call for Moral Clarity: In the Detroit News, Oakland University President Ora Pescovitz explains her opposition to institutional neutrality. “Because public universities are not partisan, religious or ideological institutions, they should remain neutral on most issues. However, there are rare times when moral clarity, comfort, direction and leadership are required of a university president. It is at such times when I, as the institutional leader believe I must speak out. … Adopting a policy of institutional neutrality is too often used as a crutch, helping some university leaders avoid the criticism that invariably comes with university statements on complex issues. I, for one, would rather speak out, despite occasional criticism, with the hope that my statements provide moral clarity, guidance and comfort to our campus community.” [DetroitNews]
Word on the Street
Former President Donald Trump said Iran should be blown “to smithereens” if it attempts to harm U.S. presidential candidates, following a briefing with the Office of the Director National Intelligence in which government officials detailed …
Appearing on “The View,” President Joe Biden said that peace could be achieved in the Middle East — but acknowledged the possibility of “all-out war”…
Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former head of Joint Special Operations Command, announced his backing of Vice President Kamala Harris…
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley distanced herself from Trump, saying, “You’re not going to hear me say glowing things about Donald Trump’s personality… I have not forgotten what he said about me. I’ve not forgotten what he said about my husband or his deployment time…or his military service” and detailing an incident in which the Trump campaign put a birdcage outside of her hotel room and called her a “bird brain”…
The U.S. and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a body that includes Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, released a joint statement on Wednesday outlining the nations’ “strategic partnership.” Along with support for a two-state solution, the countries pledged “to work together to address Iran’s regional activities” and condemn “Islamophobia and antisemitism”…
Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT),Peter Welch (D-VT) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) introduced bills seeking to block arms sales to Israel including guided bombs, tank shells, mortars, tactical vehicles and F-15 aircraft…
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, who is in the U.S. for the U.N. General Assembly, met with Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Tom Cotton (R-AR) and John Thune (R-SD); Sheikh Mohamed also met with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo…
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez hosted a gathering on Tuesday to honor eight wounded IDF soldiers as part of a healing trip facilitated by Belev Echad; State Sen. Alexis Calatayud and State Rep. Vicki Lopez were among the attendees…
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said that former President Donald Trump’s comments that Jews would be responsible for his potential election loss were “fundamentally dangerous”…
Brandeis University President Ron Liebowitz, who garnered headlines last year for taking a strong stance against antisemitism after Oct. 7, resigned on Wednesday morning following a vote of “no confidence” passed by the Brandeis faculty, according to a letter he sent to the university community. The Tuesday faculty vote, which passed by just 10 votes, 159-149, described “a consistent pattern of damaging errors of judgment and poor leadership,” Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports…
OpenAI is planning to restructure itself as a for-profit company, potentially giving CEO Sam Altman a stake…
A library in Wilton, Conn., rescinded the writer-in-residence status of an author who was accused of antisemitism after refusing to participate in a panel at a recent literary festival in Albany, N.Y., which was to be moderated by a Jewish Zionist author…
The Free Press reports from the Detroit suburbs of West Bloomfield, which is 30% Jewish, and Dearborn, which has a sizable Arab-American population, about local voters’ opinions about the presidential candidates’ positions on the Middle East…
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and Sean “Diddy” Combs are being housed in the same section of a dormitory of Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center where high-profile inmates are generally assigned…
Paul Simon returned to the stage for a rare performance at Manhattan’s SoHo Sessions…
The Iran-backed Islamic Resistance of Iraq launched a series of drones at Eilat, striking the Israeli port city and injuring two people…
The Pentagon said it was not providing Israel with intelligence assistance in the IDF’s operations against Hezbollah…
The Wall Street Journal looks at the decisions Hezbollah is facing as it must decide whether to step up its war against Israel or back down and calm tensions…
Iran facilitated talks between Russia and the Houthis to send advanced Russian anti-ship missiles to the Iran-backed militia group in Yemen…
Yemeni Vice President Aidarous Al Zubaidi decried U.S. deterrence efforts against the Houthis, saying that the use of calibrated strikes against the group was not stopping it from disrupting shipping routes across the region…
Cantor Naftali Herstik, who led services at the Great Synagogue of Jerusalem for 30 years and performed with operas and choirs around the world, died at 77…
Pic of the Day
Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt, U.S. special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, and Rabbi Andrew Baker, American Jewish Committee’s director of international Jewish affairs (left), in conversation last night with AJC CEO Ted Deutch at the American Jewish Committee’s annual Global Jewish Diplomacy Reception, held at the Harmonie Club in New York. Read more here.
Birthdays
Professional poker player with four World Series of Poker bracelets, Josh Arieh turns 50…
Stage, film and television actor, he is best known as “The Most Interesting Man in the World” appearing in Dos Equis beer commercials, Jonathan Goldsmith turns 86… Edward Karesky… CEO of Israel Longhorn Project, dedicated to bringing Texas Longhorn cattle to Israel, Robin Rosenblatt turns 76… Five Towns, N.Y., resident, Barry Mandel… Former chairman and CEO of the French engineering conglomerate Alstom, he is the son of Holocaust survivors, Patrick Kron turns 71… Senior political adviser to President Bill Clinton during his second term and co-author of a New York Times best-seller on the future of politics in the U.S., Doug Sosnik turns 68… Chairman of Huntington National Bank, he is a former JFNA national campaign chair, Gary H. Torgow turns 68… Teaneck-resident with a Jersey City dental practice, Paul Lustiger, DDS… Historian, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Robert Kagan turns 66… VP of government affairs and public policy at Google, Mark Isakowitz… Former head coach of both the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Memphis Tigers men’s basketball teams, he was the 2017 ACC Coach of the Year, Josh Pastner turns 47… CEO of the Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty, David G. Greenfield turns 46… Former communications director for N.Y. Gov. David Paterson, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Jane Harman, she now heads a NYC based PR firm, Risa Beth Heller turns 45… Television host and producer, in 2020 he came in second on “Dancing with the Stars,” Yaniv “Nev” Schulman turns 40… NYC-based senior editor of global digital video programming at Bloomberg LP, Henry Seltzer… Assistant director of policy and government affairs at AIPAC, Joshua Nason… Joanna Weiss DiMarco turns 34… Senior director of development at Tamid Group, Alec Deer…
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