Progressive activist Sue Altman shook up the race in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District earlier this month when she announced she was entering the already packed field of Democratic candidates to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ) in the House.

Altman ran as a pro-Israel progressive when she was the Democratic nominee in the neighboring district, where she lost to Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ). She served as Sen. Andy Kim’s (D-NJ) state director before announcing her campaign to succeed Watson Coleman in a district that’s decidedly more liberal than Kean’s.

The question remains whether Altman will re-calibrate her views on Israel as she seeks to win a crowded Democratic primary in a farther-left district. In audio shared by the far-left publication Drop Site, Altman said she’s reassessing elements of her position toward Israel from 2024 and working on a new position paper. 

“A lot has happened since then. It has been a horrific tragedy,” Altman said, in an unknown setting. “I always looked up to Israel as a young person. … Israel is an important ally to the United States, but what has happened in Palestine is just horrific, and I don’t want our taxpayer money being used to kill children and women who are innocent.”

She said that people she’s spoken to feel that the war in Gaza is a “betrayal that they feel is beyond the pale.” (The war had been taking place for nearly a year when she ran for Congress in the 2024 cycle.)

Altman also said she believes that “[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and the State of Israel are not one and the same and that there’s nuance on all sides here.”

She said she would be “at least as far left as [former Rep. Tom Malinowski, the Democrat who lost his seat to Kean in 2022] if not more so” on the issue, and said she expected AIPAC and other groups might come after her, as AIPAC did with Malinowski in the recent special election in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District.

“AIPAC and countless SuperPACs are destroying our democracy by polarizing and misleading the public,” Altman said on X last week. “They tried (and failed!) in NJ-11, and now they’re trying again in [Illinois]. We need to get dark money out of politics to prevent billionaires from controlling us and getting richer!”

In the comments released by Drop Site, however, Altman appeared to mischaracterize Malinowski’s stated position. Malinowski did not rule out supporting special, specific conditions to be applied only to aid to Israel. Altman claimed that Malinowski was only seeking to enforce existing conditions that apply to all U.S. aid globally — which already apply to aid to Israel — and that AIPAC had come after him for that stance.

Middle East politics have already entered the race in other ways, with Watson Coleman saying she would not weigh in on the race other than telling voters not to support East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen, who is Jewish, calling him a “hard-line supporter” of Netanyahu.

Cohen held a substantial fundraising lead as of the end of the year — though he was surpassed by Altman in her first day in the race — and is likely to receive the support of the Middlesex County Democratic establishment. Middlesex voters made up around 40% of the district’s voter population in recent elections, according to Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

Also running are other local officials, including Plainfield Mayor Adrian Mapp and state Rep. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson, both of whom are likely to pick up the support of local Democratic officials in their areas. 

The candidacy of Adam Hamawy, a physician and veteran who volunteered as a doctor in Gaza and has been an acerbic critic of Israel, could be of particular concern to the district’s Jewish community.

Dan Cassino, the executive director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, said that Altman became the immediate front-runner upon entering the race, and that her biggest weakness in the 7th District, where she was perceived as too liberal to win a swing district, will not be an issue in this district.

“She can also raise lots of money, which might help to box out some other potential challengers, as it did when she ran in the 7th last cycle,” Cassino said.

Rasmussen said that Altman is hoping for a “divide-and-conquer” strategy — relying on other candidates such as Cohen, Mapp and Reynolds-Jackson to be siloed in their counties and hoping she’ll be able to win support across county lines. 

Rasmussen added that if Altman is able to turn out progressive voters like Analila Mejia did in the 11th District special election primary, she’d be well-positioned to win.

But, unlike Mejia, who ultimately had the progressive lane largely to herself in the 11th District, Altman will have serious competition, including Reynolds-Jackson and Hamawy.

“What we don’t know is, are they going to have to share [the progressive lane] or is [Altman] going to be able to consolidate?” Rasmussen said. “You can have a really solid progressive record, but get out-organized and out-worked, then that record won’t count for much. … What Altman has in common with Mejia is both are organizers in that movement, know who to reach and how to fire them up and get them interested in voting.”

He said that attacks on Altman as a carpet-bagger don’t seem especially viable, noting that they were not particularly salient against Malinowski in the 11th District special election, and the district is already large and geographically diverse.

Among the field of nearly 20 candidates, Rasmussen said that Hamawy would be the one he would assess as most likely to have a surprise breakout from the field in a way similar to Mejia in the 11th District. “Given his very interesting life story, his very interesting professional background, I would say there’s a chance that captures people’s attention, that captures people’s interest.”

Generally, Rasmussen said, the county Democratic establishment might be able to push a favored candidate, such as Cohen, over the line but it will take serious dedication and effort, which is not guaranteed. Recent elections have shown the establishment no longer has the heft it once did.