Dana Stroul, the director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior Defense Department official in the Biden administration, warned on Wednesday that the Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha is leading Arab states to rally around Qatar, potentially dealing setbacks to regional normalization.

Stroul, speaking at an American Jewish Committee event in Washington to mark the five-year anniversary of the Abraham Accords, said that Arab leaders are offering support for Qatar following the strike, and that both Israeli and Iranian moves to make the Gulf a “new battlefield in the Middle East” are making the U.S.’ regional partners “very nervous.”

“It is really disappointing that not one [Arab] government acknowledged Hamas,” Stroul said. “What’s very clear is that everyone else in the region is aligned that this was a strike on Qatar,” as opposed to a strike on Hamas. “This is about Qatari sovereignty. We’ve seen really a shoring up of Arab leaders’ alignment with and defense of Qatar.”

She said that there had been relatively little criticism in the region for Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear program, undermining Hezbollah or helping bring down the Assad regime in Syria, but “this time Israeli military action didn’t happen on what everyone sort of agrees is an adversary … that was a major non-NATO ally of the United States who is actively participating in diplomatic processes.”

“Now we have the leader of the [United Arab Emirates], who years ago was the leader of the Gulf Rift in isolating Qatar — he just went to Qatar,” she continued, noting as well that Israel was disinvited today from the Dubai Air Show, where it had a significant presence in previous years.

“The risk is actually that these kinds of actions do set back the cause of normalization and integration,” she continued. 

She also called Qatar, as the host of the U.S. air base in the region, a critical hub of regional defense integration efforts.

Another crucial question, she added, is how the Hamas military leadership in Gaza holding the remaining living hostages will react to the Doha strike. 

“I’m very, very worried about the hostages,” she said.

She said it’s unlikely that the strikes will make Hamas leaders in Gaza more willing to negotiate or release hostages. The dispute between the U.S. and Israel over the strikes, compounded by growing international criticism of Israel, could further harden their resolve to not negotiate or compromise.

Stroul said that the strike’s apparent failure to kill any of the senior echelon of Hamas leaders could make it a “worst-case scenario,” in which Hamas leaders are less incentivized to negotiate and could cause Qatar to withdraw from any further mediation. 

She added that it’s unclear how ceasefire negotiations can continue, and that parties may look to Egypt to step up as the new mediator, placing it in a potentially precarious position.

She said it was common knowledge in the region that the Hamas leaders are “dead men walking,” but said it’s an “open question” whether now was the right time to carry out that strike, or its broader implications.

Stroul also said that Qatar had never been formally asked to expel the Hamas leaders — she said that former Secretary of State Tony Blinken had asked the Qataris to do so in late 2024 when ceasefire talks yielded little progress, but the Trump administration’s special envoy Steve Witkoff asked that be walked back so that he could continue talks. Stroul was out of government at the time.

And she said that Qatar’s support of Hamas pre-Oct. 7, frequently cited by the country’s critics, was conducted with Israel’s knowledge and support, and that of the United States.