Former Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), one of the most virulently anti-Israel members of Congress during her tenure in Washington, is expected to launch a rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO), who defeated her in 2024, according to political observers in St. Louis.

Local Jewish leaders expect the primary campaign to be a bitter repeat of the 2024 campaign, which focused heavily on Israel. Bell, who garnered substantial support from the Jewish community locally and pro-Israel groups nationally, has remained a strong supporter of Israel in office, even amid criticism from local progressive activists.

Braxton Payne, a St. Louis-based political strategist, described Bush’s intentions as “the worst-kept secret” and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported she may launch as early as this week, citing sources close to her campaign.

Payne said that this cycle, when Bell is still a freshman, would be Bush’s best chance of ousting Bell and reclaiming her seat.

“Her strongest place is inside the city [of St. Louis] and you’re seeing… a strong pendulum swinging in regards to the conflict in Gaza and Palestine, and I think that is going to be probably one of her main narratives that she’ll lead with,” Payne told Jewish Insider. “Among some of the progressive votes, especially among her base in St. Louis City, I think she’s going to do fairly well with those people.”

But one of Bush’s biggest vulnerabilities, he continued, is that she failed, once in office, to engage with or show up for major local groups and organized labor. 

“That still seems to be the case. … And Wesley has made a conscious effort to do so, not only with organized labor that may have backed him, but people and organizations that did not back him,” Payne continued, “which I think is obviously important to currying favor among voters — and obviously large groups that have power, influence and, of course, money.”

Payne said that the race is likely to be close, and that there will likely be similar interest in the race from outside groups, like AIPAC, that invested heavily in 2024. Primary turnout could be impacted by other referenda on the ballot, which could fuel Democratic primary turnout.

Missouri recently redrew its congressional maps and, while Bell’s district was not changed significantly, the redrawn map includes a few additional precincts that may be more favorable to Bell, according to Payne, though the impacts will likely be minor. The maps also face various legal challenges.

Bush’s campaign is also $13,000 in debt, and she’ll need significant grassroots support and/or backing from a group like Justice Democrats to fill her coffers, Payne noted. 

Her husband is facing a federal indictment for COVID relief aid fraud, a controversy Payne said has garnered public attention. Bush herself faced House Ethics Committee and Department of Justice investigations during her time in office.

At the same time, Payne noted, the strategy for groups backing Bell, including organized labor and AIPAC, is unknown. If AIPAC gets involved in the race, “even if they spend a bunch of money, does that actually end up hurting him with voters more than it does helping him?”

Bell’s supporters are signaling that they’re ready for a fight.

“Cori Bush spent her scandal-ridden time in Washington looking out for herself, while hiding from her constituents and ignoring their needs,” a Democratic strategist familiar with the Bell campaign’s thinking said. “As a result, Missouri voters kicked her out of office, and elected Wesley Bell, who promised to deliver better and more accountable representation. St. Louis is better off with a congressman who is focused every day on delivering for them, than someone who is more interested in furthering her personal agenda.”

Jewish leaders who supported Bell’s campaign also say that they are preparing for the campaign ahead, and a retread of the ugly 2024 race.

“The mainstream Jewish community is very much united in supporting Wesley Bell, and obviously not supporting Cori Bush for all of the same reasons we were not going to support her last time,” Rabbi Jeffrey Abraham, who helped organize a coalition of rabbis to oppose Bush in the previous campaign, told Jewish Insider. “The Jewish community, I’m confident, is going to rally again to support Wesley and hopefully make sure that he wins.”

He said he’s hopeful that leaders who did not get involved in the previous race might get involved to back Bell this time. “Jewish community leaders are ready to jump back in however we’re needed.”

Stacey Newman, a former state lawmaker who led Jewish outreach on Bell’s campaign team, agreed that the “mainstream Jewish community has remained organized and united” — in addition to feeling the impacts of antisemitism hit home in a recent firebombing incident.

“We won’t have to start from scratch,” Newman continued. “We still have 30-plus rabbis willing to go to work. I know the Orthodox community who typically do not vote Democrat are very thankful for Wesley’s leadership. He’s one of the few Democrats in St. Louis who are willing to support our community publicly.”