Since Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor, there’s been a fascinating disconnect between the polls showing Mamdani still vulnerable in the general election and the sclerosis among political leaders unable to make the tough decisions on whether to rally behind an alternative in a bid to stop the socialist candidate from becoming the next mayor.

There hasn’t been much good polling since the primary, but the most recent general election surveys all paint a picture of Mamdani leading the race with a plurality, but far below what a typical Democratic nominee should be receiving after a stunning, come-from-behind defeat of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. 

One poll, conducted by the Democratic firm Slingshot Strategies between July 2-6, found Mamdani winning 35% of registered voters, Cuomo at 25%, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa tallying 14%, Mayor Eric Adams at 11% and attorney Jim Walden at 1%. Thirteen percent said they were undecided.

A late-June poll by the GOP firm American Pulse found Mamdani at 35%, Cuomo at 29%, Sliwa winning 16% and Adams with 14%. Asked whether they were leaning towards voting for Mamdani or anyone but Mamdani, it was close to an even split, with 48% leaning towards Mamdani and 46% preferring anyone else.

Of note, both polls found the combined Cuomo and Adams vote — which roughly encompasses the lion’s share of the moderate Democratic electorate — narrowly outpacing Mamdani’s share of support. In other words, the Mamdani alternative wouldn’t necessarily need a large portion of the Republican vote to prevail. 

The obvious challenge for the anti-Mamdani forces is consolidating the field behind one leading opponent — or at least encouraging one of the two Democratic candidates in the race to drop out and endorse the other one. That’s a lot easier said than done. 

The Cuomo camp rightly claims that, on paper, their numbers are stronger than the scandal-plagued Adams. The Adams camp rightly argues that Cuomo had his chance after blowing a very winnable race, thanks to a lackluster campaign operation and a lack of energy on the campaign trail — traits that won’t bode well for a general election rematch.

Both sides are correct in that all the Mamdani alternatives are seriously flawed. But looking at summer polls to predict how things could develop throughout the summer is a foolhardy exercise. After all, as we’ve written in these pages, the argument for defeating Mamdani doesn’t rest on the strength of the challenger, but the desire to build a broad coalition to stop a far-left activist from taking charge of the nation’s largest city. 

Adams, as the incumbent, might be the better vehicle to put together that coalition despite his dismal favorability ratings right now. He’s already shown more agility as a general election candidate, framing the race between a silver-spooned socialist (Mamdani) against his blue-collar background.

On paper, Adams also seems better-positioned to win over enough Black voters and some crossover Republicans that Cuomo would likely struggle more in turning out. Cuomo is viewed as a partisan villain to most New York Republicans, and Adams has shown resilience with Black voters in his early campaign efforts.  

But regardless of who is the strongest alternative, outside groups and business leaders need to start picking a side now if they have any hope of blocking Mamdani’s path to Gracie Mansion. It’s notable that most of the state’s top elected leaders — from Gov. Kathy Hochul to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have still not endorsed Mamdani, even though he was declared winner of the primary over two weeks ago.

The longer the anti-Mamdani forces wait to make their move, the easier it becomes for him to consolidate enough Democratic support to make the efforts even harder. The reality is the fear of failure is as significant for many of these stakeholders as the desire to prevent a far-left candidate from taking over Gracie Mansion.