The newly open Senate race in Iowa could pit a House Republican seen as a conventional conservative against challengers likely to attack her from the right. The race could also be an early bellwether of the GOP’s direction as it moves toward the post-Trump era.

Multiple outlets reported on Friday that Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will drop her bid for reelection in 2026 and retire from the Senate at the end of her current term. A member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Ernst has been a staunch ally of Israel and an Iran hawk in the upper chamber, traveling to the region repeatedly since Oct. 7, 2023, and serving as a co-chair of the Abraham Accords Caucus.

Ernst has been vocal in calling for ramping up U.S. pressure on Qatar to squeeze Hamas to release the hostages being held in Gaza, and has been a champion of efforts to integrate American, Israeli and Arab defensive systems in the region, including air and missile defense.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), a former local news anchor and state representative elected to Congress in 2020, is widely seen as likely to make a run for Ernst’s seat. She’s been an ally of Ernst as the senator has faced right-wing attacks..

In the House, Hinson has a consistent record of support for the U.S.-Israel relationship and legislation to combat antisemitism, and has signed onto congressional letters criticizing international legal cases against Israel and supporting the Abraham Accords. She supported the U.S. strikes on Iran earlier this summer.

Hinson called the U.S.-Israel relationship “absolutely imperative … for both of our countries,” in 2020. “We look at not only the partnerships for security, but also for economic development, research, medicine. There are so many ways our countries are helping each other, and I think that relationship is invaluable both from the past and going forward.”

Hinson has been endorsed in previous races by AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Her House campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Should she enter the race, she’ll face the prospect of running against lesser-known, right-wing Republicans like Jim Carlin, a former state senator who entered the race to challenge Ernst from the right.

Carlin has framed himself as a “reliable ally to President [Donald] Trump, not an adversary.” He has attacked Ernst for decisions including her vote in support of additional U.S. support for Ukraine.

“America First isn’t a slogan — it’s a governing philosophy. It means protecting American borders before foreign ones. It means putting our economy, our people, and our future ahead of global interests,” Carlin’s campaign site reads. “We need our allies to step up and pay their fair share.”

He added that European allies should “[pay] their fair share and [handle] their own issues. We’ve given them enough,” opposed additional aid to Ukraine and said that the “war must stop now!”

Carlin put up a meager showing in a primary challenge against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in 2022, picking up just 27% of the primary vote.

NBC News reported that Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO and former acting attorney general, may also be interested in the seat. He ran against Ernst in the 2014 GOP primary, only winning 8% of the vote. But as a Trump loyalist, he could have a shot at landing Trump’s endorsement, which could prove a problem for other potential candidates.

Whitaker, prior to his service in Brussels, had little foreign policy experience or record, but during his confirmation hearing said the Trump administration’s commitment to the mutual defense agreements enshrined in Article V of the NATO treaty were “ironclad.” He has also called on European allies to spend more on their own defense and provide additional support to Ukraine.

Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host, also declared his candidacy against Ernst. On his X account, Smith has been a critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship, saying “Joni definitely stands with Israel (money),” Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and “Iran is not a threat to America. Palestine is not a threat to America.”

Smith has opposed U.S. aid for Israel, suggested Israel is attempting a genocide, said that “you can’t be antiwar and support the continued support of the US for Israel,” claimed that Jews suffer from a “Jewish victim complex” and alleged that the U.S. attempted to “make Christianity antisemitic and outlaw criticism of Israel.”

Democrats are expected to make an aggressive bid for the seat in the general election, and several have already entered the primary race, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris.

David Yepsen, a longtime former political writer, editor and columnist at the Des Moines Register, told Jewish Insider that Hinson is the likely favorite if she gets in the race, but that she could face a real challenge from her right. 

Yepsen said that Hinson had previously been seen as more of a moderate, though she has recently made efforts to align herself more closely with Trump and the MAGA wing of the GOP.

Yepsen predicted a “really good race” in the general election, given that Democrats have already fielded several contenders, have put up strong showings in recent state special elections, have been energized by opposition to the Trump administration and have an advantage in the midterms. 

Yepsen added that, given the open Senate seat, an open gubernatorial race, multiple competitive House races and the developing presidential primary race, the coming cycle is likely to be an “unprecedented race in modern Iowa politics.” 

“There are plenty of Iowa Republicans who are not MAGAs, who are not Trump people, who just wanted somebody else,” he said. “It’s going to be played out on the ground, these early things about what the Republican Party is, what it stands for, what it’s going to be going forward. There are national implications to what goes on here in Iowa.”

Yepsen said that Ernst’s retirement is not likely to be a surprise to many in the state, given her clashes with Trump-aligned conservatives in the state and other recent scandals and public missteps. Democrats, he added, have seen her as vulnerable.