Early poll shows Levin and Stevens tied in primary matchup
Poll shows several key advantages for Levin heading into member-on-member primary
U.S. House of Representatives
A new poll in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District shows Reps. Andy Levin (D-MI) and Haley Stevens (D-MI) tied for support in one of the more closely watched member-on-member primaries following redistricting across the country.
The poll of 400 Democratic primary voters in the district, conducted last week from Feb. 1 to 3 by Michigan firm Target Insyght, showed both candidates with 41% support, with a margin of error of 5%. Eighteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.
Target Insyght Executive Director Ed Sarpolus told Jewish Insider that the poll shows several key advantages for Levin.
Levin leads Stevens by 10 points in name recognition — 63% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Levin and 21% said they had no opinion or were unfamiliar with him, while 53% said they had a favorable opinion of Stevens and 31% said they were unfamiliar.
Levin also holds an advantage among female, Black and senior voters, all of whom, Sarpolus said, are key demographics in the district’s Democratic electorate. Levin was up 42% to 28% among Black voters in the head-to-head matchup and 46% to 29% among women. Among seniors, Levin led Stevens 47% to 38%. Stevens led among men, 56% to 35%.
Sarpolus noted that, while Stevens’s current constituents make up a larger portion of the new district, Levin leads in some of the more heavily Democratic areas in the southern portion of the district, which he currently represents. That area also has more Black voters.
“The areas that he does the best in — where most of the Democrats are based — have been represented by the Levin family for decades,” Sarpolus said. “Some of these votes are not going to leave the Levin name because they’ve known them for decades.”
Levin’s father is former Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI), who represented the Detroit area in Congress for 36 years, and his uncle is former Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), who served in the Senate for 36 years.
“Levin has an advantage coming out, which we expected, but he’s not dominating this race,” Sarpolus said.
Stevens does better in the northern and western portions of the district, where more of her current constituents live, “but that’s where there are fewer Democrats,” Sarpolus continued.
There are “still plenty of areas” with many undecided voters, “so there’s plenty of areas where either one can make up the difference,” Saroplus continued. “But Haley Stevens is going to have to fight harder for some of these votes than Andy Levin will… because of [familial] name recognition.