An unfolding scandal implicating Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) could catapult an anti-Israel social media influencer with a history of antisemitic posts to Congress in Texas’ upcoming 23rd District Republican primary.

Brandon Herrera, who ran against Gonzales in 2024, came under fire from Gonzales and Jewish and pro-Israel groups in the previous election cycle over a series of YouTube videos replete with imagery, music and jokes about the Nazi regime and the Holocaust. He also expressed opposition to U.S. aid to Israel.

But Tuesday evening, corroborating a long-running rumor, the San Antonio Express News reported that Gonzales had been having an extramarital affair with a female staffer who died by suicide last year. The Express News reported that the relationship was allegedly well-known to staffers and cited multiple sources close to the woman, including a former colleague, and a text message she sent confirming the relationship prior to her death.

Both Gonzales and the woman were married to other people at the time of the relationship and had children. Gonzales’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment from Jewish Insider, though he has previously denied the affair.

The Express News’ editorial board announced, hours after the paper broke the story, that it was withdrawing its endorsement of Gonzales.

“The affair is troubling for many reasons,” the editorial board wrote. “First, it is an act of deception. Gonzales is married and has six children. Second, this was not an equal relationship but one involving a staffer. Third, while an attorney for Santos-Aviles’ husband has said he does not believe the affair played a role in the suicide by self-immolation at her home in Uvalde, it still looms over the tragedy.”

Herrera demanded that Gonzales drop out of the race and resign, warning that Gonzales clinching the Republican nomination could allow Democrats to flip the seat in November. 

“[Gonzales] not only broke House ethics rules by having an adulterous affair with a member of his congressional staff and by using taxpayer money to fund the affair, but he also broke trust with the public by insisting that the initial reporting of the affair was false,” Herrera said. “If he prevails in the primary and becomes our party’s nominee in the general election, Democrats will seize the opportunity to flip a reliable Republican seat blue.”

Democrats have an outside shot of flipping the district, which voted for President Donald Trump by 15 points in 2024, in November.

“It’s shameful that Brandon Herrera is using a disgruntled former staffer to smear her memory and score political points, conveniently pushing this out the very day early voting started,” Gonzales responded in a statement to The Texas Tribune. “I am not going to engage in these personal smears and instead will remain focused on helping President Trump secure the border and improve the lives of all Texans.”

The late staffer’s husband said in an interview on Wednesday, his first time speaking out about the situation, that Gonzales had “abused his power” and that his wife’s mental state deteriorated after he discovered the affair and the spouses separated. He said he did not believe she was trying to kill herself, but that it was “a cry for help that turned into a tragedy.”

He said he wants Gonzales to face accountability and criticized the congressman for “pushing, you know, family values and Christian morals … denying the fact that he’s ruined somebody’s life.”

Gonzales narrowly beat Herrera in a head-to-head primary runoff in 2024, 51%-49%, a margin of less than 400 votes. Herrera has spent the last two years on the campaign trail, gearing up for a rematch.

Even before the scandal broke, a Political Intelligence (PI) poll published last week by the Daily Caller showed that Herrera led Gonzales 33%-29% among likely Republican primary voters, growing his lead to 43%-34% in a head-to-head matchup. 

Neither the AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project nor the Republican Jewish Coalition, which collectively spent $1.4 million opposing Herrera in 2024, responded to inquiries about whether they plan to be involved in the race again this year.

Gonzales maintains a significant lead over Herrera in fundraising, closing out 2025 with $2.5 million on hand to Herrera’s $722,000. If neither candidate breaks 50% in the primary election, the highest vote-getters will advance to a head-to-head run-off election.

Two other Republican candidates, former Rep. Quico Canseco (R-TX) and veteran Keith Barton, are also in the race, but both trail significantly in fundraising.

Gonzales also has the backing of Trump, despite efforts by Herrera to tie himself to the president. Trump sent a cease-and-desist letter to Herrera’s campaign in January demanding that he stop using Trump’s image in campaign materials, which a Trump representative called misleading.

Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, noted to Jewish Insider that the report came days into the early voting period, putting the issue front-and-center for voters as they head to the polls.

But the extent of the story’s impact, he continued, will depend on how much voters are aware of it — whether they’re seeing it repeatedly in conservative media and to what extent the Herrera campaign invests in spreading the news widely, and through what channels. He also noted that the latest reporting will likely be most voters’ first exposure to the story.

“I think it’s complicated, and I think it’s definitely not good,” Steinhauser said. “The news is tragic and horrible, and he clearly made bad decisions, and the voters are going to have their say on that, and we’ll see what they do.”

Steinhauser predicted that the race is likely to go to a runoff, and said some voters might also stay home, if they have negative views of both candidates.

When the results are tallied, the impact of the story may be measurable, he added, in whether Gonzales’ share of the votes drops from the start of early voting to later in the early voting period and election day ballots.

The revelations about Gonzales will also make it harder for Republicans to hold onto the seat in November, with both potential Republican nominees now carrying baggage into the general election. “If I were the Democrats, I would probably be looking at investing more money here,” Steinhauser said.

Mark Jones, a Texas pollster and political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, said that Gonzales has “had a whirlwind” turnaround from solidifying the support of the president and the GOP establishment to the latest revelations. 

Though rumors had been circulating for a number of months about the affair, “it’s one thing to have them be allegations with him denying them, and another thing for it to be increasingly credible evidence that not only was he having an affair with this woman, but then he was disingenuous in terms of his responses and when questioned about it,” Jones said.

Jones added that Trump’s response, if any, to the news would be decisive, given the president’s immense popularity and the value of his endorsement with Texas voters.

He said that the Gonzales scandal is most likely to be a problem for Republicans in November if there is a “continued drip, drip of information that increasingly links Congressman Gonzales to this woman’s death.”

“Herrera has a fair point, certainly, the Tony Gonzales without this whole incident is a much stronger candidate than the Tony Gonzales with this incident,” he continued, while arguing that Gonzales is still likely to be “viewed more positively than Herrera” — and, as a moderate, is better aligned with the district — particularly if Democrats spend millions on an anti-Herrera campaign.