With all of the living hostages released from Gaza and an end (at least for the time being) of Israel’s war in the Palestinian territory, the coming months could offer the mainstream Jewish community something of a breather to assess the changed political landscape. 

In the war’s final months, the anti-Israel far left gained a foothold in Democratic Party politics, most prominently in the New York City mayoral race with Zohran Mamdani, but also in urban contests ranging from Seattle to Somerville, Mass. The antisemitic forces on the far right have been less of a political force, but have gained strength on podcasts and among younger right-wingers, and have been embraced to a greater extent by a few populist lawmakers like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). 

With the return of the living hostages, Israel’s success in degrading Hamas and additional enemies, and the apparent end of the Gaza war, Jewish optimists can plausibly argue that some degree of normalcy could creep back in the political sphere. Israel should become a less salient issue for low-information scrollers, with the war’s end reducing the constant anti-Israel and antisemitic propaganda being fed on so many screens. 

With a ceasefire finally achieved, the anti-Israel forces have been remarkably silent, and have been exposed for the Hamas-sympathizing extremists that they always have been. That faction of the anti-Israel Democratic left is as politically exposed as it’s been since the immediate aftermath of Oct. 7, 2023.

There’s also the possibility that, with Israeli elections being held next year, a new Israeli prime minister would get elected, bringing with him or her a new Israeli government that may not be as polarizing to liberal critics of Israel back in the U.S. 

Jewish pessimists also have a plausible case to make. Support for Israel has declined in the past year, with the most significant slippage coming from Democratic Party voters and some independents. It’s hard to imagine it will rebound anytime soon. The youngest Gen Z voters are the most hostile towards Israel and have been even before Oct. 7. It’s reasonable to expect their future growth in the electorate will only grow the pool of anti-Israel voters.  

Furthermore, the rise of anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiment isn’t happening in isolation; it’s a symptom of the rise of larger illiberal and extreme forces within both parties. The fact that polls show an upward tick in the toleration of political violence, growing antipathy to capitalism on the left, and growing sympathy for authoritarianism on the right is the broader context of the growing hostility Jews are facing, and it’s not showing any signs of abatement.

In the coming year, it will be important to track whether the political outlook for Jews is getting better or whether the trends we’ve seen worsen in the last couple years are accelerating. 

We’ll be debuting an election scorecard next week, examining the most meaningful elections in the coming year that will test the influence of the political mainstream against the extremes. Stay tuned: it will be worth bookmarking and tracking as we approach Election Day this November, and in the runup to next year’s congressional primaries.

We’ve written a lot about the so-called horseshoe theory of U.S. politics and foreign policy — the point at which the far left and the far right coalesce into agreement — but the Israeli campaign against Iranian military and nuclear targets is providing a particularly stark example of that convergence. The two factions find themselves openly and publicly aligned in opposition to any form of U.S. intervention in Israel’s campaign and against Israel’s operations in general.

An X post by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) on Sunday provided a distillation of that dynamic. Greene claimed that a regional war or global war, which would likely overwhelm the Middle East, BRICS and NATO, is inevitable and that countries would be “required to take a side.” She continued, “I don’t want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed. … And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!!”

Among those who supported Greene’s post were CodePink activist Medea Benjamin, who praised Greene’s “incredibly strong anti-war position!” and Drop Site News co-founder Ryan Grim, who called the Georgia Republican “presently the most sensible member of Congress.” Doug Stafford, the chief strategist for Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), shared Benjamin’s post — and has repeatedly shared and praised both her and Code Pink in the wake of the Israeli operation. Read more here.

It’s not just Greene and Stafford. A host of prominent figures on the right, such as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and former Pentagon senior advisor Dan Caldwell are touting narratives about the conflict that would not be out of place at a far-left anti-Israel rally.

Recent reporting from Semafor indicates that some inside the administration, particularly Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, are also reportedly trying to limit U.S. support for Israel. A source familiar with the situation told Jewish Insider they’ve heard similar chatter coming from the administration. Conservative radio show host Mark Levin said he’d been “informed” that the report was incorrect. 

On both ends of the horseshoe, many are downplaying or outright rejecting the notion that Iran was close to or even pursuing a nuclear weapon, comparing the idea to the disproven claims that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction that prompted the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and in some cases denying claims Iran attempted to assassinate President Donald Trump.

Voices on both political extremes are also framing Israel as the villain in the conflict, and a perpetrator of unprovoked aggression and atrocities.

And they’re warning that a continued Israeli campaign will inevitably transform into a regional and ultimately global war that will suck the U.S. into an endless quagmire in the Middle East.

Though they haven’t all gone as far as Greene, prominent progressive Democrats in Congress are also warning of significant potential consequences from the conflict. Likely coming soon: a congressional vote aiming to prevent U.S. military action against Iran without specific congressional authorization.

A tweet by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) opposing U.S. support for Israel’s ongoing campaign against Iran is bringing into sharp relief the convergence between the far left and far right in opposition to the Israeli operation.

Greene, posting on X on Sunday, lambasted “fake” America First leaders, arguing “the list of fakes are becoming quite long and exposed themselves quickly. Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA. Wishing for murder of innocent people is disgusting.”

She went on to claim that a regional war or global war, which would likely overwhelm the Middle East, BRICS and NATO, is inevitable and that “countries are required to take a side.” 

“I don’t want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed,” Greene said. “And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!!”

The Georgia Republican went on to deny that Iran was close to attaining a nuclear weapon and suggested that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons was not particularly significant because “more countries than is public have some sort of nuclear capabilities.”

Greene also repeatedly denied that she was antisemitic.

That post has won plaudits from prominent far-left figures, including Code Pink activist Medea Benjamin and Drop Site News co-founder Ryan Grim.

“You don’t have to agree with [Greene] on everything to applaud her incredibly strong anti-war position!” Benjamin wrote. “Yes, we are sick and tired of foreign wars. All of them. And yes, we don’t want to be forced to pay for them.”

Benjamin’s post was reshared by Doug Stafford, the chief strategist for Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who has repeatedly re-shared and praised Benjamin and Code Pink in the wake of the Israeli operation.

Grim also re-shared Greene’s post, calling her “presently the most sensible member of Congress.”

David Friedman, the former U.S. ambassador to Israel, responded to Greene that her comments were not antisemitic, but “just stupid.”

“We all want peace and we all love our country. What we don’t want is a radical, America-hating Islamist dictator getting a nuke that will be within range of the USA within a few years (if not less). If you don’t think that risk is real, get better intel,” Friedman said.