We’re well into September, and the state of play in the New York City mayoral race hasn’t changed much in the last couple months, despite the many eye-catching developments. But a new New York Times/Siena poll released this week showcases an in-depth picture of the city’s electorate — one that is clearly wary of Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s brand of socialism, even as he remains the clear favorite to become the next mayor.

As has always been the case, the divided field of Mamdani opponents is the far-left candidate’s biggest asset. Mamdani leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 15 points among registered voters, 41-26%, with all the candidates on the ballot. But in a head-to-head matchup, Cuomo pulls narrowly ahead, 46-45%.

The results continue to underscore how the splintered field is the biggest reason Mamdani is favored. Hardly any of the supporters of Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, or Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa would support Mamdani over Cuomo if their candidate dropped out. Indeed, among those not supporting Mamdani, over half (52%) said they would never support him for mayor — higher than any other candidate.

Working in Mamdani’s favor is the relatively respectable favorability rating he holds with New York City voters, especially in comparison to his rivals. Nearly half (49%) of respondents viewed Mamdani favorably, with only 35% viewing him unfavorably. That means that despite holding a record far to the left of past New York City mayors, many voters aren’t (yet) holding that against him. But there’s been no significant outside advertising effort against Mamdani, as you would typically expect in the run-up to a high-stakes contest.

Without any effort to remind voters about his far-left record, it’s no surprise that the fresh-faced political newcomer has a respectable image. 

Cuomo, on the other hand, has an underwater favorability rating, with 42% viewing him favorably and 51% viewing him unfavorably — largely a result of the ethical scandal he faced that forced him to resign as governor. 

But on the issues, it’s easy to see how Cuomo remains competitive in a one-on-one matchup. Crime is the top issue for New York City voters, with 26% naming it as the most important problem facing voters, slightly ahead of affordability at 24%. One of Mamdani’s biggest vulnerabilities is his long record of public comments supporting defunding the police and others critical of the NYPD.

One of the most notable findings is the decline in support for Israel in New York City, which has the largest Jewish population of any city in the world. By an 18-point margin, more New Yorkers now say they sympathize with the Palestinians than the Israelis — a finding that mirrors the growing partisanship in views towards the Jewish state. While white New Yorkers still favor Israel more (42-34%), Black (54-14%) and Hispanic voters (44-25%) overwhelmingly side with the Palestinians.