Zohran Mamdani is set to prevail thanks to a divided opposition and backing from an enthusiastic left-wing faction of the electorate — not because he’s winning over hearts and minds in Gotham
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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani answers questions on October 17, 2025 in New York City.
A new Quinnipiac poll of the New York City mayoral race with less than a week until Election Day shows Zohran Mamdani on track to win, but with a narrow plurality that underscores the breadth and resilience of the political opposition against him. In short, he’s set to prevail thanks to a divided opposition and backing from an enthusiastic left-wing faction of the electorate — not because he’s winning over hearts and minds in Gotham.
If the polling is accurate, Mamdani would be the first New York City mayor to win without a majority of the vote since John Lindsay in 1969. Mamdani leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 43-33% in the Quinnipiac poll, with Republican Curtis Sliwa tallying 14%. Mamdani, in a sign of his political ceiling, has lost several points of support since the pollster’s survey earlier this month.
Among Sliwa voters, 55% said that Cuomo was their second choice, while only 7% said the same of Mamdani. If New York City utilized a ranked-choice voting system as it did in the primary, this race would be neck-and-neck.
The Quinnipiac poll finds Mamdani building an unconventional coalition of secular progressives and Muslims in New York City politics, running up the score with voters of no religion (71% support) or of a religion other than Christianity and Judaism (50%). Mamdani struggles badly with Jewish voters, winning just 16% support, while only receiving 28% of the vote among Catholics and 36% among Protestants.
Mamdani is winning support from just 59% of Democrats, with 31% backing Cuomo — an unusually weak showing for a Democratic nominee. But Republicans are evenly divided between Cuomo and Sliwa, preventing the former governor from capitalizing on Mamdani’s deep unpopularity with GOP voters. Mamdani is tied with Cuomo among independents at 34% apiece.
There are some indications that the late wave of negative attacks Cuomo has aimed at Mamdani — invoking his embrace of a controversial imam, raising questions about his commitments to fighting Islamic extremism and his ties to antisemitic influencer Hasan Piker — have dented the front-runner’s favorability a bit. Mamdani’s +4 favorability rating in the Quinnipiac poll (45-41%) is a notch worse than his +8 favorability rating (45-37%) in Quinnipiac’s early October poll.
But Cuomo’s favorability remains decidedly worse, with a 54% majority viewing the former governor unfavorably and 34% viewing him favorably. Cuomo resigned from the governorship amid scandal and allegations of sexual misconduct.
The results suggest that an earlier and more aggressive attack against Mamdani from a better-organized anti-Mamdani coalition could have paid dividends. If the opposition hit Mamdani on his vulnerabilities on crime and safety — especially given his recent tone-deaf comments on the 9/11 terror attack — it could plausibly have laid out a more effective narrative that he’s too extreme to lead the nation’s biggest city.
But the last-minute nature of the Cuomo attacks feel more like the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game.
The one silver lining for Cuomo: There’s only a week of early voting in New York City, and because of the exorbitant cost of airing on New York City television, the swarm of campaign ads doesn’t hit full force until the campaign’s final weeks. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for the first time in the general election, donated $1.5 million to a pro-Cuomo super PAC, an indicator he sees the race getting closer.
That means that even though Mamdani remains the clear favorite, Cuomo still has a narrow path to a political comeback if he can convince enough Republican Sliwa voters to quietly cast a vote for him to stop the democratic socialist.
The NYC Democrat said he asked Mamdani to speak out against anti-Israel violence but ‘I frankly haven’t really seen him do much on that’
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) outside the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building on August 07, 2025 in New York City.
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) said on Tuesday, just days before early voting starts in the New York City mayoral race, that he is still not ready to endorse Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, as he hasn’t seen the candidate assuage Jewish communal concerns.
Appearing on CNN, Goldman said he wasn’t sure if he would vote for Mamdani or his rival, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and that he’s “trying to work through” outstanding issues he has with the candidates.
“You know, I’m a Democrat at heart and I believe in the Democratic Party. I am very concerned about some of the rhetoric coming from Zohran Mamdani, and I can tell you as a Jew in New York who was in Israel on Oct. 7, I and many other people are legitimately scared because there has been violence in the name of anti-Israel, anti-Zionism,” said Goldman, a pro-Israel Democrat whose House district, covering Lower Manhattan and a swath of Brooklyn, leans heavily to the left.
“I’ve asked [Mamdani] to speak out on that and to condemn that and I frankly haven’t really seen him do much on that. And I believe, for my personal reasons as well as my professional reasons as a representative of New York City, that it is my duty to make sure that everybody, including the Jewish community, feels safe here, and many in the Jewish community do not feel safe right now,” the congressman continued.
“And I hope that Mr. Mamdani takes that to heart and takes some action to make the Jewish community understand that he will keep us safe and secure,” he concluded.
Goldman is one of several Democratic New York lawmakers who have refused to endorse their party’s candidate for Gracie Mansion, including swing district Reps. Laura Gillen (D-NY) and Tom Suozzi (D-NY) as well as George Latimer (D-NY).
Other prominent New York Democrats including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have met with Mamdani but have held back endorsements.
Only five New York City Democratic lawmakers in the state’s congressional delegation have endorsed Mamdani: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Jerry Nadler (D-NY), Adriano Espaillat (D-NY),Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) and Yvette Clarke (D-NY).
During a private meeting between the NYC mayoral nominee and largely progressive House Democrats on Wednesday, Gottheimer did not raise concerns with Mamdani that he has vocalized elsewhere
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) holds a news conference in the Capitol on Wednesday, December 4, 2019.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), in a private meeting with House Democrats in Washington on Wednesday, avoided confronting Zohran Mamdani, the far-left Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, over his controversial defense of calls to “globalize the intifada” and fierce opposition to Israel.
Gottheimer, a moderate Jewish Democrat who is among the most outspoken supporters of Israel in the House, has not been shy about publicly calling out members of his own party when disagreements over Israel and antisemitism have arisen in recent years.
But during the breakfast meeting this week, Gottheimer did not bring up his objections to the 33-year-old democratic socialist, according to a House aide familiar with the matter, even as his views on Israel have raised alarms among Jewish voters and faced pushback from Democratic leaders who have so far withheld endorsements in the New York City mayoral race.
In a statement, Gottheimer reiterated his concerns about Mamdani’s progressive policy proposals and his acceptance of rhetoric that Jewish leaders have condemned as antisemitic. But the New Jersey congressman suggested he was willing to hear from the mayoral nominee about his stunning primary upset that has rattled the political establishment.
“I don’t think higher taxes, anti-job creating socialism, and an acceptance of antisemitic rhetoric is the right direction for America,” Gottheimer told Jewish Insider, echoing comments he shared in an interview with CNBC on Thursday morning and elsewhere in recent weeks. “That said, I am always open to learning how I can reach more people with my commonsense, problem-solving approach.”
He declined to comment further on the meeting to JI on Thursday. “I don’t have anything to say beyond what I put out,” the congressman said.
Later on Thursday, Gottheimer announced he was introducing a bipartisan resolution condemning the phrase “globalize the intifada,” which Mamdani has refused to condemn. The motto chanted frequently at anti-Israel demonstrations is “hate speech, plain and simple,” the congressman wrote in a statement that did not mention Mamdani, arguing such words “incite violence, fuel hate and put Jewish families at risk.”
Still, Gottheimer voiced no such disapproval in the Wednesday breakfast hosted by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) — which included several progressive House Democrats and was promoted as a “communication and organizing” session as the party rethinks its messaging strategy ahead of next year’s midterms.
Gottheimer’s reticence to speak out directly during the in-person meeting stands in contrast with his past denunciations of Mamdani, whose defense of the “intifada” phrase — seen by critics as a violent provocation to target Jews — he has called “insane and unacceptable” amid rising antisemitic activity.
The divisive slogan “is a well-known antisemitic chant that calls for the eradication of Israel and violence against Jews,” Gottheimer said in a social media post a week before the primary last month.
“Zohran Mamdani’s pathetic, hateful lies are a blatant slap in the face of the Jewish community,” he added. “He must apologize immediately. I also suggest that he visit the Holocaust Museum in the coming days and learn why these words are so dangerous.”
Even as no discussion of Israel or antisemitism was raised at the Wednesday gathering, top Democrats have continued to signal their hesitation regarding Mamdani’s approach to such issues, particularly his stance on the “intifada” slogan that he has defended repeatedly as an expression of Palestinian rights.
For his part, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), who did not attend the breakfast but is expected to meet with Mamdani in New York City on Friday, has said that the nominee’s comments about the phrase will be a part of their discussion — suggesting that his support is likely contingent on a change in tone.
Mamdani, who has faced questions about the phrase in other meetings this week, has privately indicated he plans to take a more calibrated stance with regard to the matter, a key point of tension as he now works to expand his coalition in a crowded race that includes Mayor Eric Adams and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, both running as independents.
The Democratic mayoral nominee said in a private meeting with business leaders earlier this week that he would “discourage” use of the phrase but still did not go so far as to condemn it himself, according to reports of the closed-door discussion on Tuesday.
Additional reporting contributed by JI senior congressional correspondent Marc Rod
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Anadolu via Getty Images
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in Rome, Italy on April 19, 2025, as the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States begins in the Italian capital, following the first round held in Oman.
Good Tuesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we look at the state of the New York City mayoral race two months before the Democratic primary, and talk to former Obama administration officials about the Trump administration’s pursuit of a nuclear deal with Iran. We report on the firing of the Columbia Journalism Review’s executive editor in part over his concerns over the blurring of lines between activism and journalism, and cover the Anti-Defamation League’s new audit of antisemitic incidents. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Rep. Haley Stevens, Pierre Poilievre and Eden Golan.
What We’re Watching
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are slated to meet this morning with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington.
- The Vatican announced that the funeral for Pope Francis will be held on Saturday. President Donald Trump said that he and First Lady Melania Trump will attend, marking the president’s first overseas trip of his second term.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene the security cabinet this evening to discuss U.S.-Iran talks and Iran’s nuclear program.
- Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is in the U.S. this week for a multicity trip that includes events and meetings in Miami, Washington and New York.
- The National Press Club postponed a press conference featuring leaders of the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, which had been slated to take place this morning.
What You Should Know
In two months, New York City Democratic voters will head to the polls to vote for the candidate who will likely be the city’s next mayor. The primary, featuring former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and a cast of lesser-known local Democrats, will be one of the first tests for the party over its direction in the new Trump era, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
The race pits a pragmatic, established figure in Cuomo, who has high name recognition but plenty of baggage stemming from allegations of sexual misconduct that led him to resign from the state’s governorship. One of his emerging opponents is a charismatic far-left candidate, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who, as The Free Press puts it, “wants to turn the Big Apple into a Havana on the Hudson.” Cuomo has been a pro-Israel stalwart, while Mamdani represents the Democratic Socialists of America wing of the party that is virulently anti-Israel.
There are many other candidates in the race, but few who are presenting the ideologically moderate profile that Cuomo brings to the table. Most are trying to capture the activist energy of the AOC wing of the party, even if their specific policy positions on local issues vary. This, despite the fact that the New York City electorate moved decidedly to the right in the 2024 elections, with working-class voters in particular rejecting the leftward drift of the party.
Polls have shown Cuomo with a significant advantage, but with elevated unfavorable ratings. A recent Siena poll conducted for the AARP found Cuomo leading Mamdani 34-16% on the first ballot, and by a substantial 64-36% margin at the end of the ranked-choice voting process. The poll found him dominating voters over 50 with 42% of the vote (with the next-closest challenger, Scott Stringer, only polling at 9% with older voters), but actually trailing Mamdani with younger voters between the ages of 18-49.
A separate statewide Siena poll, conducted in March, found Cuomo with just a plus-12 favorability (51-39% fav/unfav) among Democratic voters in the Empire State. Like many traditional Democratic figures, even as a front-runner, he’s struggling to win support among the younger voters whose anti-establishment views are disrupting the party.
The primary election will come as Democrats are trying to figure out the party’s future direction amid a humiliating defeat last November. The results showed that progressivism was a turnoff to swing voters, especially among nonwhite working-class voters that once made up the base of the party in cities like New York. Despite the Trump administration’s disruptiveness in its first months, there hasn’t been the same level of rallying against the White House, compared to the surge of activism after President Donald Trump’s first election.
Indeed, the moderates have the electoral momentum at their back. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, running on a Bloomberg-style technocratic message of competence over ideology, unseated a progressive incumbent last November. Two pragmatic pro-Israel Democrats ousted two of the most radical members of Congress, former Reps. Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, in primaries. Last week’s mayoral election in Oakland, Calif. — one of the most progressive cities in the country — nearly featured an upset from a moderate insurgent against former Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA).
At the same time, the energy in the party has remained on the left’s side. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have been rallying crowds to their side since the election, in one of the few displays of grassroots enthusiasm since November. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), a political pragmatist at heart, drew the ire of many in his party for not initiating a government shutdown in protest of the president’s policies. Newly elected DNC Vice Chair David Hogg, a 25-year-old left-wing activist, is getting attention for backing primaries to incumbent Democrats in safe seats.
June’s New York City primary will be the biggest test of whether the loud left-wing activism actually reflects the sentiment of a majority of Democratic voters. It didn’t in the last mayoral race, where Eric Adams ran as the moderate, pro-law-and-order Democrat and prevailed over candidates who were more progressive.
If the left can’t make it in a Democratic primary in Gotham, it will have trouble making it anywhere else — especially when the biggest battlegrounds for the party will be for general election voters in much redder constituencies.
tehran tango
Obamaworld cheers Trump’s diplomacy with Iran

As nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue this week, foreign policy hawks who opposed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are worried about the prospective nuclear deal, which former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley dubbed “Obama 2.0” on Saturday. They aren’t wrong to spot the similarities between what President Donald Trump’s team is reportedly negotiating now and what former President Barack Obama achieved a decade ago. Several left-leaning national security experts who served in the Obama administration and were staunch advocates for the JCPOA are now cautiously cheering on the emerging potential outline of Trump’s deal as his team shuttles between Rome and Oman for negotiations with the Iranian, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
Catching up: “It’s hard not to take a jab at Donald Trump for walking away from the nuclear deal in the first place, because I think if we get to a deal it’ll probably be something pretty similar,” said Ilan Goldenberg, who served as an Iran advisor at the Pentagon in Obama’s first term and then worked on Israeli-Palestinian issues under former Secretary of State John Kerry. “I have a lot of other things that I can disagree with him on, but if he wants to do the right thing here, I’ll support that.”











































































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