Daily Kickoff
Good Tuesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we preview the top primaries to watch today in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington, look at how Iran and U.S. allies in the region are separately preparing for a potential strike against Israel and report on Nevada Senate candidate Sam Brown’s effort to outflank Sen. Jacky Rosen on Israel. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Penny Pritzker, Alan Garber and Jeb Bush.
What We’re Watching
- Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, will be announcing her running mate selection at a rally in Philadelphia this evening. Marc Rod will be covering the rally for JI.
What You Should Know
Voters in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state are heading to the polls for party primaries today.
The marquee matchup is in Missouri, where Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) faces the prospect of becoming the second Squad-aligned lawmaker to lose her primary. She’s facing St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who has held a small lead over Bush in polling.
Bush’s virulently anti-Israel record — she refused to call Hamas a terrorist group in a recent interview with the New York Times — led pro-Israel and Jewish groups to organize for her defeat. The AIPAC-aligned super PAC United Democracy Project has spent $8.6 million in ads boosting Bell and criticizing Bush’s record.
In today’s JI, we also take a look at the heated Republican primary for Missouri attorney general between incumbent Andrew Bailey and his challenger Will Scharf. (Read more on the race from Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod below.)
In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are expected to win their parties’ nominations, and face off against each other in a pivotal Senate battleground. We’ll be keeping an eye on how much of the vote actor Hill Harper receives; he’s been running to Slotkin’s left in the Democratic primary on a platform critical of Israel.
The matchups will also be set in two battleground Michigan House districts. Slotkin’s swing 7th District seat will feature a battle between two former state senators: Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett.
And in the race for retiring Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-MI) 8th District seat, Democrats are likely to nominate state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, while former TV news anchor Paul Junge is favored in the Republican primary. Kildee beat Junge by 10 points in the 2022 midterms, but the district only narrowly voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
In Washington state’s 6th District, Democratic state Sen. Emily Randall appears to have the late momentum in the all-party primary against Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz, her Democratic rival. In June, Randall fired her campaign manager for pro-Hamas social media activity, and underscored her support for Israel in written responses to JI. That decision led some of her left-wing backers to withdraw support for her campaign.
Randall’s campaign has been boosted by more than $2 million in outside spending, the majority of which has come from Protect Progress, a crypto-focused super PAC which has generally boosted more moderate candidates. The Equality PAC, the campaign arm of the Equality Caucus, which supports LGBTQ candidates, has also spent more than $500,000 backing Randall.
In Washington’s 3rd District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) is expected to face off against Republican Joe Kent, in a rematch of the 2022 campaign. Kent lost the 2022 general election in a GOP-friendly district because of his hard-right, isolationist views, but is expected to run well ahead of a more moderate Republican, attorney Leslie Lewallen, on the primary ballot.
Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA), one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the impeachment of former President Donald Trump, is also facing a tough primary challenge from 2022 Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley and former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler. Trump endorsed both Smiley and Sessler in an effort to exact retribution against Newhouse.
In Washington State, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.
Walz’s Waltz
Walz began his political career as a moderate, but as governor he’s moved to the left
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a former moderate House lawmaker who has governed as a liberal as his state’s chief executive, has emerged as the favored veepstakes candidate among progressives, Jewish Insider’s Emily Jacobs reports. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said after meeting with Walz over the weekend that he was “very impressed” by the potential vice-presidential contender. “I think you have an excellent governor who understands the needs of working families,” Sanders told Minnesota Public Radio. “I hope very much that the vice president elects a running mate who will speak up and take on powerful corporate interests,” Sanders continued. “I think Tim Walz is somebody who could do that.”
Background: The Minnesota governor has evolved politically since first entering political life. He was elected to the House during the Democratic wave of 2006, scoring an upset in a GOP-leaning rural district that had looked unlikely to flip. Walz held onto the southern Minnesota seat for six terms, assembling a largely moderate voting record in the process that included support for gun rights, Israel and the Keystone XL pipeline. That voting record earned him the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, something the advocacy group revoked during Walz’s successful 2018 gubernatorial campaign, when he ran on a platform of tightening gun restrictions. Walz also received AIPAC’s endorsement during his House tenure, speaking at the pro-Israel group’s 2010 conference. “Israel is our truest and closest ally in the region, with a commitment to values of personal freedoms and liberties, surrounded by a pretty tough neighborhood,” he said in his address that year. More recently, as governor, when more than 18% of Minnesota’s Democratic primary voters chose to write in “uncommitted” rather than supporting President Joe Biden as a means of protesting his support of Israel, Walz said that the party needed to focus on winning back those anti-Israel voters rather than dismissing their criticisms, though he also argued that centrist voters were also in play.
tehran talk
Iran in a flurry of diplomatic activity ahead of Israel attack
Calls between Israeli foreign ministers and the longtime Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó have typically been pleasant affairs in recent years, due to the close ties between Jerusalem and Budapest, but Szijjártó had a different kind of message to relay to Israel Katz on Monday night — a message from Tehran. Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri told his Hungarian counterpart that Iran is determined to attack Israel, and Szijjártó informed Katz, who then called on the EU to “exact a heavy price from Iran for any act of aggression.” The phone chain from Tehran to Jerusalem came as part of a broader effort by the Islamic republic to shore up diplomatic support, or at the very least justify the attack that experts believe is likely to come, experts told Jewish Insider‘s Lahav Harkov.
Seeing respect: Russian Security Council President Sergei Shoigu was in Tehran on Monday, pledging “full cooperation with Iran on regional issues,” while Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Tehran earlier this week. Iran asked for a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, to be held in Jeddah on Wednesday. Ben Sabti, a researcher at the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies, said that Iran’s message is one of “justice and blood revenge,” and that the sense of respect and dignity it gets from such diplomatic engagement is important to Tehran. Monday “was a very unusual day,” Sabti said. “I don’t remember a day with so many people coming and going. Iran was like France all of a sudden; everyone was talking to them.”
allies in arms
Arab states will likely cooperate with the U.S., Israel, if Iran attacks
Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, was in Tel Aviv on Monday holding a flurry of meetings with military officials amid increasing speculation that Iran will attack Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh last week in its capital, sparking a broader regional conflagration. Kurilla’s visit to Israel comes as U.S. officials work through diplomatic channels to attempt to restore calm to the region or, if Iran does attack, ensure that its Middle East allies are ready — and willing — to come to Israel’s aid, Jewish Insider’s Ruth Marks Eglash reports.
Common interest: “It is a very delicate dance,” Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JI, referring to the moderate Sunni states that make up CENTCOM. “Arab countries do not want to be seen as defending Israel; on the other hand they have an interest, which, of course, they will not say, in weakening Iran. In the end, they understand that Iran is the main regional threat, not Israel, but they have their publics, they have their agendas and they cannot go hand in hand with Israel openly.”
missouri moment
‘Vicious’ GOP primary race set to pick Missouri’s next attorney general
A heated primary in Missouri on Tuesday is likely to decide whether Will Scharf, an attorney who represented former President Donald Trump, will become the state’s next attorney general, or whether sitting AG Andrew Bailey, who was appointed to the seat last year, will remain in his post, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports.
State of the race: The race has been marked by millions in outside spending, and a focus on culture war issues and loyalty to Trump, with few clear policy differences between the two candidates. Trump, hedging his bets, endorsed both candidates. Scharf told JI on Monday that recent internal polling shows him closing in on Bailey and that he’s “feeling good” about where things stand. Scharf has also faced attack ads that appear to invoke antisemitic tropes. While he didn’t comment on his personal views, he said that many others have told him they find the ad campaign antisemitic. The Republican winner will be heavily favored in the November election.
silver state seat
In the Nevada Senate race, Sam Brown tries to outflank Sen. Jacky Rosen on Israel
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has been among the most vocal Democrats in support of Israel in the Senate, including breaking publicly both before and since Oct. 7 with President Joe Biden and Senate Democratic leadership, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports. But Sam Brown, the Republican Senate candidate in Nevada, is nonetheless attempting to paint her as insufficiently supportive of Israel, even invoking Rosen’s Jewish faith in a recent attack.
What he said: “Here’s one of her greatest offenses: as a Jewish woman in the Senate, she has not stood up and pushed back against [President Joe] Biden or even [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer [D-NY] as these Democrat leaders have done nothing but insult Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and have hindered Israel’s ability to prosecute this necessary war against Hamas,” Brown said in a radio interview with Mark Levin, a leading conservative host, on July 10. A Rosen spokesperson shot back that she “takes a back seat to no one when it comes to her ironclad support for Israel’s right to defend itself and an unbreakable U.S.-Israel relationship, even when it means standing up to her own party.”
Worthy Reads
New Approach to Peace: In The Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead suggests that the Biden administration put forth a “compelling vision for peace that makes sense to majorities of Israelis and Palestinians” in its remaining months. “From Harry S. Truman to Joe Biden, 14 American presidents have believed that America’s principles and interests are best served by a compromise that secures Israel’s future while recognizing Palestinian rights. Yet Israelis and Palestinians are fighting more bitterly than ever. Progress toward peace requires a change in approach. For Israelis to believe in peace, they must see among Palestinians a new consensus for peace, or at least the beginnings of one. For that kind of consensus to emerge, Palestinians would need to see realistic proposals for a two-state solution that respects their dignity and responds to their needs.” [WSJ]
Hong Kong Hustle: In the Washington Post, Samuel Bickett and Shannon Van Sant explain how Russia, Iran and North Korea use entities and individuals in China to evade sanctions. “Hong Kong’s business-friendly policies, which make it easy to conceal corporate ownership and quickly create and dissolve companies, allow illicit actors to make a mockery of U.S. and Western sanctions. At the same time, slow and inconsistent enforcement by Western governments has allowed those actors to continue their operations with relative impunity. The United States can and should address this situation without delay. For decades, Hong Kong served as the world’s gateway to mainland China, its economic influence rivaling that of New York and London. Unsurprisingly, it also attracted elements of organized crime and money-laundering syndicates. But with its government steadily becoming an economic pariah in the West due to its crackdown on rights and freedoms, local officials have sought to bring in investment from autocratic regimes and oligarchs to compensate.” [WashPost]
Word on the Street
The U.N. Relief and Works Agency fired nine staffers who were found to have taken part in the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks…
Penny Pritzker, the Biden administration official tasked with overseeing Ukraine’s economic recovery, will step down from her role as her term ends…
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) rejected accusations that pushback to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s potential selection for the Democratic ticket stems from antisemitism, saying, “I think it’s probably more about policy. But the decision will be made by our candidate for POTUS… I think that it would be better if they weighed in more privately”…
The Democratic primary in Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District between Yassamin Ansari and Raquel Terán — where Ansari leads by 42 votes — will head to a recount…
In The Wall Street Journal, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) lays out a three-part proposal for cracking down on Iran: financially punishing countries that violate sanctions, taking a harder line against Iran’s nuclear program and holding Tehran accountable for its proxy Hezbollah’s actions…
Bloomberg News apologized for breaking an embargo on its story about the deal that freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and others from Russia, and disciplined several staffers tied to the incident; Jennifer Jacobs, the lead reporter on the story, was fired from the outlet…
Harvard University announced that interim President Alan Garber will serve as the school’s head through the end of the 2026-2027 academic year…
Columbia University administrators are mulling a proposal that would greenlight the hiring of campus “peace officers” who have arresting power…
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was named the chairman of United Against Nuclear Iran, succeeding former Sen. Joe Lieberman, who died in March…
Delta Airlines suspended flights to and from Israel through the end of August…
Jordan asked that airlines with planes flying into Amman equip the aircrafts with extra reserve fuel, believed to be a precautionary measure in the event Iran strikes Israel…
U.S. military personnel were injured in what military officials believe was a rocket attack on a base in Iraq, which the Pentagon has blamed on Iran, calling it a “dangerous escalation”…
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a drone attack in northern Israel that injured two soldiers…
The Associated Press looks at how residents of Israel and Lebanon are navigating daily life as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah threatens to spiral into a larger regional war…
Iran arrested dozens of individuals, including high-ranking security officials, in response to last week’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week…
An Israeli servicewoman was lightly wounded in a stabbing attack at the Tunnel Checkpoint in the West Bank, south of Jerusalem. Security forces shot and killed the suspect…
Two Israelis were injured by shrapnel from Hezbollah drones in northern Israel…
Composer and music critic Walter Arlen, whose experiences surviving the Holocaust were reflected in his music, died at 103…
Pic of the Day
Amb. Robert Wood, alternate representative of the U.S. for special political affairs in the U.N., spoke at Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan’s send-off last night in New York City co-hosted by Israel’s U.N. mission and UJA-Federation of New York. Erdan is concluding his four-year term in Turtle Bay.
Birthdays
Professor of public diplomacy at The Fletcher School of Tufts University, she was formerly under secretary of state for public diplomacy, Tara D. Sonenshine turns 65…
Los Angeles-based partner at the Jaffe Family Law Group, Daniel J. Jaffe… E-sports executive and casino owner, he is a three-time winner of the World Series of Poker bracelet, Lyle Berman turns 83… Founder and spiritual leader of The Elijah Minyan in San Diego, Wayne Dosick… Professor emerita and former dean at Bar-Ilan University, Malka Elisheva Schaps turns 76… Austrian businessman, Martin Schlaff turns 71… Former state treasurer of Virginia and then Virginia secretary of finance, Jody Moses Wagner turns 69… Professor of psychiatry at The George Washington University Medical Center, Alan J. Lipman, Ph.D. turns 64… Israeli diplomat, he served as Israel’s consul general in NYC, Alon Pinkas turns 63… NASA astronaut who spent 198 days on the International Space Station, he brought bagels from his family’s bagel store in Montreal into space on his first mission into orbit, Gregory Chamitoff turns 62… Chair of White & Case’s white collar practice group, Joel M. Cohen… VP of public affairs and strategic communications at the American Council on Education, Jonathan Riskind… CEO of Illuminate, Melanie Roth Gorelick… Former vice chair of the board of directors at the Jewish Community Federation of San Francisco, Susie Sorkin… Television and radio sports anchor on ESPN and ABC, he was one-half of the “Mike & Mike” team but now hosts his own ESPN morning program, Mike Greenberg turns 57… Chief economist at The Burning Glass Institute, Gad Lebanon, Ph.D…. Former boxing commentator and co-host of ESPN’s “This Just In,” Yiddish-speaking Max Kellerman turns 51… Co-founder and former CEO of Uber, Travis Kalanick turns 48… Former CEO at a workforce cooperative called Climb Hire, Nitzan Pelman… Actress, director and screenwriter, Soleil Moon Frye turns 48… Screenwriter and television producer, Joshua Ian Schwartz turns 48… PR consultant, Jeffrey Lerner… Chief creative and culture officer at an eponymous firm, Rachel Gogel… Member of the New York State Assembly, Simcha Eichenstein turns 41… Winner of two gold medals in swimming at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, Garrett Weber-Gale turns 39… Chief of staff to the Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital, Corey A. Jacobson… Communications and leadership consultant, Jessica I. Goldberg… Reporter at the San Antonio Express-News, Elizabeth Teitz… School safety activist, Hunter Pollack turns 27…
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