A majority of Israelis believe that ending the war with Iran under the current conditions would undermine the country’s security, according to a new poll from the Israel Democracy Institute.

The survey, conducted between April 26-30, over two weeks into the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, found that 64% of Jewish Israelis said ending the war in its current state is “only slightly or not at all aligned” with Israel’s security interests. Nearly half of Arab Israelis (48.5%) said the same.

Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and a fragile ceasefire, most Israelis expect a return to further escalation. Overall, 62% of respondents said they believed a return to widescale conflict was likely, including roughly two-thirds of Jewish respondents (64%) and 52% of Arab respondents. Since the survey was conducted, the ceasefire has grown more precarious, with both sides alleging violations.

In the first week after Israel and the U.S. launched joint strikes on Iran’s top officials, 80% of Israelis — including 93% of Jewish Israelis — said they supported the war against Iran.

The latest survey also points to shifting perceptions of U.S. influence over Israeli decisionmaking. A majority of Jewish Israelis now believe the Trump administration exerts greater influence over Israel’s defense policy than the Israeli government itself, with that share rising from 45% in October 2025 to 56.5% in the newest survey. Over the same period, the percentage of Jewish Israelis who see their own government as the primary decisionmaker in its military actions dropped from 24% to 15%.

Among Arab Israelis, views moved in the opposite direction: The share who believe the U.S. holds greater influence fell from 39.5% to 25.5%.

Meanwhile, the survey revealed pessimistic attitudes as they relate to U.S.-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including the ongoing ceasefire. Nearly 80% of Jewish Israelis believe there is a fairly low to very low likelihood of reaching a “stable diplomatic defense arrangement with the Lebanese government, that will include the disarming of Hezbollah.” Among Arab Israelis, 45% believe the likelihood of a deal between Beirut and Jerusalem is fairly high to very high.  

The poll also pointed to deepening concern among Israelis from across the political spectrum over the recent decline in positive attitudes toward Israel in the U.S., with a majority of respondents — 72% — calling the decline “somewhat or very worrying for Israel.” The survey reported no difference in this issue among Jews and Arabs. 

The poll surveyed a representative sample of Israeli adults, including 601 Jewish respondents and 150 Arab respondents.