In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, the AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project made a $2.3 million bet against former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ). It was clear early in the evening that the bet wasn’t paying off — but now the race could end up in what local Jewish leaders are calling a worst-case scenario.

After some outlets initially called the special primary election race for Malinowski, far-left progressive activist Analilia Mejia surged, and took a narrow lead as of the end of the evening, with most saying the race is now too close to call. 

Malinowski maintained a largely pro-Israel record while in office but expressed openness during his latest congressional bid to backing policies conditioning or restricting aid. A former State Department official, he was also a leading and influential voice on foreign policy issues among colleagues.

Mejia’s views on Middle East politics are well to the left of Malinowski’s — she indicated support during a candidate forum for an offensive weapons ban, accused Israel of genocide less than a month after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and, as early as Oct. 10, before the Israeli invasion of Gaza began, said, “Every fiber of my being is horrified beyond words at what is furthering in Gaza.” At the same time, she has expressed support for Israel’s “right to both exist and defend itself.”

Mejia was endorsed by a laundry list of vocal Israel critics, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

Even without a final call, the results are already emboldening other Israel critics on the left, who are declaring that the results show that AIPAC has lost its sway, including candidates running against moderate, pro-Israel candidates in two key Illinois primaries.

Though some were concerned about Malinowski’s growing criticism of Israel since leaving office, other Jewish leaders had been puzzled by UDP’s decision to attack a lawmaker they saw as an ally during his previous congressional term — particularly when a more strident Israel opponent such as Mejia was in the race.

Now, some believe that UDP’s attacks on Malinowski, which attacked the former congressman’s vote in 2019 for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and his stock trading while in office,  may have pushed voters toward Mejia, rather than toward a more moderate candidate, leaving pro-Israel advocates in an even worse position than if it had not intervened.

“Some of the worst fears of the Jewish community in New Jersey have been realized,” one Jewish leader said, referring to Mejia’s surge. “This was a possible byproduct of them stepping into the race. I don’t know how much of this is to blame on AIPAC specifically, but I think there needs to be a serious after-action report if the intent to push out Malinowski had this unintended consequence of propping up a very, very progressive candidate. … If she were to win, this would be far worse than Malinowski winning.”

The leader added that Jewish and moderate voters were ultimately split among former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, who was rumored to have AIPAC’s tacit backing and was endorsed by Democratic Majority for Israel, and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill — a longtime New Jersey political hand and the anticipated frontrunner, who ultimately failed to carry his home county.

While attacking Malinowski, UDP did not air positive messaging about any of the candidates to push voters toward its preferred choice.

“Jewish organizations need to rethink their strategy, or I fear that they are slowly pushing themselves into irrelevance,” the leader continued, pointing to the New York City mayoral race as a similar result when Jewish and moderate voters failed to coalesce to stop a far-left candidate. “People are winning elections without their support — they’re basically beating them.”

Another said AIPAC and UDP had “played it wrong in every step” — raising money for Way, whom the source said always had little chance of winning, and then spending heavily to go after Malinowski despite the Jewish community’s largely positive relationship while he was in office, potentially pushing Malinowski further left.

“If AIPAC’s definition of pro-Israel now excludes even someone like me, who passionately supports Israel but won’t commit to a blank check for anything [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] might want, there won’t be enough pro-Israel people left in America to sustain the relationship,” Malinowski said when UDP first began running ads against him.

Mejia gained attention relatively late in the shortened race, and was not initially viewed as a major contender. Additionally, turnout in the race — expected to be low for a Thursday special election primary with poor road conditions from a recent winter storm — ended up surpassing the 2024 primary election.

Should UDP be interested in trying to take another swing at the Democratic nominee, it may have two opportunities to do so: the upcoming special general election, where the far-left Mejia might be uniquely vulnerable to a GOP challenge, or the primary for the November midterm election. Beating Mejia in the latter primary would likely require consolidation among moderate Democrats.

“If I was an AIPAC official, I’d be wondering, ‘How am I going to go to the same donors that I got money from to run this whole campaign against Malinowski and now I’m going to have to do the same thing to take out the person that I accidentally got elected?’” one Jewish leader said, presuming a Mejia win.

The result could also raise questions about AIPAC and UDP’s strategy in other upcoming races. In Illinois’ 9th Congressional District, a Jewish activist in the community raised concerns to JI weeks ago that pro-Israel attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss could ultimately end up peeling off voters to far-left influencer Kat Abugazaleh, who is avowedly anti-Israel.

But thus far, the strategy in that race appears to be different. An outside group that many in the community believe to be backed by pro-Israel donors recently began running positive ads boosting the pro-Israel favorite, state Sen. Laura Fine, rather than attacking her challengers.