• It is Election Day. The country’s first polls will close at 7 p.m. ET in a handful of states, including Georgia, one of seven battleground states. Half an hour later, at 7:30 p.m. ET, polls will close in battleground North Carolina, followed at 8 p.m. ET by Pennsylvania. Polls in more than a dozen states, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, will close at 9 p.m. ET. In Nevada, the final battleground state, polls close at 10 p.m. ET.
  
• Senate races to watch: In Pennsylvania, the race to watch is Republican Dave McCormick challenging Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). We’re also watching the match-ups between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican Kari Lake in Arizona, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) in Michigan and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Tim Sheehy in Montana.
  
• House side, we’re watching the race in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, where Maggie Goodlander, who is married to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, is leading in the polls. In New Jersey, Sue Altman is challenging Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ). Further south, we’re keeping an eye on the close race between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson to succeed Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) in Virginia’s 7th District.
  
• The outcomes of a handful of races in New York could determine control of the House: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) and Alison Esposito, Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Josh Riley, and Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) vs. John Avlon.
  
• Other races to follow today: Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Tony Vargas in Nebraska’s 2nd District, the open-seat race to replace Slotkin in Michigan between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, and Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) and Janelle Stelson in central Pennsylvania.
  
• And in North Carolina, we’re watching the state’s gubernatorial race as Democrat Josh Stein, the Tarheel State’s attorney general, leads Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has been mired in controversy for a series of offensive social media posts.

Americans and Israelis alike have been anxiously watching the calendar in anticipation of today, but for two different reasons. 

Iran had threatened to retaliate against Israel for strikes last month that destroyed Iranian military facilities and aerial-defense systems — itself a retaliation for the Oct. 1 attack on Israel in which Iran fired 181 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state — before the U.S. election. But that threat — which some observers, such as Nadal Eyal, suggested would amount to election interference — failed to materialize.

Following a warning from the U.S. that it would not restrain Israel from responding to a new Iranian attack, Tehran appears to have backed off — for now. Iran is still threatening a “strong and complex” attack on Israel, a message it has delivered through Arab intermediaries. But, like many around the world, it appears to be operating with caution ahead of Election Day.

Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “waiting for the election results like everyone else before deciding on his response.”

Khamenei “is under strong internal pressure to complete his nuclear weapon — whether a deliverable nuclear warhead which may still take about 18 months or a crude nuclear device which he could do in less than six months,” Dubowitz added. “If he strikes Israel, Jerusalem now has the predicate it needs to do severe damage to his nuclear, economic and leadership assets. A lame duck president may be unable to stop Israel at this point and the Ayatollah is naked against Israeli strikes with his air defenses neutralized. The smarter play may be to rope-a-dope Trump or Harris into another fatally flawed nuclear deal, get massive sanctions relief and continue taking patient pathways to nuclear weapons over time.”

Nevertheless, The Wall Street Journal’s Summer Said and Benoit Falcon wrote, it “remains to be seen whether the Iranian threats are real or just tough talk.”

Tehran’s threats come as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized the deployment of U.S. B-52 bombers to the region, which will arrive in the coming months. Iran’s Foreign Ministry slammed the move, blasting the U.S.’ “destabilizing presence.”

The American Enterprise Institute’s Danielle Pletka tells us that Tehran’s decision to hold off on an Israeli attack — at least until after the U.S. presidential election — comes down to one thing: the Iranians “don’t want to help Trump. Simple.” She suggested that the Iranian decision comes at the advice of Iran’s “friends in D.C.”

The question remains not if but when Iran will choose to respond in the back-and-forth it has engaged in with Israel since early 2024. Under a future Trump administration, Tehran may exercise more caution, cognizant that the former president does not act with the same restraints as his predecessors. (See, for example, the U.S.’ targeted killing in 2021 of IRGC head Qassem Soleimani.) But under an incoming Harris administration, Iran might feel a little more bullish in its approach to Israel, knowing that a Democratic White House would pressure Israel to de-escalate.

That being said, the Biden administration has reportedly warned Iran that if it strikes Israel as it has threatened to, the U.S. will not act to restrain Jerusalem in its response.

As the world watches the election results come in later today, for observers in Israel and Iran, the outcome of the Trump/Harris match-up will hold another layer of significance, with the Islamic Republic likely to predicate its response based on tonight’s election returns.

Bent But Not Broken: The Financial Times’ Mehul Srivastava, Andrew England and Neri Zilber report on a weakened Hamas’ continued survival in Gaza, despite significant Israeli efforts to downgrade the group’s influence in the enclave. “What remains now is a severely weakened but still resilient rump of that state. After ejecting its Palestinian rival Fatah from Gaza in a bloody 2007 coup, many of the jobs in the ministries involved in providing social services went to people with political — not military — ties to Hamas, allowing the group to become deeply enmeshed in governance. Today, despite the fact that their offices have been bombed and their staff scattered, those that survive run a depleted, ineffective but still discernible form of government while the shattered military arm transforms into a guerrilla movement. And they wait. In interviews, Gazans such as Yusuf, Israeli military officials and analysts described what is left of Hamas as a significantly potent player in the ruins of Gaza, poised to bounce back as soon as Israel withdraws.” [FT]

New Path for Palestinians: In The Atlantic, Palestinian activist Samer Sinijlawi suggests how Palestinians can move toward statehood and self-determination. “Palestinians need to put in place a strategy that prioritizes the security of Israelis — not for the Israelis’ sake, but for our own national interest. We need to make sure that the Palestinian Authority properly criminalizes violence committed by Palestinians — just as Israel must end settler violence in the West Bank and respect that the lives of Palestinians are as sacred as the lives of Israelis. Both sides in this conflict need to gain control over their violent tendencies. And then our message to the Israelis will be: more for more. If we make you feel safer, if we build institutions that clamp down on violence effectively, that build a successful economy for Palestinians, that create stability and transparency, we expect from you more dignity, freedom, and trust.” [TheAtlantic]

Leadership Vacuum: In Tablet, Walter Russell Mead warns that the biggest threat facing the American people today is a lack of effective leadership at all levels of national life. “Average confidence in institutions ranging from higher education to organized religion rests at historic lows, with fewer than 30% of respondents telling Gallup pollsters that they have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in major American institutions. Only small business, the military, and the police inspire majorities of the public with a high degree of confidence; less than a fifth of Americans express ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in newspapers, big business, television news, and Congress … While social media is problematic, and not every citizen of the United States is a model of enlightened cosmopolitanism, America’s core problem today is not that the nation is unworthy of the elites who struggle to lead it. That superficial and dismissive response is itself a symptom of elite failure and an obstacle to the deep reform that the American leadership classes badly need.” [Tablet]

Speaking at a rally in Pittsburgh, former President Donald Trump referenced the remaining 101 hostages in Gaza, suggesting that “most” of them “are no longer living”… 

Politico reports that a staffer working on Trump’s campaign was fired for espousing, in online forums as well as in a podcast he hosts with Richard Spencer, white nationalist views…

Political commentator Garrett Ventry, who is joining NBC’s election night coverage, is a registered foreign agent of Qatar…

The New York Times’ tech guild went on strike on Monday over stalled contract negotiations, affecting the paper’s digital coverage of the election results; publisher A.G. Sulzberger slammed the workers’ decision to “try to block this public service at such a consequential moment for our country”…

Washington and Riyadh are reportedly discussing a security agreement that would not include Israel, falling short of a potential three-country “mega-deal” that would have normalized relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia in exchange for a Saudi-U.S. defense treaty… 

Larry Fink, whose BlackRock holds $11.5 trillion in assets, is working to push the global asset manager into the private markets arena, which is more lucrative and would likely raise the company’s market value…

The New York Times reviews Letters, a compilation of hundreds of pieces of correspondence penned by writer Oliver Sacks…

Ivanka Trump celebrated her birthday last week, posting yesterday on social media “some truths” she’s learned; among the lessons she’s learned: “Avoid Lashon Hara / Gossip. Choose words that heal, not harm”… 

A U.S. soldier who suffered non-combat injuries while working on the humanitarian pier off the coast of Gaza over the summer died last week…

Two former government officials who resigned from their jobs over the Biden administration’s support for Israel are launching a new PAC that will work to, among other things, end arms transfers to Israel and push for Palestinian statehood…

Russia is reportedly behind an operation to send incendiary devices on planes bound for the U.S., following the discovery of two such devices shipped via cargo planes in England and Germany over the summer…

In a call between Secretary of State Tony Blinken and his Egyptian counterpart, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, Blinken “noted that Hamas has once again refused to release even a limited number of hostages to secure a ceasefire and relief for the people of Gaza,” according to a State Department readout of the conversation…

The State Department leveled additional criticism of Israel’s efforts to distribute aid in Gaza; Matthew Miller, the State Department’s spokesman, told reporters that Israel would receive a “fail” grade for its efforts, noting that stipulations put forward by Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last month have not yet been met…

The Wall Street Journal reports on the impact of the war in Gaza on the economy in the West Bank…

An Iranian woman who stripped to her underwear in defiance of strict Iranian modesty laws was detained at the Islamic Azad University in Tehran…

Iran’s ambassador to Russia said that Moscow intends to launch two Iranian satellites into orbit today using a Soyuz launcher…

Argentinian Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein was sworn in by President Javier Milei using a Torah; Milei then spoke about this week’s Torah portion, Lekh Lekha…

Gershom Gorenberg is joiningThe Atlantic as a contributing writer…

Jonathan Harounoff joined Israel’s mission at the United Nations as international spokesperson and senior communications advisor…

Josh Kramer, the New York director of the American Jewish Committee, and his wife, Elana Gelman, welcomed a baby boy…

Moran Stela Yanai, who was abducted from the Nova music festival during the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack and held hostage in Gaza for 54 days, spoke at an event on Sunday organized by the Jewish National Fund of South Africa (JNFSA) in Sandton, near Johannesburg.

Television and film critic, Jeffrey Lyons turns 80… 

Singer, poet and actor, best known as part of the duo Simon & Garfunkel, Art Garfunkel turns 83… Co-founder and chairman of Rexford Industrial Realty, Richard Ziman turns 82… French public intellectual, media personality and author, Bernard-Henri Lévy turns 76… Economist and former director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University where he remains a university professor, Jeffrey Sachs turns 70… Israeli ceramic artist and sculptor, Daniela Yaniv-Richter turns 68… Psychologist and wife of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Sara Netanyahu turns 66… Director at The Gottesman Fund, Diane Bennett Eidman… Music producer and entertainment attorney, Kevon Glickman… Former prime minister of Israel, now leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid turns 61… Former regional director of AJC New York, now CEO at Healthcare Foundation of NJ, Michael Schmidt… Senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, Benjamin Wittes turns 55… Host, anchor and correspondent for CBS News and CBS Sports, Dana Jacobson turns 53… General counsel of The Jewish Theological Seminary, Keath Blatt… Jerusalem-born pianist, she has performed with major orchestras worldwide, Orli Shaham turns 49… CEO and organizer of Los Angeles-based Aesthetics and Edits, Tara Khoshbin… Legal correspondent at Business Insider, Jacob Shamsian… Operations director at Dave McCormick for U.S. Senate, Talia Katz…