The bitter Republican primary in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, which features Abe Hamadeh, Blake Masters and Arizona state House Speaker Ben Toma, alongside a handful of other candidates, is set to come to a close on Tuesday, bringing an end to what’s become a high-profile mudslinging contest. 

But a last-minute Trump endorsement could shake up the race.

The campaign has been marked by an especially bitter brawl between Hamadeh — who ran for Arizona’s attorney general in 2022 and lost by 280 votes, a loss he has continued to challenge — and Masters, the 2022 GOP Senate candidate who lost to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ).

Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement has become a key point of contention in the race.Trump initially endorsed Hamadeh, while Masters continued to tout his 2022 endorsement from Trump in campaign materials and advertising, to the frustration of some in Trump’s orbit. GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake has also endorsed Hamadeh.

But in a surprise Saturday night announcement, Trump announced a dual endorsement of both Hamadeh and Masters.

“Donald Trump wants to be a winner! So he will back both the leading men,” Barret Marson, an Arizona-based Republican political strategist, told Jewish Insider. “The problem for [Hamadeh] and [Masters], this might allow Ben Toma to move right up the middle and capture the nomination.”

Trump’s vice presidential nominee, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), had earlier endorsed Masters.

“Without a doubt, this has been the dirtiest, nastiest congressional race in all the country,” Marson said. “Masters and Hamadeh were nominally aligned two years ago… and now they, once seemingly friends, are dire enemies.”

Masters and allies have focused attacks on Hamadeh’s Muslim faith, plastering pictures of him in religious garb in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on television advertisements and billboards, and implying that he’s a “terrorist [sympathizer].”

The attacks have also highlighted a Hamadeh comment that “America was founded on Islamic principles” — a comment that referenced the Constitution’s origins in Abrahamic religions. Masters has claimed Hamadeh, a veteran, has no “skin in the game” because he isn’t married and does not have children.

Hamadeh’s campaign, meanwhile, has sought to characterize Masters — a former top executive for venture capitalist and GOP donor Peter Thiel with roots in the populist “New Right” — as a “snake” and a secret leftist. 

Masters came under scrutiny in his 2022 Senate race by JI and other publications for his ties to neo-Nazis and the extremist far right, old writings that quoted Nazi leaders and antisemitic conspiracy theorists and his past hard-line libertarian views.

Masters, having loaned $3.5 million to his own campaign, has a significant cash advantage, with $4 million raised in comparison to Hamadeh’s $1.4 million, which has allowed Masters to blanket the airwaves, according to Marson.

Toma, the Statehouse speaker, pulled in $848,000, trailed by former Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) at $643,000. 

Masters described himself as pro-Israel, but his campaign in 2022 came under scrutiny for his overall isolationist worldview and past comments critical of Israel, issues that concerned Arizona’s pro-Israel community. Hamadeh, the child of Syrian immigrants, has cast himself as a strong supporter of Israel and the Jewish community.

Polling in the race has been highly variable: a mid-July independent poll showed Masters up three points over Hamadeh, 23-20%; a July 8-9 Masters internal poll showed Masters up 27-26%; and a June 10 Hamadeh poll showed Hamedeh up 30-19%.

“I love to gamble, but I would not put a ton of money on [Masters],” Marson said. “But if I’m going to put money down, I would put it on [Masters].”

Marson said that Masters’ significant personal loan to his campaign is “unheard of in a House race in Arizona,” suggesting that he’s concerned about the race.

“But Abe Hamadeh hasn’t been spending nearly as much money — [he] doesn’t have that kind of money,” Marson continued. “He has a Trump endorsement though, and that’s pretty powerful, as we all know.”

Marson also didn’t rule out the possibility of Toma eking out a victory, having stayed mostly out of the back-and-forth between the two more-prominent candidates.

“When [Masters] and [Hamadeh] are attacking each other so much, it provides an opportunity for [Toma] to be the candidate that can just kind of squeeze through, and he’s got a great record,” Marson said, pointing to Toma’s work on tax cuts and school vouchers.

A Masters ally told JI that they’re feeling good about where the race stands heading into Election Day, pointing to recent polling that the ally said shows Masters gaining ground and on top in recent weeks, though they acknowledged that the polling has remained close and often inside the margin of error.

An individual close to the Hamadeh campaign said that recent polling by the campaign and outside groups has shown Hamadeh up — most recently by eight or nine percentage points in an internal poll.

The pro-Hamadeh source acknowledged that Masters has had a significant financial advantage, boosted by outside spending on his behalf, but claimed that the Masters camp’s negative advertising is souring voters on him.

Hamadeh’s brother has also backed independent spending in Hamadeh’s favor.

The Masters ally said that there’s also a “non-trivial chance” — perhaps 10-15% — that Toma will be able to vault over Masters and Hamadeh to victory.