One of the biggest slurs coming from anti-Israel influencers and other crankish extremists is that outside pro-Israel advocacy groups, such as AIPAC, somehow play an inordinate role in the reason so many lawmakers support a close U.S.-Israel alliance.  

Their misguided belief is that the donations from pro-Israel donors drive lawmakers’ behavior. The reality is that such financial support has reflected the strong public support Israel has long enjoyed — within both parties. 

But as that public support drops within the Democratic Party (and to a lesser extent, among independents), all the resources in the world won’t be able to prevent progressive-minded elected officials from putting their finger in the wind and reneging on their past backing for the Jewish state.

We’re already seeing the consequences of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to expand the war in Gaza by taking control of Gaza City — a decision that has limited support in Israel, and has been drawing criticism even from some of Israel’s stalwart Democratic party supporters at home.

But what should be doubly concerning to the Jewish state and its supporters is that several of the Democrats championed by AIPAC’s super PAC in the last two congressional elections — Reps. Valerie Foushee (D-NC), Maxine Dexter (D-OR), and Robert Garcia (D-CA) — have lately become more hostile to Israel, with the former two calling for a cutoff in military aid.

And as we documented last Friday, Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL), whose initial candidacy was boosted by commitments he made to Jewish leaders amid skepticism about his record on Israel, is now reneging on many of those promises, joining a handful of progressives in calling for a Palestinian state.

Some important context: All these Democrats represent some of the most progressive turf in the country, with deep-blue constituencies in Portland, Ore.; Durham, N.C.; and Long Beach, Calif. AIPAC’s engagement in these primaries, electing more mainstream Democratic candidates, was a key marker of the group’s success, given the sizable anti-Israel constituency in all these districts. 

But ultimately, the overall progressive turn against Israel proved more consequential than these lawmakers’ relationships with AIPAC or the amount of financial support they received in their primaries. It’s hard enough for mainstream Democrats to run against the left-wing tide that’s been gaining ground in their party. In these activist-minded districts, it’s become nearly impossible.

It’s been the rise of social media platforms amplifying extreme views that have played an outsized role in shaping public opinion — far more than the money from outside advocacy groups. The change in how young voters get information is driving the shift in public opinion on a wide range of issues, and is fueling the left-wing, anti-establishment constituency within the Democratic party.

We’re seeing the consequence of that change within the Democratic party and its voters’ views towards Israel in real time. Even the best and well-resourced outside advocacy can only do so much when the rules of the game are skewed against the political mainstream.