French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed on Sunday over the French leader’s call for an arms embargo on Israel on the eve of the first anniversary of Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel.

Yet the halting and slowing down of weapons deliveries from the U.K., Germany, France and others have had little impact on Israel’s ability to prosecute its multifront war, experts told Jewish Insider this week, while warning the hold on arms could put pressure on the U.S., the country that matters most.

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Israel Ziv said that “Israel currently has enough supplies to continue fighting…A large part of what we need is manufactured in Israel.” 

In a radio interview on Sunday, Macron said that “the priority is that we return to a political solution, that we stop delivering weapons to fight in Gaza.”

The French president also warned that Lebanon “cannot become a new Gaza.” 

Soon after, in a video statement released in English, Netanyahu called Macron’s remarks and similar ones from other Western leaders “a disgrace.” 

“Shame on them. Is Iran imposing an arms embargo on Hezbollah, on the Houthis, on Hamas and its other proxies? Of course not,” the prime minister said. “This axis of terror stands together, but countries who supposedly oppose this terror axis call for an arms embargo on Israel.”

In the leaders’ Sunday phone conversation, each doubled down on his position.

“Iran supports the entire terror axis, as friends of Israel are expected to stand behind it and not place limitations that will only strengthen the Iranian axis of evil,” the Israeli readout states.

The Élysée Palace readout said that Macron called the French commitment to Israel’s security “unwavering,” noting that France shot down Iranian missiles in March. However, Macron said “the time for a ceasefire has now come,” and that “the arms deliveries, the prolongation of the war in Gaza and its extension to Lebanon cannot produce the security expected by the Israelis and everyone in the region.” 

The following day, Macron posted that “the pain remains” a year after the Hamas attack, and that he sends “fraternal thoughts” to the victims. He was also scheduled to meet with relatives of French hostages held by Hamas, Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi, in Paris.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot visited Israel as planned on Monday, as part of a regional tour that also includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. He was expected to meet with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Monday afternoon.

Macron’s call for an arms embargo came after France voted last month in favor of a U.N. resolution calling for sanctions and an arms embargo against Israel.

The U.K. also announced last month that it is pausing 30 out of 350 arms export licenses to Israel, including components of fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with Foreign Secretary David Lammy saying there is “a clear risk that [certain military exports] might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of International Humanitarian Law.” 

In addition, Germany paused all exports of “weapons of war” to Israel from January-June, though Berlin did not announce a change of policy and only made the numbers public in an official answer to a parliamentary question. Germany approved the sale of over 3 million Euros in military parts and technology in October 2023, but only 35,000 Euros of equipment in July 2024. The German Economy Ministry insisted to Deutsche Welle that “there is no ban on the export of arms to Israel, nor will there be,” but said that all exports are examined on a case-by-case basis for compliance with international law.

Other countries that suspended, slowed down or banned arms exports to Israel include Canada, Spain and Belgium, as well as the Netherlands, whose government opposed a court order to do so.

Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and author of The Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower, noted that, during the Six-Day War in 1967, then-French President Charles de Gaulle set an arms embargo on Israel, which, at the time, was heavily reliant on Paris for fighter jets, missiles and other weapons. That embargo “sparked the Israeli military-industrial revolution,” Katz said, “and led to the formation of the strategic alliance with America, two great benefits for Israel.”

The implications of Macron’s current policy is much less dramatic. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 69% of arms imports to Israel came from the U.S., 30% from Germany, 0.9% from Italy and 0.1% from the rest of the world, including France. The practical impact of these embargoes on the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon has been minimal, several experts told JI.

Emmanuel Navon, executive director of the European pro-Israel organization ELNET and an international relations lecturer at Tel Aviv University, said that the only country in Europe that is a significant arms supplier for Israel is Germany.

“France is only significant when it comes to air defense, as we saw [in the Iranian attack] in April, but when it comes to military supplies, it’s almost insignificant,” he said. 

Navon noted that whether or not Germany has slowed down weapons exports to Israel, “at least they deny it. Macron called for it.”

Katz said that Israel “doesn’t buy much from France, maybe $20 million-$30 million in the past decade, and [doesn’t] get that much from the U.K. Germany sells us submarines, which are more significant, but they all pale in comparison to the U.S.”

Katz said that “America is a different world. Pretty much all of our aircraft, our weapons, are American-made…You can make an argument that, as long as America is with you, you’re fine.”

While the U.S. slowed down shipments of 2,000-pound bombs and other weapons, they eventually released them, sending the 500th planeload of equipment to Israel in August.

Katz warned of a possible diplomatic effect, in that there may be a “momentum” of stopping weapons exports to Israel, that “runs the risk of making it to America, and if that happens, then there is an existential danger.” 

“If all of Europe is turning against Israel, and America stands alone, it becomes harder for America, just practically as the sole supporter. No country wants to be the only one supporting the other country,” he added.

Ziv also expressed concern about “longer-term influences [of the] uncomfortable diplomatic situation,” including in Washington.

There may be consequences that we still cannot predict, Ziv said, adding that “we may need to increase domestic production or maybe things will be resolved, but [the slowdowns] are not harming Israel’s ability to fight the war at the moment … Other than the U.S., all other purchases are minor.”

Navon said that “Israel has some tools to offset France’s negative influence at the U.N. and EU,” because “France is not as influential as it thinks or wishes it was … the strongest country in the EU is Germany, which is really a strong ally of Israel. [Chancellor Olaf] Scholz doesn’t care what Macron says.” 

In addition, Eastern European EU member states such as the Czech Republic, Baltic States and Poland support Israel’s war effort, giving Jerusalem “a lot of room to maneuver in the EU to isolate the French. Israel has enough allies in the EU to offset the French influence,” Navon argued.

As for Netanyahu and Macron’s dispute, Navon said: “You don’t win wars with cease-fires … Do they not want Israel to win? They want a cease-fire because of civilian victims. Well, yes, it’s a war. There are far fewer casualties than those of the French in Iraq and Syria.”