Concern is rising in Jerusalem following Ottawa’s announcement of a ban on military exports from Canada to Israel, despite its minimal direct impact on Israel’s ability to defend itself, stoking fears that the decision sets a precedent that more significant trading partners could follow.

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told The Toronto Star on Tuesday that Ottawa will ban future arms exports to Israel, even though a motion to that effect passed by the Canadian legislature earlier in the week was not binding.

According to the motion, Canada would “cease the further authorization and transfer of arms exports to Israel to ensure compliance with Canada’s arms export regime and increase efforts to stop the illegal trade of arms, including to Hamas.” Though the motion only mentions arms, Joly’s office reportedly said the ban will include all military goods and technology.

The motion proposed by the left-wing New Democratic Party also called for the “establishment of the State of Palestine as part of a negotiated two-state solution.” It originally called to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, but Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals negotiated to soften the text.

The move came days after reports that Canada had stopped exporting military goods to Israel on January 8 in order to examine whether there was a “substantial risk” that the IDF was committing human rights violations. 

The impact of the ban on Israel’s defense is likely “zero to negative,” former Canadian Ambassador to Israel Vivian Bercovici told Jewish Insider. 

“To my knowledge, there’s no there there. Canada doesn’t even have basic equipment for our own army,” she said. “We don’t produce much, if anything, in the way of military arms.”

The items Israel orders from Canada are “things like canvas tents,” that have military and civilian uses, Bercovici said. She noted that many recent media reports mentioned an order of three to six light armored vehicles from Canada that Israel canceled early in the war, if not before. 

Ottawa approved CAD 70 million ($52 million) in military export permits to Israel in the first three months since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, but most of it – CAD 47 million ($35 million) – would not have fallen under the the ban, because it consists of goods modified by Israel and then sent back to the Canadian Forces or other Canadian allies, the Star reported. Also not included in the ban are components for F-35 fighter jets that Canada sells to the U.S., some of which are then used by the IDF.

Canadian publication The Maple reported viewing documents that stated Ottawa authorized CAD 28.5 million ($21.1 million) in military exports to Israel in the two months after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which is more than the CAD 26 million ($19.2 million) annual record high for such exports.

According to Global Affairs Canada, as the Foreign Ministry is known, the country exported over CAD 21 million ($15.5 million) in military goods and technology to Israel in 2022. This puts Israel among the top 10 export destinations for Canada, but is only a small fraction of Israel’s defense expenditures, which reached $23.4 billion in 2022. 

Ottawa’s decision could have a more meaningful impact, however, if other countries see it as a green light to do the same. 

According to Bercovici, “the more important aspect of this diplomatic frisson isn’t Canada actually providing anything meaningful in terms of military materiel, but is much more about the precedent. That becomes a different analysis in terms of what diplomatic precedent this sets and Canada’s influence on the world stage.”

Dan Illouz, a member of Knesset from Likud who was born and grew up in Montreal, similarly told JI that “the real damage, when it comes to Israel’s defense, is not only from Canada itself…it’s that Canada is the first G7 country to actually take this step.”

“The G7 includes the leaders of the free world, the countries we want to align with against the Iranian axis,” Illouz added. “The precedent this could set is problematic. Canada is choosing to be on the wrong side of history, and I hope others do not follow. When you start these things, you never know where they will end.”

Other Western countries have taken steps towards halting military exports to Israel. Spain’s foreign minister announced an embargo on arms sales to Israel, and Belgium said it suspended gunpowder exports to Israel. 

In February, a Dutch court ordered the government to halt the export of F-35 parts to Israel, stating that there is a “clear risk” that they will be used “in serious violations of international humanitarian law.” The government, however, said it would appeal the ruling. 

Though Italy had announced soon after the war began that it would stop arms exports to Israel, citing a law that bans such exports to countries waging war, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said last week that orders placed before the war began were still being fulfilled. 

U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron is reportedly considering such restrictions if Israel enters Rafah.

Illouz noted that Canada is viewed as a country with credibility on human rights issues.

“In the long run, I believe Canada will lose a lot of this credibility if it starts undermining democracies trying to defend themselves against terror just to appease extremist elements of its society and political structure,” he said.

Bercovici, who was appointed ambassador by a Conservative government, argued that Trudeau was already losing that credibility. 

“There are benefits and disadvantages to being Canada and no one paying attention to you. Sometimes we punch above our weight…Under Justin Trudeau we don’t, so nobody pays attention,” she said.

Bercovici argued that Trudeau has used foreign policy to “pander to various highly sectarian domestic interests.” Trudeau “is always ready to jump for any Muslim or Palestinian cause without question and also very quick to criticize and attack Israel. He loves to invoke ‘even among friends there are disagreements’ bromide,’ which is garbage,” she said.

In November, Trudeau said in a press conference that “the world is witnessing this killing of women, of children, of babies” by Israel. Netanyahu responded in a post shortly after that “It is not Israel that is deliberately targeting civilians but Hamas that beheaded, burned and massacred civilians in the worst horrors perpetrated on Jews since the Holocaust. While Israel is doing everything to keep civilians out of harm’s way, Hamas is doing everything to keep them in harm’s way…The forces of civilization must back Israel in defeating Hamas barbarism.

Joly, meanwhile, visited Israel days before the vote on the motion to ban arms sales to Israel. She took that opportunity to announce Canada was committing CAD 1 million ($740,000) to investigating allegations of sexual violence against Palestinians. Joly, who did not acknowledge the sexual violence that took place on Oct. 7 until two months after the attacks, said Canada would grant same amount to survivors of Hamas sexual violence. Joly also did not meet with hostage families during her visit or at any time since the Hamas attack, a Canadian source told JI.

Canada also decided earlier this month to renew its funding for UNRWA, the U.N. agency for Palestinians, which had been suspended due to evidence that a number of its employees were Hamas members, with some having taken part in the Oct. 7 terrorism and in holding Israeli civilians hostage. 

Still, some in Jerusalem portrayed officials’ efforts ahead of the House of Commons vote as effective in softening the motion’s language. A diplomatic source argued that the change in the language from suspending all defense exports to only banning future orders came following Joly’s meetings with President Isaac Herzog and others.  

War cabinet Minister Benny Gantz’s office told JI that his phone call with Trudeau earlier in the week was to press for the House of Commons drop language calling for unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, because “such motions are a prize for terrorism and Hamas.” The spokesman said Trudeau “agreed with [Gantz] and promised to do what he can to prevent or at least soften it, and that is what happened.”

The Canadian media, however, portrayed the negotiations on the motion’s language between Joly and NDP MP Heather MacPherson, who proposed it, as ensuring it was in line with the government’s policy favoring a negotiated two-state solution, so that the Liberals could support it without splitting the vote and to avoid liability over existing export agreements. Only three Liberal MPs voted against the motion.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Canada’s decision to stop shipping arms to Israel “undermines Israel’s right to self-defense against the Hamas murderers who committed terrible crimes against humanity and against the innocent civilians of Israel, including elderly, women and children.

“History will harshly judge the current step of the Canadian government,” Katz added. “The State of Israel will continue fighting to destroy Hamas and bring all of its hostages home.” 

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said that “all those countries turning away from Israel now will look back at this moment as a mark of shame. After all those statements in support of the Jewish people when we’re victims, you abandon us now, on the last leg before our victory against a genocidal terrorist force? Shameful.”