Israel’s strikes against military targets in Iran early Saturday morning aimed to send a clear deterrent message: that the IAF can strike in the heart of the Islamic Republic should it choose to attack Israel again, while limiting the mission to parameters put forward by the Biden administration.

“The air force attacked throughout Iran,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at an Oct. 7 memorial ceremony on Sunday. “We caused great damage to Iran’s defensive capabilities and its ability to manufacture missiles that are aimed at us … The attack on Iran was precise and powerful, and attained all of its goals.”

After the Biden administration said it opposed strikes on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities, more than 100 Israeli Air Force planes flew over 1,000 miles to Iran. They struck 20 Iranian military sites – and some Syrian and Iraqi ones on the way – including aerial defense capabilities and missile-production sites, some of which were used in Iran’s attack on Israel earlier this month. 

Among the sites that Israel reportedly struck is Parchin, home to a former nuclear facility, which includes facilities for manufacturing components of rocket engines used in long-range missiles. It was also home to a secret drone production site, according to Eyal Pinko, a retired Israeli Navy commander and senior researcher at Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Another target, Taleghan 2, was a nuclear weapons development test location, according to documents in the Iran nuclear archive obtained by the Mossad in 2018. The Institute for Science and International Security posited that “Israel’s alleged destruction may have destroyed valuable equipment useful in further nuclear weapons development … The building provided intrinsic value … for activities involving high explosives or projectile impact studies.” 

The strike left Iran “exposed” in terms of its aerial defense, as well as exposing intelligence about its drone production, Pinko said during a virtual briefing organized by the Jerusalem Press Club. He estimated that it will take at least a year for Iran to recover the missile production capabilities destroyed on Saturday, and that it will be a “huge challenge” to get more S-300 defense systems from Russia, which needs them in its war against Ukraine.

While the attack was effective, it was limited in part because of American pressure to keep the conflict from escalating, Pinko said.

“Israel doesn’t want an escalation with Iran, so I think it’s a good match between Israel’s will … and [an effort] not to upset [President Joe] Biden and [Vice President Kamala] Harris too much,” he said.

Danny Citrinowicz, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Jewish Insider that the choice of targets was meant to “fulfill the American request not to strike nuclear or oil [sites] because the administration doesn’t want a regional war on the eve of an election.”

At the same time, Israel wanted to “draw a line for the Iranian leaders, that it won’t accept missile strikes on Israel. It’s a response and a deterrence … because it damaged Iran’s ability to respond to Israel,” he said.

The message of Israel’s strikes on Iran, according to Citrinowicz, is that “we want to end this, but if you respond, we will strike more targets, and your ability to attack us is significantly lessened.”

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote that “the strikes sent a clear message that Israel is prepared to deliver a disproportionate amount of damage to high-value targets. This potency contrasts with the ineffectiveness of Iran’s large-scale missile and drone assaults on April 13-14 and October 1 that caused minimal damage to the Jewish state.”

The strikes demonstrated that the IAF “can cripple Iran’s defense of its airspace, critical infrastructure and facilities,” Dubowitz stated. 

Citrinowicz said that Iran underestimated the impact of Israel killing the entire senior leadership of Hezbollah, which served as Tehran’s “shield.”

“Israel didn’t attack Iran before, not because of Iranian capabilities, but because of Hezbollah,” he said. “The situation is such that Israel feels very free. Operationally, it has the ability to attack wherever it wants in Iran.” 

The strikes also show that Israeli fighter jets are capable of reaching Iran on their own, which increases the chance of an attack on nuclear sites, Citrinowicz said, while acknowledging that challenges remain in terms of coordination with the U.S., which does not want Israel to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, and the weapons Israel has at its disposal. 

Dubowitz said that the strikes can be viewed as “preparation for future actions should these become necessary, and sends Tehran the message that it is vulnerable to future strikes.”

While Biden said he “hope[s] this is the end” of the exchange between Israel and Iran, Tehran said it has a “right to self-defense” and threatened to use “all material and spiritual capabilities of the Iranian nation to defend its vital security interests” soon after the IAF strike.

Pinko said Israel is unlikely to respond further to Iran before the U.S. presidential election next week.

“Even though there are media reports that Iran will not accept this attack, I assess that Iran will not retaliate … in order to not escalate,” he added. 

“The Iranians are in a great dilemma,” as to how to respond, Citrinowicz said. “Now, when the Iranian leaders gather to decide what to do … they are a lot more exposed in their air defense systems’ missile production.”

The fact that the Islamic Republic did not respond immediately reflects its attempt to downplay the damage, but at the same time, this is the first such attack on Iranian soil since the Iran-Iraq war, he said. Iranian media reported that two soldiers were killed in the strike.

“The Iranian government was proud of its ability to protect Iran … now, soldiers were killed,” Citrinowicz added.

Dubowitz expressed concern that Iran may use the coming months, after the U.S. election but before a new administration is sworn in, to reach nuclear breakout, and said the U.S. could serve as an even stronger deterrent to Iran than Israel if Washington gets involved.

“The United States should recognize that if Israel can strike the clerical regime with such impact, U.S. air forces could inflict far greater damage — if Washington only had the will to hold Tehran accountable for its actions,” he wrote. “Israel has sent an important deterrent message, but the United States could send one that is far more persuasive.”

Citrinowicz pointed out that the war between Israel and Iran was always referred to as “the shadow war,” but now, “the genie is out of the bottle.”

“I don’t know how this will end, but this was a historic event,” Citrinowicz said. “This is a reality-changing event. We ourselves still might not understand how significant it is.”