Daily Kickoff
Good Thursday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we interview Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate David McCormick about his trip to Israel this week, and talk to Lihi Lapid about the global silence in response to Hamas’ widespread sexual violence. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Natan Sharansky, Mike Pompeo and Alanis Morissette.
The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries are less than a month away, with the state of play in the presidential nominating fights remarkably stable for months, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
Former President Donald Trump is still the dominant front-runner and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is looking like his most credible rival, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in need of a surprisingly strong Iowa performance to salvage his struggling campaign.
Haley, by consolidating the most Trump-skeptical elements of the Republican Party, has an outside but credible chance to survive the first round of early primaries and emerge as the last Trump challenger standing. Her reported $24 million fourth-quarter fundraising haul is a sign that top Republican donors have rallied to her side, even if she’s not making many inroads with MAGA-oriented voters.
Haley’s path to success is difficult but straightforward: Finish second in Iowa, and knock DeSantis out of the race; win or come close to defeating Trump in New Hampshire, building a wave of momentum; and parlaying that into a home-state victory in South Carolina in preparation for Super Tuesday on March 5.
But the reality is that Haley (or any Trump rival) needs a whole lot of help outside their control in order to beat the odds and remain a contender on Super Tuesday. Haley badly needs former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is peeling off anti-Trump voters in the Granite State with an unequivocal anti-MAGA message, to drop out before New Hampshire.
And Trump’s legal troubles would have to become a bigger factor for any challenger to dent his strong standing with Republican voters now. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters would be dissuaded by the charges against the former president at this point, but it’s possible that a critical mass of GOP voters would be concerned that a conviction could make it impossible to serve effectively.
Here’s a quick JI cheat sheet: The results to watch in Iowa are whether Trump can win an outright majority of the vote (he’s polling at exactly 50.0% in the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregator), whether DeSantis can get within 10 points of Trump and whether Haley can top DeSantis and get about one-quarter of the caucus-wide vote. (Haley and her allied super PAC are outspending the competition in the final weeks before the caucuses, showing she’s hoping to close strong.)
In New Hampshire, the biggest question is whether Gov. Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Haley fuels her momentum, or whether her potential path to victory is closed off by Christie. She’ll likely need at least 40% of the vote to have a good chance at victory. This is Trump’s weakest primary state, in part because of the large number of moderates and independents able to vote in the open primary.
And don’t sleep on the unsanctioned Democratic primary in New Hampshire, where President Joe Biden is competing as a write-in candidate against Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and self-help author Marianne Williamson. It would be embarrassing if a sitting president failed to win 60% of his party’s vote, even under the unusual circumstances of the primary.
solidarity mission
Top GOP Senate recruit Dave McCormick underscores importance of American strength in Middle East

In a show of solidarity with Israel, GOP Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick spent the first week of the new year in the Jewish state, meeting with the country’s military leaders, government officials and families of hostages — while spending a day touring the remains of Kfar Aza, one of the kibbutzim hit hardest during the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack. “You can read about these things, but when you see it yourself, it’s just much more meaningful. It has reinforced my belief of the need to have solidarity with Israel and the people of Israel, but also to make clear the difference between right versus wrong,” McCormick said in an interview from Tel Aviv with Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar.
Takeaways: McCormick added that he watched the 47-minute video compiled by the Israeli Defense Forces documenting the Hamas atrocities on Oct. 7: “The evilness of what occurred here and the need to have a united front against that evil — that’s the lesson. Lesson two: The brutality and heinous nature of Hamas is even more extreme than I could have imagined… It’s about fighting back against an ideology and a terrorist threat that goes far beyond just Israel.”
Military strategy: The Pennsylvania Republican said that he endorsed Israel’s policy of seeking the eradication of Hamas from the Gaza Strip, saying he fully backs the country’s military strategy. “You cannot live that close to an enemy threat that is genocidal like Hamas. The eradication of Hamas is not negotiable. The war has to be conducted in a way the Israelis best determine,” McCormick said.