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Doha dialogue

Netanyahu mobilizes political support as hostage deal gets ‘very, very close’

Hamas still has not given a list of living hostages; American, Israeli officials hopeful agreement will be reached before Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration

MAYA ALLERUZZO/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a press conference in Jerusalem on December 9, 2024.

Intensive talks aimed at finalizing a cease-fire and hostage-release deal continued into Monday in Doha, Qatar, following the arrival of an Israeli negotiating team and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu works to lay the political groundwork among his coalition members for support for a deal.

Qatari mediators gave Israeli and Hamas negotiators a final draft of the agreement on Monday morning, Reuters reported.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on Monday that “there is progress in the negotiations to release the hostages.”

“Israel very much wants to release the hostages and is working hard to reach a deal,” Sa’ar said in a press conference with his Danish counterpart. “The Americans are making great efforts to reach a deal and we thank them for that. We will soon know if the other side also wants to reach a deal. I hope we will see progress in the near future.”

The full Israeli negotiating team led by Mossad chief David Barnea flew to Doha on Sunday for the first time since August in an effort to finalize the deal. Joining Barnea were Shin Bet head Ronen Bar; Maj.-Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, who is heading the IDF’s intelligence efforts to locate the hostages; and Netanyahu’s diplomatic advisor, Ophir Falk. Brett McGurk, White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa , incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and CIA representatives were also in Doha.

Netanyahu and President Joe Biden spoke on the phone on Sunday, and the Prime Minister’s Office referred publicly to “progress in the negotiations to release our hostages” for the first time in months. According to the White House readout of the Netanyahu-Biden call, the talks are still broadly based on Biden’s May 27 speech, which Hamas accepted and then rejected.

Vice President-elect J.D. Vance said that he’s “hopeful there’s going to be a deal that’s struck towards the very end of Biden’s administration, maybe the last day or two.” If a deal is not reached, Vance said, elaborating on Trump’s comments that there will be “hell to pay” if all the hostages are not released, the incoming administration would “enabl[e] the Israelis to knock out the final couple of battalions of Hamas and their leadership,” and institute “very aggressive sanctions and financial penalties on those who are supporting terrorist organizations in the Middle East.” 

Israeli consul-general in New York, Ofir Akunis, also said that he thought “a deal could be signed by January 20.” 

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan characterized a deal as “very, very close.” However, he added that “being close means you’re still far because until you actually get over the finish line, you’re not there. Can we get it done before the 20th? It is possible … Hamas, in particular, remains intransigent.”

Sullivan told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the Biden administration is “determined to use every day we have in office to get this done … and we are not, by any stretch of imagination, setting this aside.”

An Israeli official was circumspect in his remarks to Jewish Insider, saying that while there has been significant progress in some areas of the negotiations, advances have been much slower in other areas in light of Hamas’s refusal to list which of the 98 remaining hostages are alive.

Still, Netanyahu began to lay the political groundwork on Sunday for an agreement that would have Hamas free over 30 living hostages in exchange for Israel withdrawing from large parts of Gaza and releasing Palestinian terrorists from prison, conditions that are opposed by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Netanyahu held separate meetings with the two ministers on Sunday to update them on the details of the deal and gauge whether they would quit the coalition. Ben-Gvir said after the meeting that his opposition to the agreement remains unchanged. Smotrich did not comment publicly, but a minister from his party, Orit Stroock, said in an interview with Haredi radio station Kol Barama that the deal is “a prize for murderous terror” and warned Netanyahu not to test the party’s red lines.

Both ministers opposed a hostage deal ahead of the one reached last November, but Smotrich was convinced at the last minute to vote in favor.

According to ynet, citing Saudi news site A-Sharq, 34 hostages would be released in the first stage, in exchange for a six-week cease-fire and 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 150-200 serving life sentences and about 560 who are elderly or ill. Israel wants the prisoners with life sentences to be deported, and is engaging in negotiations with Qatar and Turkey on the matter.

The list of living hostages to be released is still under negotiation, as are the unpopulated areas to which the IDF would withdraw, returning displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, among other matters.

The second stage of the deal, which would begin a week after the first, would involve the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for a yet-to-be-determined number of Palestinian prisoners. That would be followed by a second six-week cease-fire, during which negotiations would take place for a third stage involving the rebuilding of Gaza and its administration by someone other than Hamas.

There is significant opposition among hostage families and beyond to a deal that would only release some of the hostages.

Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is a hostage in Gaza, addressed her remarks in Saturday night’s weekly protest in Tel Aviv to the Israeli negotiating team: “If you bring back a partial deal, his blood and that of all the other hostages is on your hands. Bring a comprehensive deal now.” 

A Jewish People Policy Institute poll found that 59% of Jewish Israelis oppose a partial deal. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Jewish Israelis support releasing terrorists with “blood on their hands” in exchange for the hostages, and most (55%) Israelis, Jewish and Arab, believe that it is fine to agree to Hamas’s demands because Israel can start the war again after the hostages are released. 

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