Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) said on Monday that she would pass on an anticipated run for the Illinois Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) in 2026, leaving what’s likely to be a three-way race among Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) and Robin Kelly (D-IL).

“Our work is not done, and I’ve decided the most powerful way for me to defend our values and hold Donald Trump accountable is to help Democrats win back the House,” Underwood said in a statement, highlighting her leadership roles in the House Democratic Caucus and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Stratton is backed by billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, as well as Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), while Krishnamoorthi has $19 million in the bank for the race and members of the Congressional Black Caucus are backing Kelly.

Pritzker could put significant funding behind Stratton’s run and reportedly worked behind the scenes to block Underwood and other candidates from entering the race. Underwood, on CNN, denied that Pritzker had forced her to stay out of the race.

A Jewish Democratic strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, told Jewish Insider they see the Chicagoland Jewish vote — a sizable community — as largely still up for grabs given that none of the candidates have particularly deep ties to the Jewish community coming into the race. They said Jewish voters will likely take time to evaluate each of the candidates.

“I think there’s a lot of inroads for them to make,” the strategist said. “None of these have that long history with the Jewish community … [and] don’t come from natural Jewish areas.”

Kelly and Krishnamoorthi have mixed voting records on priority legislation for the Jewish community, having both opposed several bills and resolutions to combat antisemitism, counter Iran and sanction the Houthis and the International Criminal Court, among other issues.

On the handful of occasions the two have diverged on votes, Krishnamoorthi has generally come down on the side of Jewish and pro-Israel groups — for instance, he supported the Antisemitism Awareness Act, while Kelly opposed it.

The strategist said Kelly may have a shot at gathering Jewish voters’ support given that she has some existing connections with community leaders, from her time as state party chair in 2021 and 2022.

Krishnamoorthi does not currently represent a sizable Jewish community and has not been prominently involved in Jewish issues, the strategist added. 

While Pritzker, who is Jewish, has strong ties to the Jewish community, he has led most of the Jewish outreach from the governor’s office, leaving less of a role for Stratton. The strategist said that Stratton “has a lot of room to grow, especially with Pritzker backing her,” and predicted she’ll make a play for the Jewish vote. “She has a very compelling story that I think will resonate with the Jewish community also.”

Chicago also has one of the nation’s largest Palestinian communities, potentially creating competing political incentives for candidates if Israel policy becomes a prominent issue in the race.

Frank Calabrese, a Chicago-based political strategist, said he sees Stratton and Krishnamoorthi as the likely frontrunners in the race overall at this early stage, with Stratton having an advantage given her relationship with Pritzker.

He said that Underwood’s decision not to run caught many, even well-connected political figures in the state, off guard. Calabrese said Underwood likely felt she would not be able to match Stratton and Krishnamoorthi in fundraising, even though she could have been an “ideal type of candidate.”

“I believe Robin Kelly is the weakest of the three just because it’s going to come down to fundraising,” Calabrese said, adding that Pritzker and his political operation have made strong inroads with the Black community, leaving Kelly at a disadvantage with a potential base. He noted that Kelly and Pritzker have preexisting tension — Pritzker forced her out as state party chair in 2022.

But Calabrese said that Stratton’s close ties to the state’s Democratic establishment — Pritzker and Duckworth — could end up being a liability with some Democrats and progressives, particularly the wing of the party that supported Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) presidential campaigns. That said, Krishnamoorthi is not strongly aligned with the Sanders wing of the party either, he noted.

Tom Bowen, a Democratic strategist in the Chicago area, argued that the outcome of the race will ultimately be shaped by events over the course of the coming year and that early metrics are often unreliable, especially in multi-candidate races. He predicted that Democratic voters would “take their time” in deciding.

“It’s very obvious the governor’s hand is at work in this, and that he has a preference for the woman he believes should lead the state,” Bowen said. But he argued that might not help Stratton as much in a cycle when some Democrats are looking for big changes. “I’m not sure anybody else’s opinion but their own is going to be the deciding factor here.”

He said that candidates’ backgrounds, endorsements and fundraising are “not insignificant, but voters pay pretty close attention when there’s a moment of crisis, so the one who meets the moment is going to be the one who is successful.”

The Jewish Democratic strategist said they believe the field may not yet be entirely set, noting that businessman Chris Kennedy — brother of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — may also enter the race.

The strategist said that Underwood’s decision not to run makes sense given that she would have been competing against Stratton and Kelly, two other Black women, she is gaining seniority in the House Democratic Caucus and she is young, giving her time to continue to build her national profile.

They said that it’s likely a wide-open race at this point, adding that, while Kelly may currently be the underdog, there’s plenty of runway for her to gain ground if her allies in the CBC put significant backing behind her.

“Most people have no clue who these people are,” the strategist said, “Money helps, but at the end, they have to connect with the voters. And it’s such a diverse state.”