It’s not an overstatement to suggest that the future direction of the Democratic Party could well be decided tonight in New York City, where a far-left, anti-Israel assemblyman from Queens, Zohran Mamdani, has a shot to win the Democratic nomination against presumed favorite, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Most public and internal campaign polls show Cuomo ahead, but a new Emerson College poll released Monday showed Mamdani in the lead for the first time, sending shockwaves through the New York City Jewish community — and beyond.

The notion that a candidate who pointedly declined to condemn “globalize the intifada” rhetoric in the city with the largest Jewish population in the world could be running competitively would have been unthinkable not long ago.

For a party desperately seeking to moderate in the aftermath of brutal defeats in 2024, the prospect of having a socialist mayor for the next four years in the largest city in the country would be an undeniable setback, threatening to reverberate beyond Gotham’s borders.

Mamdani’s rise has particularly fueled anxiety among Jewish leaders — as his hostile views toward Israel have hardly dented his standing in the race. Even if he doesn’t win the nomination, Jewish Democrats uncomfortable with his anti-Israel rhetoric and alleged insensitivity to rising antisemitism fear his surging campaign could end up causing them to rethink their long-standing affiliation with the Democratic Party

One prominent New York-based Democratic strategist told JI he expected some Jews to relocate to Florida or Texas if Mamdani becomes mayor.

But don’t expect a clear answer this evening: The primary result is unlikely to be confirmed for at least a week thanks to the city’s relatively new ranked-choice voting system. And regardless of the outcome, both Mamdani and Cuomo could also run in the general election on separate ballot lines, a possibility neither candidate has ruled out and one that portends a high-stakes race to November. 

In addition to the mayoral contest, we’ll also be keeping an eye on a few down-ballot primaries for City Council, including former Rep. Anthony Weiner’s comeback campaign for an open-seat in Manhattan and a pair of Brooklyn races where anti-Israel incumbents are facing challengers.

With just under three weeks until New York City’s mayoral primary on June 24, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is slowly but surely securing commitments from a range of key leaders in the Orthodox Jewish community, a large and politically influential voting base whose widespread support is seen as crucial to his pathway to the Democratic nomination.

In the coming days, Cuomo is expected to garner endorsements from several prominent Orthodox leaders in Brooklyn and Queens, including major Hasidic sects in Borough Park and Williamsburg that can traditionally turn out thousands of votes, according to people familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity to address private plans.

But as most top Orthodox leaders have not historically taken sides until relatively late in the primary season, some Jewish community activists are voicing anxiety about their continued delay in publicly backing Cuomo — as he increasingly faces competition to his far left from Zohran Mamdani, a Queens state assemblyman whose fierce opposition to Israel has drawn mounting accusations of fueling antisemitism.

“Now that the race has been essentially a two-man race for the past few months, what are they waiting for?” one Jewish leader, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Jewish Insider. “Are they considering Mamdani?”

Mamdani, a longtime supporter of boycott and divestment campaigns against Israel, has stirred growing controversy over his extreme positions in recent months. Perhaps most notably, he has refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, an issue he skirted again during the first mayoral debate last night. “I believe Israel has the right to exist,” he said carefully, “as a state with equal rights.”

Though he has otherwise denounced antisemitism and made some overtures to the Jewish community, mainstream Jewish leaders remain alarmed by Mamdani’s rhetoric and concerned by a poll that showed him uncomfortably close to Cuomo in the final round of ranked-choice voting. 

Some Jewish leaders believe that the Orthodox community, whose support could help tip the scales in a close election, is not recognizing the urgency of the moment as Mamdani continues to surge.

“The Orthodox Jewish community is not afraid enough,” Sam Berger, an Orthodox Queens state assemblyman who endorsed Cuomo in March, said in a statement to JI. “While the public generally takes its time to pay attention, we do not have that luxury this year. After two antisemitic attacks in under two weeks echoing the same rhetoric we have persistently warned against from the No. 2 mayoral candidate, we need to vote like our lives depend on it.”

Last week, Leon Goldenberg, an Orthodox leader in Brooklyn who serves as an executive board member of the Flatbush Jewish Community Coalition, announced his support for Cuomo, preempting an endorsement from his own group that is likely to come in the next week or so. His personal endorsement, he told JI in an interview, was intended to raise awareness about the stakes of the primary.

Cuomo, who has frequently touted his support for Israel and called antisemitism “the most important issue” in the race, has activity courted the Orthodox community, in an effort to repair relationships that had deteriorated over policies he implemented amid the COVID pandemic, which many voters still recall as discriminatory.

“The meetings all went well, and I do believe that before this race is over that most of the Orthodox Jewish groups will support the former governor for his mayoral bid because we’re very concerned about the prospect of Zohran Mamdani becoming the next mayor,” said one Orthodox rabbi in Far Rockaway, Queens, who is part of a group of Jewish leaders endorsing Cuomo, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address the race. “I don’t remember a more important election for the Orthodox community in my lifetime.”

“If it hasn’t woken people up, hopefully it will in the next few weeks,” he told JI.