Daily Kickoff
Good Wednesday morning.
In today’s Daily Kickoff, we break down the results of yesterday’s elections. We look at how President-elect Donald Trump is likely to approach the Middle East in his second term, report on the Israeli government reshuffle following the firing of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and talk to Jewish communal leaders about the impact of Bernie Marcus, who died on Monday.
What We’re Watching
- We’re still waiting on the outcome of dozens of House races, as well as several high-profile Senate battles, where Republicans have an edge in most of the states yet to be called.
What You Should Know
Former President Donald Trump will be returning to the White House as the 47th president after scoring a decisive win over Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump delivered a victory speech at Mar-a-Lago, declaring that the country has given him an “unprecedented mandate.”
“This was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time,” Trump said in his speech. “There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond. And now it’s going to reach a new level of importance because we’re going to help our country heal. We’re going to help our country here. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country and we’ve made history for a reason tonight. And the reason is going to be just that.”
The surprising scope of Trump’s victory — winning or leading in all of the seven battleground states, while making inroads with non-white constituencies that were once solidly Democratic — gives the former president the opportunity to translate his populist instincts into a governing mandate, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
Trump’s winning coalition was striking for its racial and demographic diversity (for a Republican), according to the Fox News voter analysis. Trump won 15% of Black voters (nearly double his 8% showing in 2020) and 40% of Hispanic voters (up from 35% in 2020). He lost Gen Z voters by only six points. He made inroads with both Jewish voters and Arab American voters alike.
All told, Trump posted his typical dominant numbers with his rural, small-town base, while adding working-class non-white constituencies in cities that ate into the Democrats’ typical voting blocs. Even in deep-blue diverse states such as New Jersey, New York and Illinois, the typical large Democratic margins of victory dissipated.
Meanwhile, Harris’ anticipated dominance with suburban voters and women never materialized. Harris performed a bit worse than President Joe Biden in the suburbs, and underperformed Biden with women as well. Trump is on track to win the popular vote — potentially with an outright majority.
While many of the Senate races have not yet been officially called, Trump’s resounding victories led to downballot coattails for the GOP. Officially, the Associated Press called the West Virginia and Ohio races for Republicans, netting them the two seats necessary for the majority. But a number of Republican candidates — from Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania to Mike Rogers in Michigan — are leading and are favored to win their respective races.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), in a surprise, is locked in a close race against Republican Sam Brown, with much of the vote still outstanding. If Republicans sweep all the close races, they could end up with as many as 56 Senate seats — an outcome that was seen as unthinkable heading into Election Day.
The battle for the House offered more of a mixed picture: Democrats scored some key victories, such as defeating Reps. Brandon Williams (R-NY) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY) in New York. But Republicans were optimistic about their chances to pick up two Democratic-held seats in Pennsylvania — riding Trump’s coattails in races against Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).
It will take the next few days, and perhaps longer after votes are belatedly tallied in California, to determine which party will hold the House majority. But given Trump’s popular-vote margin, Republicans are cautiously optimistic they’ll maintain control — albeit narrowly.
All told, Trump’s resounding victory will send shockwavesacross Washington, cementing the MAGA movement as a governing reality while forcing Democrats to reckon with what went wrong and reassess their ideological direction.
mideast matters
How Trump will approach the Middle East in a second term
Throughout his campaign, former President Donald Trump shared few substantive clues indicating how he would handle some of the most intractable issues roiling Israel and the Middle East if he is elected to a second term. With Trump declaring victory after sweeping key battleground states, lingering questions remain about how he would navigate ongoing turmoil in the region, despite his repeated claim that Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks “would never have happened” on his watch. In some cases, Trump has been noticeably silent on key events, while in others he has been consistently vague — perhaps most prominently in his calls for Israel to wrap up its war in Gaza without offering a plan for a cease-fire, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports.
Second time round: Elliott Abrams, a former diplomat in Republican administrations who now serves as a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that “the best guide” to predicting what Trump will do in a second term “is what he did as president the first time.” In an email to JI on Tuesday, Abrams said, “I expect strong support for Israel and tough pressure against Iran. Iran sanctions will be enforced, and Trump may threaten Iran that if an American is killed by an Iran-supplied missile given to the Houthis, or other weapons given to Shia militias in Iraq, he will react directly against Iran.”
Words on war: In his victory speech on Wednesday morning, Trump said, “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars. We had no wars, for four years we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS.”
state by state
breaking down the returns
Maryland largely broke for Democrats, with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks winning the state’s Senate election over former Gov. Larry Hogan. On the House side, Democrats Sarah Elfreth and John Olszewski will head to Washington in January following their wins last night. In Maryland’s 6th Congressional District, April McLain Delaney and Neil Parrott, who had faced criticism for his opposition to antisemitism legislation while he served in the state Legislature, are within a few hundred votes of each other, with 84% of precincts reporting.
In Texas, Republican Craig Goldmanwon his race in Texas’ 12 Congressional District and will become the third Jewish Republican in the House.
New York was a mixed bag for incumbent House members, with Reps. Pat Ryan (D-NY), Nick LaLota (R-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) holding onto their seats, while Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) and Brandon Williams (R-NY) were bested by Democratic challengers Josh Riley and John Mannion, respectively. On Long Island, Democrat Laura Gillen looks likely to knock off freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY).
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) was unseated by Bernie Moreno. Downballot, Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) fended off a challenge from Orlando Sonza, who had touted an endorsement from a prolific Holocaust denier. And in Michigan, Rep. John James (R-MI) appears likely to hold onto his seat in the state’s 10th Congressional District, while Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett won the race to succeed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), to whom he lost in 2022, in the 7th Congressional District.
Pennsylvania is likely to see a number of GOP pick-ups, with Dave McCormick narrowly leading Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in what would be a key Republican win. With 95% of precincts reporting in a trio of purple districts, it’s unclear if Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA) will hold onto their seats, while Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) has seemingly overcome Democrat Janelle Stelson’s early lead.
Among the Senate races in battleground states, only Ohio has been officially called, but Republicans appear poised to make several pick-ups as more races are called. In Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) was facing an uphill battle to keep his seat, Republican businessman Tim Sheehy was declared the winner.
And in North Carolina, Attorney General Josh Stein beat Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson to become the Tarheel State’s next governor. Stein’s win ensures that 6% of the country’s governors (including Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Hawaii’s Josh Green) are Jewish Democrats named Josh.
security shakeup
Netanyahu fires Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday, replacing him with Foreign Minister Israel Katz, amid longstanding public acrimony between Gallant and Netanyahu even as Israel has been engaged in a multifront war against Iran and its terror proxies. In a video statement, Netanyahu said, “Unfortunately, while in the first months of the [war] there was trust [between him and Gallant] and very fertile work, in recent months the trust was eroded between me and the defense minister.” Netanyahu cited “significant gaps” between the ministers’ views on how to run Israel’s concurrent wars, which were “accompanied by statements and actions that went against government and cabinet decisions,” Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.
U.S. ties: As defense minister, Gallant had built close ties with senior U.S. defense officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Gallant had become the Biden administration’s primary channel to the Netanyahu government in recent months, due in large part to frayed ties between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden.
Gallant’s response: Addressing the nation following his dismissal, Gallant said that his removal from office was the result of disagreement on three issues: the exemption of Haredim from army service; the country’s “moral obligation” to bring home the hostages from Gaza; and his call for the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the events surrounding the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks. Thousands of Israelis across the country demonstrated against Netanyahu’s decision to fire Gallant immediately after the news broke last night.
ballot block
Pennsylvania voters in Israel face challenges from pro-Trump activists
When Traci Siegel opened her email on Sunday, she was shocked to learn that her vote in the presidential election might not count. Siegel, who lives in Israel, voted absentee in her home state in Pennsylvania, as she had many times before, in accordance with federal law requiring states to allow Americans who moved abroad to vote for federal office via their last county of residence. Now, however, someone she does not know paid $10 to appeal against her vote, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports.
Wider phenomenon: “The Dauphin County Board of Elections received a challenge to your absentee ballot,” the county’s director of elections, Christopher T. Spackman, wrote. “The challenge argues that a provision of the Pennsylvania Election Code takes precedence over the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act.” Media reports in recent days have said that the challenges come from supporters of former President Donald Trump claiming voter fraud, and last week, a Harrisburg court dismissed a lawsuit by six Republican members of Congress that could have undermined the process of voting from abroad. Mark Zell, vice president of Republicans Overseas Israel said he had been concerned that these efforts would impact Pennsylvania voters from Israel.
baruch dayan emet
Bernie Marcus, Home Depot co-founder and major donor to Jewish causes, dies at 95
Bernard “Bernie” Marcus, the son of Jewish immigrants from Russia who co-founded The Home Depot and became a major donor to a wide variety of causes, died on Monday in Boca Raton, Fla., at 95. His work supported, and in some cases transformed, American Jewish life, the State of Israel, American politics, medicine and his adopted hometown of Atlanta, where he donated $250 million to create the Georgia Aquarium, the largest aquarium in the United States. But according to those who knew him, his legacy will be the impact that he had on many individuals who were touched by his life’s work, eJewishPhilanthropy’s Nira Dayanim reports.
Legacy: “Bernie’s enduring generosity and unwavering philanthropic support to [Atlanta’s Marcus Jewish Community Center] transformed our organization in ways beyond measure, ensuring that our agency remained innovative, vibrant, inclusive, and a safe hub for Jewish life,” Jared Powers, the JCC’s CEO, said in a statement. “His tremendous philanthropy shaped the Marcus JCC’s past and present and has inspired countless individuals and future generations to celebrate their Jewish values and connect with each other.”
Read the full obituary here and sign up for eJewishPhilanthropy’s Your Daily Phil newsletter here.
Worthy Reads
The Firing This Time:The Free Press’ Matti Friedman weighs in on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. “Gallant will be replaced with Yisrael Katz, a Likud apparatchik who is now the foreign minister, not that many have noticed. Katz has little relevant experience for the role, and his appointment amid a multifront war demonstrates the kind of political cynicism and recklessness that has come to characterize Netanyahu after nearly 15 years in power. … Gallant’s firing introduces further uncertainty into a political system already roiled by the war and economic woes, and now bracing for the unpredictable results of the American election. And it will severely test the will of Israelis of the center, left, and moderate right, who have proved willing to pull together to win a war even with a government they don’t trust, but won’t do so indefinitely.” [FreePress]
Playing the Long Game: In the Financial Times, Andrew England and Neri Zilber explore Israel’s long game in its war against Iran and its proxies. “Battlefield gains have buoyed Israel’s confidence, reinforcing its sense of military superiority as the initial war aims of eliminating Hamas and freeing hostages held in Gaza morphed into a multi-front conflict against Iran and its proxies. Netanyahu, considered risk-averse before Hamas’s attack, told the Knesset last week that Israel’s strategy was to ‘dismantle’ Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, which includes Hizbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, all of whom have fired at Israel over the past year. The thinking in Israel is that by severely degrading Hamas and Hizbollah, it has weakened the Islamic republic’s frontline defences against the Jewish state. Amir Avivi, a retired general and founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, said Israel ‘understands that we have a historical opportunity to not only eradicate Hamas, but also dismantle Hizbollah’ and strike Iran. ‘Iran lost its strategic depth . . . and this is the moment to really take them out of the equation,’ said Avivi, who is close to the far-right government.” [FT]
The Beirut Bind: The New York Times’ Michael Crowley delves into the challenge and concerns surrounding the situation in Lebanon amid Israel’s war against Hezbollah. “A key question for Israel concerning a cease-fire agreement based on Resolution 1701 is whether the Lebanese Army can be trusted to enforce it this time. Lebanon has not had a president for about two years, and the country has been mired in political paralysis. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has spoken with several of his Arab counterparts who wield influence in Lebanon about how the country might be able to fill the vacant position with someone able to meet the challenge. Hezbollah has vetoed any candidate other than its preferred choice. Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said that ‘a major piece of the puzzle’ currently missing ‘is a willing and capable partner in Beirut to implement any agreement.’ ‘For that, the U.S. and its partners will need to reboot the Lebanese political system by facilitating the election of a friendly president and the formation of a cabinet that does not legitimize Hezbollah’s arms,’ he said. But analysts say that any serious challenge to Hezbollah — politically in Beirut, or militarily by the Lebanese Army — could lead to civil war.” [NYTimes]
Word on the Street
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the first world leaders to congratulateformer President Donald Trump immediately after Trump delivered his victory speech early this morning. “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Netanyahu said…
Israel President Isaac Herzog also congratulated Trump, lauding him as a “true and dear friend of Israel, and a champion of peace and cooperation in our region”…
Politico reports on how a surge of anti-Israel activism at the University of California, Berkeley has resulted in widespread burnout following months of protests, leading to a largely quiet semester…
The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Riley describes a gloomy outlook for New York Mayor Eric Adams and floats Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) as a serious candidate to replace him…
The district attorney’s office in Brooklyn, N.Y., announced charges against three individuals who vandalized the homes of several members of the board of directors of the Brooklyn Museum “who have Jewish-sounding names”; the trio, according to the district attorney’s office, “did not target two board members who do not have Jewish-sounding names”…
Several storefronts in the heavily Jewish neighborhood of Pico-Robertson in Los Angeles were vandalized early Tuesday morning…
An Israeli teenage jiu-jitsu fighter won a gold medal in the World Jiu-Jitsu Federation’s under-14 division in his weight class after his Emirati opponent, who had initially won the match, was disqualified for making a throat-cutting gesture…
The Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched a drone attack against Israel on Tuesday targeting Haifa…
The White House warned Iraq that Israel could strike within Iraqi territory if Baghdad didn’t act to keep Iran from launching attacks from its territory…
Hezbollah launched rockets at the Golan Heights, including Trump Heights, on Wednesday morning. The terror group also launched rockets from Lebanon at Tel Aviv and other parts of central Israel…
The Iranian rial fell to a record low on Wednesday morning as Trump’s victory in the presidential election began to become clear…
Iran said that a German-Iranian man who was set to be executed died prior to his slated execution — even though Iranian officials released a statement last week announcing he had been executed…
Pic of the Day
Protesters demonstrate near the Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv on Tuesday following the dismissal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Birthdays
Former baseball outfielder in the Orioles and Angels systems, he played for Team Israel in 2012 and is now a manager of business development at Robson Forensic, Robert Eric Widlansky turns 40…
Leading teacher in the Breslov Hasidic movement in Israel, Rabbi Yaakov Meir Shechter turns 94… Belgian theoretical physicist, a Holocaust survivor and 2013 Nobel prize laureate, François Englert turns 92… Former president and CEO of American Jewish World Service until 2016, prior to that she served as the Manhattan borough president, Ruth Wyler Messinger turns 84… Former commissioner of the Social Security Administration until 2021, Andrew Saul turns 78… Former aide to President Bill Clinton and a longtime advisor to Hillary Clinton, Sidney Blumenthal turns 76… Research scientist at NYU’s Langone Medical Center, Barbara Volsky turns 74… Senior chair of Sullivan & Cromwell, Joseph C. Shenker turns 68… Actress and cellist best known for her lead role in the 1984 film “Footloose” and the television series “Fame,” Lori Singer… and her twin brother, violinist, composer and conductor, he is the founder and music director of the Manhattan Symphonie, Gregory Singer both turn 67… Managing director of the NFL Players Association for 15 years until he retired five months ago, Ira Fishman turns 67… Editorial page editor and op-ed columnist for the Los Angeles Times until 2023, Nicholas Goldberg turns 66… Professional poker player from Las Vegas, he has won ten World Series of Poker bracelets and his total tournament winnings exceed $45.5 million, Erik Seidel turns 65… Founder of Nourish Snacks, she is the host of NBC’s “Health & Happiness” and author of 15 New York Times best-sellers, Joy Bauer turns 61… Philanthropist, she is the founder and chair of Emerson Collective and XQ Institute, Laurene Powell Jobs turns 61… Principal and COO at Douglass Winthrop Advisors, Andrew S. Weinberg… SVP of investments in the Beverly Hills office of Raymond James, Seth A. Radow… Chairman at IDTFS Bank in Gibraltar, he is a partner in Covenant Winery, Geoffrey Rochwarger turns 54… Host of the “Call Me Back” podcast and author of The Genius of Israel and Start-up Nation, Dan Senor turns 53… Director of external affairs at the William Davidson Foundation, Kari Alterman… Film producer, together with her husband Robert Downey Jr., Susan Nicole Levin Downey turns 51… South Florida entrepreneur, Earl J. Campos-Devine… Head cantor of Lincoln Square Synagogue in New York City, Yaakov (“Yanky”) Lemmer turns 41… and his younger brother, the first Haredi-born Jew to sign a contract with a leading record label, Shulem Lemmer turns 35…
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