The assassinations of Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut and Hamas’ political bureau leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran showed Israel’s long arm extending across the Middle East, but they are unlikely to change the status quo in the Gaza war and the risk of escalation across the Lebanon border is likely minimal, experts said on Thursday. 

The experts also predicted minimal ramifications to the ongoing talks for the release of over 100 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, which Israeli and American officials said they plan to continue  despite the assassination of Haniyeh, who was the terror group’s lead negotiator. Israel has not taken responsibility for killing Haniyeh.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Wednesday that “especially during these times, the State of Israel is working to achieve a framework for the release of hostages,” according to a readout of the call.

John Kirby, the National Security Council’s communications coordinator, said it was “too soon to know” if Haniyeh’s killing would impact hostage talks, and that “dramatic events” make negotiations more difficult, but it “doesn’t mean we are going to stop working on it.” 

“We are obviously concerned about an escalation and that complicates what we are trying to get done and this is a cease-fire and release of hostages,” Kirby said.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller also said that Blinken “emphasized the importance of continuing to work to reach a cease-fire and hostage deal in Gaza.” 

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, the mediator in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas to release the hostages, wrote in a post on X: “Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life.”

Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders lived for years in Qatar, which funneled massive funds into Gaza under the control of the terrorist organization.

Yoni Ben-Menachem, senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a veteran Arab affairs reporter, argued that Haniyeh’s death would not make a major difference in the war’s outcome because the Qatar-based Hamas official “doesn’t have any say. The one leading the war and the one controlling the hostages, holding them and deciding what will happen to them is [Hamas Gaza leader] Yahya Sinwar.”

Khaled Mashal is set to replace Haniyeh as Hamas’ political leader, and will play the same role in negotiations, Ben-Menachem said. Both were on bad terms with Sinwar because of past disputes, he added.

“I personally don’t believe Sinwar wants a deal now,” Ben-Menachem said. “First of all, contrary to what the IDF is briefing … they [Hamas] still have a lot of forces on the ground, so why should they make a deal? The second reason is that after [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, they saw that [President Joe] Biden, [Vice President Kamala] Harris and [former President Donald] Trump are pressuring him to stop the war immediately. … [Sinwar] can just wait and not have to deliver the hostages and the war may stop just because of international pressure on Israel … He is in no hurry.”

If anything, Ben-Menachem said, the assassinations could make Sinwar dig in his heels.

“He is convinced now that, because of the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh, Israel is going to an escalation with Iran and Hezbollah … and Israel will have to divert IDF forces from Gaza to the north and this will ease pressure in Gaza, so why should he make a deal?” Ben-Menachem said.

Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former deputy national security advisor, similarly argued that “the elimination of senior officials has not produced a change at the strategic level.”

“Their main benefit,” she explained in a paper for INSS, “comes from the cognitive value associated with it and the short-term consequences of the developments on the ground.”

“Israel’s assassination of Shukr once again proves Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities,” Mizrahi stated.

It is also “is a very hard and painful blow to Hezbollah … because of Shukr’s status and importance within the organization, serving as a sort of chief of staff at [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah’s side … [and] his direct responsibility as the head of Hezbollah’s strategic array for attacks on Israel’s northern communities since Oct. 8,” according to Mizrahi.

At the same time, eliminating Shukr will not stop Hezbollah’s war of attrition against Israel, she said, while arguing that “it is an appropriate response that allows both sides to avoid a wide war.” 

Ben-Menachem said that Haniyeh’s death “won’t have a big influence” within Hamas, noting that Israel has killed other leading figures in the terrorist group in the past and they “did not change the policy or the strategy.” 

He had the same assessment of the killing of Shukr: “Israel didn’t touch [Hezbollah’s] arsenal of accurate missiles, rockets or drones. He’s only a person. They’ll replace him and everything will stay the same.”

“This is a tactical thing, not a strategic change,” he said.

Ben-Menachem rejected the rationale for Haniyeh’s assassination that had been cited by other observers —  that killing Haniyeh would pressure Sinwar to move forward with a hostage deal, and that the assassination was a tool for Netanyahu to shore up political support.

Ben-Menachem said that assassinating Haniyeh was the right thing to do because “he was responsible for the massacre in the Gaza envelope. According to Israeli intelligence, he knew about it in advance. Also, if you remember, there is the video of the leaders of Hamas in Qatar watching the massacre happily.” 

In addition, Ben-Menachem said that assassinations “raise the morale for Israel and the IDF. People are happy the terrorists are dead. I’m happy also that they’re dead, but I know that it will not change the big strategic picture.”

While there may not be major changes in Hamas following Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered a direct strike on Israel in retaliation, The New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing three Iranian officials.