Locked in a competitive race with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is on a whirlwind of events with the Jewish community, working to shore up her support with a constituency that could prove crucial to her prospects in November’s Senate race.

A new poll of the Maryland Senate race commissioned by the AARP showed Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan tied at 46%, a surprisingly close result in a state that’s otherwise a Democratic stronghold.

The Jewish community in Maryland has traditionally been a strongly Democratic voting bloc, but Hogan won over many Jewish voters during his gubernatorial campaigns and has touted his work fighting antisemitism and defending Israel in this year’s Senate contest.

The Hogan campaign is anticipating elevated support from traditionally Democratic Jewish voters this election given the increased salience of Middle East policy following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Some Maryland Jewish voters — including over 70 rabbis in the state — have been outraged by Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s (D-MD) antagonistic record toward Israel, making his close ties to Alsobrooks a potential area of concern for her with the Jewish community. 

Alsobrooks seems to recognize the need to shore up her support with the Jewish community, holding four events with Jewish groups this week, including one on Wednesday, when she heard harrowing testimony from a group of Jewish middle and high school students about antisemitism they’ve experienced in their schools. She has another meet-and-greet with Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) and others set for Thursday.

“All Marylanders are important,” Alsobrooks told Jewish Insider after the Wednesday event. “The Jewish community — I think they’ve had a specific, unique experience, and… to represent people, you have to understand what that experience is. So I’ve spent a lot of time meeting, but I’ve also spent a lot of time listening.”

She said the goal of the event and others like it was to build relationships with her prospective constituents to “understand the everyday experience and know what the needs are.”

During the event, Alsobrooks emphasized the need for better education, social media regulation and inter-communal dialogue and understanding, as well as raised concerns about parents and other authority figures passing hateful ideologies and views onto children.

Ron Halber, the CEO of the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington, told JI that he’s somewhat surprised by the AARP poll’s results and anticipates that traditionally Democratic voters will shift back toward Alsobrooks before November, adding that he expects the same will be true of the Jewish vote.

“There’s no doubt that the majority of the Jewish vote is going to go to the county executive. That’s a foregone conclusion,” he said. “The question is how much — is it going to be 80% or is it going to be 55%?”

Hogan campaign director David Weinman told JI that while there is enthusiasm on the trail from the Jewish community for Hogan, he couldn’t predict how much of the Jewish vote Hogan would ultimately win over. Still, he expressed confidence that Hogan was making considerable inroads with the community. 

“If you look back at how the governor did in past races, he did much better with the Jewish vote than others,” Weinman said in an interview.

“Just anecdotally from the ground and seeing all the enthusiasm in the community and the inroads we’re making, I think there’s a possibility for those gains,” he added.

Howard Libit, the executive director of the Baltimore Jewish Council, agreed, describing Hogan as a “known quantity” in the Jewish community with a longstanding record, relationship and partnership that Alsobrooks lacks, particularly in the Baltimore area.

But, Libit continued, “what Larry Hogan is running up against is the tendency of a lot of Jews in Maryland to vote Democratic.”

He added that Cardin and other Jewish leaders have been working hard to build connections between Alsobrooks and the Jewish community, also highlighting the spate of Jewish community events she’s held recently.

Halber said he doesn’t see the Jewish vote as being decisive in the race unless accompanied by a “significant shift” among moderate Democrats broadly.

“Oct. 7 was such a shocking and transformative event on the collective Jewish psyche that antisemitism and Israel are going to rise in importance to the average Jewish voter in Maryland,” he said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that Hogan will get those votes.”

He added, however, that “Hogan has a bit of the edge among some of those voters who raised Israel to the top of their agenda… because he’s got a proven record as governor” of support for Israel. 

Other political analysts and operatives suggested that the Jewish vote was shifting toward Hogan — and was playing a notable role in his political standing in the deep-blue state.

“I’m seeing some discussions of what the Jewish vote may do in Pennsylvania, and I think about Maryland, it’s just going to be really close, and the poll reflects that. Every vote matters. If you take that as your baseline assumption about this race, then yes, the Jewish vote could have a material impact on the election,” Roger Zakheim, a Montgomery County resident and Washington director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, told JI.

Halber said some Jewish voters have told him they’re concerned about the level of influence that Van Hollen may have on Alsobrooks’ own foreign policy positions in the Senate — though he emphasized that many Jewish voters remain supportive of Van Hollen on most other issues.

At the same time, Halber said he expects Alsobrooks to form her own opinions on foreign policy and highlighted that Cardin has been campaigning aggressively for Alsobrooks, including defending her on Jewish issues. Cardin is often at odds with Van Hollen on issues affecting Israel and Middle East policy.

“Angela is proud to have the support of both Senator Van Hollen and Senator Cardin,” Alsobrooks campaign spokesperson Gina Ford said. “Angela makes her own decisions, and in the Senate the most important voices will be those of everyday Marylanders.”

Halie Soifer, the CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, who moderated a Jewish community event with Alsobrooks in a personal capacity earlier this week, said Alsobrooks made a clear break with Van Hollen during that event, expressing unequivocal support for continued and unconditioned aid to Israel and for the $14.3 billion in aid passed earlier this year. Soifer also described Alsobrooks as a “defender of the Jewish community” against antisemitism at home.

But despite those recent comments, Alsobrooks said in May that she would vote against future arms sales to Israel if the IDF invaded Rafah (an operation that has since happened) and agreed with the administration’s threat to withhold offensive weaponry.

“I think that everybody should assess the candidates based on their own views, not based on a guilt-by-association Republican narrative,” Soifer said.

Soifer said that the Jewish community in Maryland “stands strongly” with Alsobrooks, adding that the Jewish vote is a “critical part of a winning Democratic coalition,” given Jewish voters’ comparatively higher turnout rates. 

“The Jewish vote could absolutely determine the outcome of this election,” and potential control of the Senate,” Soifer said.

Asked whether his views on Israel could be hurting Alsobrooks in the Senate race, Van Hollen told JI: “Marylanders know that, like me, you can be pro-Israel and oppose Prime Minister Netanyahu’s policies just as those of us who oppose President Trump’s policies are not anti-American.”

Zakheim said his sense was that “the Maryland Jewish community is unsettled, both what’s happening nationally in response to the war in Gaza, the rhetoric against Israel and locally in terms of the rise of antisemitism in Montgomery County recently.”

“It’s very clear to me that the Jewish community wants to have champions, champions to lead against the rise of antisemitism and champions for the state of Israel. Governor Hogan is a champion. You just can’t say the same about Chris Van Hollen, especially after October 7, you just can’t. Alsobrooks is a question mark for some, and I’m sure there are those who would say she is, but I think generally that’s not proven, so it’s a concern,” he said.

Libit said that he’s also heard Jewish Hogan supporters argue that Alsobrooks would be aligned with Van Hollen on Israel policy, while Alsobrooks’ supporters say she’ll be more independent-minded.

“For those who vote on Israel, that’s going to be the key question — how effectively can she distinguish herself and make it clear she is going to set out on a path closer to Sen. Cardin than to Sen. Van Hollen?” Libit said.

However, ongoing uncertainties among some Jewish voters about her commitment to Israel underscore she still has work to do to shore up support. 

“The strengths of Larry Hogan with the Jewish community is that he’s known. He has a proven record. He led the state and was elected twice, and has been a great supporter of the Jewish community and state of Israel. Alsobrooks is just an unknown across many areas, I think that’s one of her challenges,” Zakheim said. 

Harrison Hickman, a veteran Democratic pollster, said he was “absolutely” certain that the Jewish vote could play a role in determining the outcome of the race and that he believed Hogan was making inroads with the community. 

“Just look at the map. She’s only going to win Prince George’s County, Baltimore City, she’s going to win Montgomery County, she’s probably going to win Anne Arundel County and Howard County, she’ll win Charles County. Those are the counties she’s almost bound to win. The question is going to be the margin in those counties, and that’s what Hogan has done successfully in his other two statewide races. He held the Democrat down to a manageable margin in Montgomery County, Howard County and Anne Arundel County,” Hickman said. 

Bobby Zirkin, a Jewish former Maryland state senator who is leading a campaign for Democrats to support Hogan, said he expects Hogan to “win overwhelmingly” in the Jewish community in the Pikesville area, where Zirkin lives.

“He’s been fantastic on issues that are of importance to the community,” Zirkin said. “I’m voting for Hogan because he’s proven himself on issues that I care about, and the number one issue on my mind is Israel and this ridiculous, bigoted antisemitism that we’ve seen on places like college campuses.”

He added that he doesn’t expect Jewish voters to support Hogan as a direct protest of Van Hollen, but may see Hogan as a stronger “counter” to Van Hollen in the state’s Senate delegation.

“Maryland needs a voice like Hogan’s in the U.S. Senate to help bring sanity to issues like defending Israel, to combat the outrageous misinformation and antisemitism from the far-left and far-right fringe and to provide a counter to Maryland’s other senator,” he elaborated in a Tuesday op-ed in the Baltimore Sun. “For me, electing the strongest voice possible on the issue of Israeli security is of paramount importance.”

Zirkin also argued to JI that having a moderate, independent voice like Hogan in the Republican Party would be a critical counterweight to the party’s extreme influences, especially in the likely event that Republicans retake the Senate in November.

Soifer dismissed the notion that Hogan would be able to make significant inroads in the Jewish community, arguing that he’s too close to former President Donald Trump — who she described as an open antisemite — now that Hogan has received Trump’s endorsement. (For his part, Hogan has not endorsed Trump for president, and was one of his most outspoken GOP critics throughout the 2024 campaign.)