Following Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-NY) landslide defeat last month, leading pro-Israel groups that spent heavily to help unseat him have now turned their focus to the next vulnerable Squad member on the primary calendar, Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO), who is also seeking to fend off a well-funded challenger.

The super PAC affiliated with AIPAC has already invested more than $4.6 million in the Aug. 6 primary to boost Bush’s formidable opponent, Wesley Bell, while Democratic Majority for Israel’s political arm dropped its first TV ad last week, spending around $250,000 on behalf of Bell, who is the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County.

Some pro-Israel activists, however, are also wondering why those groups haven’t engaged in what has so far remained a more low-profile House race in Minneapolis, where Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is preparing for a rematch against Don Samuels, a former city councilman who almost pulled off a surprise upset last election cycle against one of the most outspoken Israel critics in the House.

With early voting already underway in the Aug. 13 primary, a week after Bush’s race concludes, the matchup has yet to draw outside spending from national pro-Israel groups, which at this stage have announced plans to target only a small handful of Democratic incumbents in the current election cycle.

After he came within just 2,500 votes of unseating Omar in 2022, Samuels, a pro-Israel Democrat, notably expressed frustration that AIPAC and other groups had not rallied behind his campaign, even as it was later disclosed in federal filings that United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, had quietly contributed $350,000 to a separate group created to boost his candidacy in the final days of the race.

Despite that lone investment, Samuels now suggests that if pro-Israel groups that largely sat the last race out choose not to engage more actively before next month’s primary, then they will be missing out on a key opportunity, claiming that his rematch remains competitive amid what he characterized as continued and growing dissatisfaction with Omar’s representation.

“I think it’s a mistake for anybody who sees the direction the country is going in, who sees Ilhan’s role in it in terms of the divisiveness in general and, in this specific case, the challenges in the Middle East that are so fraught,” Samuels, now 75, said in an interview with Jewish Insider last week, accusing Omar’s rhetoric toward Israel of “exacerbating those tensions.”

“Any group that sees that and feels invested in outcomes that is not getting involved in this race,” he argued, “is losing an opportunity.”

A spokesperson for AIPAC did not explicitly rule out engaging in the primary in a recent email to JI, noting broadly that the group is “continuing to evaluate races that involve detractors of the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

When Samuels announced his second campaign last November, he confirmed to JI that he had not been in touch with AIPAC, which months earlier had privately sought to enlist a separate challenger, LaTrisha Vetaw, a Minneapolis councilwoman who declined to enter the race.

Joe Radinovich, Samuels’ campaign manager, said his “understanding” is that” AIPAC is “continuing to monitor the race” and “may weigh in.” But he noted that it is “unclear at this point” if the group will opt to engage in the primary.

DMFI PAC, Democratic Majority for Israel’s super PAC, did not return a request for comment from JI last week.

The Jewish Democratic Council of America, which like DMFI and AIPAC also backed challengers to Bowman and Bush this cycle, said it would make a decision on endorsing Samuels at its monthly board meeting near the end of the month.

“It’s possible that we’d make an endorsement in this race,” Halie Soifer, the JDCA’s CEO, said in a recent interview with JI. “We have publicly and privately expressed concerns with the views and positions of Congresswoman Omar.”

Even without outside help, Samuels and his allies cautiously believe the race is winnable, citing past voter data showing that Omar has underperformed as an incumbent, while arguing that she is far more vulnerable than her status as a national progressive figurehead would suggest.

Meanwhile, some observers warn that pro-Israel spending in the primary could ultimately backfire in the heavily progressive district, fueling attacks from Omar and her allies, who have used the threat of AIPAC’s spending to raise money for her campaign.  

Speaking with JI, Samuels dismissed such rhetoric as “consistent with” Omar’s “style of campaigning and of debating, by identifying her vulnerabilities as a driver for sympathy and support.”

In her first reelection campaign in 2020, Omar — who was forced to apologize for comments on the pro-Israel lobby early in her tenure that critics accused of promoting antisemitic tropes — faced a lesser-known challenger who received millions from pro-Israel donors. That spending, however, also drew fundraising to Omar, who won by 20 points.

To avoid potential blowback, one pro-Israel source familiar with the primary said it “wouldn’t surprise” him if AIPAC “went in at the end” of the race — in a repeat of its strategy last cycle.

Notwithstanding the risks, Samuels’ supporters acknowledge that any backing from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups could help to add a sorely needed boost to his fundraising as he has continued to trail far behind Omar, whose campaign raised $1.6 million in the second quarter, with more than $1.8 million on hand.

By contrast, Samuels’ campaign pulled in $535,000 in the second quarter, entering July with just over $330,000 in the bank. Earlier this week, Samuels released his first TV ad, alleging that Omar “has gone missing on” such issues as public safety and infrastructure, while highlighting his commitment to the community. His campaign vowed to “increase TV advertising spending in the coming weeks,” but it remains to be seen how robust his marketing efforts will be, absent a significant fundraising jolt in the final stretch of the race.

Omar, who clinched the state party endorsement in May, has been better prepared for the rematch after she was caught by surprise in her last primary. Her campaign has been spending heavily on paid media to promote her campaign in the district, including a new TV ad touting her ties to President Joe Biden.

Internal polling from both campaigns has shown Omar, 41, with a healthy lead over Samuels — who counters that he overcame a similar deficit last cycle and ultimately lost by just two points.

“The way Ilhan leads and the way she runs are similar in that it’s low touch, high dollars,” Samuels argued. “She’s raised a lot of money, but you don’t see her around. She doesn’t expose herself to the questions, the doubts, the anxieties, because she has, in her style, chosen a faction.”

In response to a request for comment on the race, a spokesperson for Omar’s campaign shared a recent statement in which the congresswoman said she “is ready to turnout voters in the August primary” and “is building a multi-racial, multi-generational coalition of voters from all parts of the district.”

This cycle, Samuels boasts of a “robust ground game” and a large base of volunteers promoting his candidacy across the district, which includes all of Minneapolis and some surrounding suburbs. The Samuels campaign is also seeking to increase participation among an estimated 30,000 Jewish voters whose support it believes could prove decisive in what is expected to be a low-turnout election.

Even as pro-Israel groups have so far stayed on the sidelines, the local Jewish community has been highly engaged in the primary, said a pro-Israel activist in the district who volunteers for Samuels’ campaign and has opposed Omar in previous races.

“It’s not just the Jewish community that has gotten very activated this year,” the activist, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss the race, told JI last week. “It’s also lots of people who sat things out in 2022 because they thought she was invincible, and then when they saw how close Don came, they said, ‘Oh, if I had only gotten involved, then I might have made a difference.’ They’re getting involved now.”

Samuels, for his part, echoed that assessment. “The last cycle, somewhat frustratingly,” he explained, “many of my conversations were on answering the question, ‘Can you win? What are you going to do differently than your predecessor? This is such an uphill climb.’”

“This time around, nobody’s asking that question,” he said. “It is, ‘What are you going to do differently to close that gap? That’s the only doubt.”