Daily Kickoff
Good Monday morning.
Ed.’s note: We will not be publishing the Daily Kickoff tomorrow in observance of the fast of Tisha B’Av.
In today’s Daily Kickoff we look at the change in momentum in the presidential race, and preview the Minneapolis Democratic primary taking place tomorrow in which Don Samuels is challenging Rep. Ilhan Omar. We also profile Brian Nelson, the L.A. lawyer tapped as Vice President Kamala Harris’ senior policy adviser, and spotlight new texts written for Tisha B’Av to mourn the events of Oct. 7. Also in today’s Daily Kickoff: Doug Emhoff, John Kirby and Anita Lasker-Wallfisch.
What We’re Watching
- Israeli intelligence sources told Axios that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Israeli media reported that the attack is expected to happen in the next few days — possibly before the cease-fire talks are set to resume on Thursday.
- Meanwhile, Lebanese media reported that Hezbollah has evacuated its headquarters in the Beirut suburb of Dahieh in preparation for an escalation.
- Secretary of State Tony Blinken, CIA Director Bill Burns and White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk are all expected to travel to the Middle East early this week for hostage deal negotiations. McGurk will be in Cairo for talks with Egyptian and Israeli officials to finalize security arrangements on the Gaza-Egypt border.
- The leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom released a joint statement lauding Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. for its efforts to reach an agreement and, expressing “deep concern” over heightened tensions in the region, called on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks that would further escalate the situation.
- Hamas announced on Sunday that it rejected the invitation to participate, placing a snag into the negotiations. Hamas claimed that new Israeli demands, the assassination of Haniyeh and recent strikes in the Gaza Strip were behind its decision and demanded that mediators present a plan based on previous talks.
What You Should Know
Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged with small but significant leads over former President Donald Trump in the three most critical battleground states, according to new New York Times/Siena polls.
The surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin underscore how significantly the presidential race has changed since Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket. She’s received a jolt of energy from a recently dispirited Democratic base, and has transformed her image from a not-ready-for-prime-time vice president into a candidate capable of becoming commander-in-chief, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.
Her sudden rise comes as Trump’s campaign has badly struggled to define her, and as she’s received largely positive press coverage during this political honeymoon — a dynamic she’s never experienced since entering the national political stage in 2019 as a presidential candidate. Her rallies with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have drawn packed, energetic crowds in swing states across the country.
The new survey data, from one of the most reliable public pollsters, shows Harris leading Trump 50-46% among likely voters in all three of the pivotal Rust Belt swing states. Harris maintains her advantages with registered voters in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but trails Trump narrowly in Michigan among a larger potential voting pool.
The polling underscores that Trump’s campaign was badly unprepared for Harris as its opponent, and has failed to land punches over her liberal record and questions over competence that have dogged her as vice president.
Her overall favorability rating, after being underwater for much of her national political career, is now at 48% among voters in the three battlegrounds, with 49% viewing her unfavorably. Nearly two-thirds (66%) view her as “very” or “somewhat” intelligent, while over half (53%) said she brings a “clear vision” for the country.
Most significantly, it shows Harris putting together a coalition that resembles former President Barack Obama’s winning coalition in 2012 — particularly her strengths among white Midwestern voters, according to this new polling. Trump is only leading Harris by two points among white voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (For context: former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won white voters in Pennsylvania by 15 points, and white voters in Wisconsin by three points, according to 2012 exit polls.)
At the same time, the poll shows Trump has made inroads with non-white voters. He is winning 18% of Black voters, which would mark a significant boost from his 2020 record with the heavily Democratic constituency. And among “other” nonwhite voters, the Times/Siena poll shows Trump leading Harris, 48-46% in these three swing states.
The swing-state Senate polling also shows Democrats holding sizable leads in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin races, while the Michigan Senate race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is statistically tied. But the Senate campaigns haven’t begun in earnest yet, and should tighten as Republican challengers get better known.
Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted to the Times that Harris’ polling surge is part of an extended honeymoon since replacing Biden on the ticket, and that her numbers will come back to earth after the Democratic convention in two weeks. That’s a very realistic prediction, given the degree of positive “earned media” she’s been receiving lately.
At the same time, Trump’s campaign has badly struggled on a message to define Harris — even as his advisers have been urging him to focus on her progressive record and high-profile flubs as vice president. And with weeks of early voting in some states, the timetable to change hearts and minds is narrowing.
The Sept. 10 ABC News debate between Trump and Harris — potentially the only televised clash between the two — is shaping up to be the best chance for Trump to turn his fortunes around. The former president now appears to have as much at stake at the debate next month as Biden did the first time around.
samuels’ strategy
Ilhan Omar primary opponent gets a fundraising boost after Cori Bush defeat
In the hours after Wesley Bell’s upset victory over Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) last Tuesday, Don Samuels, a Democrat challenging Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) in a Minneapolis primary tomorrow, saw an influx of contributions to his underdog campaign. By Friday morning, Samuels, a former Minneapolis councilman who came close to defeating Omar last election cycle, had raised nearly $160,000, he said, surpassing his total cash haul for most of July and lending his campaign a bit of momentum in the final few days of the race. “The turn in sentiment against Ilhan Omar and toward me is stronger and stronger as the campaign goes on,” Samuels, 75, said in an interview with Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel last week. “People are looking for an alternative.”
Strategists’ skepticism: But while Samuels and his allies remain optimistic about his chances, strategists who have followed the primary are skeptical he can replicate Bell’s success, which came two months after Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), another Squad-aligned House member, fell to defeat in a bitterly contested New York primary. “There’s a lot of last-minute fundraising for Don by folks who want to see the Squad out,” Manny Houle, a Democratic operative familiar with race, told JI on Friday. “But this last-minute inundation of funds is not supporting the ground game necessary.”
top spot
The L.A. lawyer who has Harris’ ear on policy
Last month, Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Brian Nelson, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department, as a senior adviser for policy, making him one of the first major campaign hires from Harris’ West Coast inner circle — not a holdover from the campaign apparatus built by President Joe Biden, nor one of the Obama-era strategists brought on by Harris to capitalize on Democrats’ grassroots energy, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports. “Brian was one of those guys who came over early in her term, and he very quickly just became one of her most trusted confidants in that office,” said Brian Brokaw, a political consultant in California who managed Harris’ campaign for attorney general in 2010.
Policy chops: Harris first hired Nelson in 2011, bringing him to the California Department of Justice while she was attorney general. He worked closely with Harris on legal matters touching on a range of issues, including health care, environmental policy and immigration. At the Treasury Department, Nelson oversaw U.S. sanctions policy, including the rollout of comprehensive sanctions against Russia and the targeting of Hamas after Oct. 7. A senior Biden administration official described Nelson as “an instrumental figure in imposing punishing sanctions on terrorist groups and our adversaries, as part of our effort to support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups.”
emhoff in paris
Emhoff condemns ‘ferocious surge of antisemitism’ at memorial for 1982 Paris attack
Leading an official presidential delegation to the Olympic Games may be the most fun job in politics right now — and that’s what brought Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff to Paris last week. While in the French capital, Emhoff also devoted time to meeting with international leaders about the global surge in antisemitism. The visit came just weeks after his wife, Vice President Kamala Harris, became the likely Democratic nominee for president, bringing a greater spotlight to Emhoff and the work he has done combating antisemitism for the past two years, Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
Memorial ceremony: On Friday morning, before a visit to the Athletes’ Village and then an evening as a spectator on the sidelines of Olympic events, Emhoff spoke at a memorial ceremony for victims of a 1982 attack at a kosher restaurant. “On Aug. 9, 1982, six innocent people, including two Americans, were murdered at the Chez Jo Goldenberg restaurant. Twenty-two others were injured,” Emhoff said, speaking on the 42nd anniversary of the attack, one of the deadliest for French Jews since the Holocaust. “They were murdered by terrorists who hated them simply because of their connection to the Jewish community.” Emhoff and U.S. Ambassador to France Denise Campbell Bauer lit a candle in honor of the victims of the attack.
Read the full story here.
slamming smotrich
White House slams Israeli minister Smotrich as ‘extremist’ seeking to scuttle hostage deal
Senior White House spokesperson John Kirby on Friday slammed Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for comments he has made undermining U.S.-led efforts to negotiate a hostage-for-cease-fire deal, calling the far-right minister an “extremist” whose views would “sacrifice the lives of Israeli hostages,” Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch reports.
Negotiations update: Kirby’s remarks came a day after the leaders of the United States, Egypt and Qatar released a joint statement calling for Israel and Hamas to send negotiators to a new round of negotiations on Aug. 15. In Kirby’s unusually public — and unusually harsh — condemnation of Smotrich, he drew a distinction between Smotrich and other Israeli leaders, pointing out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office agreed to send Israeli officials to the Aug. 15 meeting. “We’re glad that Israel has made it very clear and very public that they will send a negotiating team, and they’ll do it in good faith,” said Kirby. Hamas announced on Sunday that it did not plan to participate in the negotiations.
sign of the times
The rabbis adding Oct. 7 to their Tisha B’Av lamentations
On Monday evening, Jews across the world will gather to hear Megillat Eichah, the Book of Lamentations, referring to the destruction of the First Temple in Jerusalem, and read Kinot, additional lamentations, including tragic events after the Second Temple was destroyed, the Crusades period and beyond. Some congregations in Israel and the Diaspora will have new texts to read about more recent, tragic events, the greatest massacre of Jewish people since the Holocaust, Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov reports. Tzohar, one of Israel’s leading Modern Orthodox rabbinical organizations, disseminated a companion text, in Hebrew and in English, to congregations whose members’ “minds are oscillating between the destruction of the Temple and more recent atrocities of October 7th.”
New meaning: Tzohar’s chairman, Rabbi David Stav, told JI that most years, the religious Zionist population in Israel – which believes that the establishment of the Jewish state is an early manifestation of God’s redemption – has difficulty relating to Tisha B’Av and its texts relating to ancient, distant matters. “For the first time in many years, saying kinot will be much more natural,” Stav said. “Until recently, most of Israeli society felt fine. Things were good for us. We knew there was no Temple, but it didn’t bother most of us that much. We [rabbis] had to explain to Israelis why we have to mourn over there being no Temple. Today, that is not the situation.”
Worthy Reads
The Trump Train, Derailed: In The New York Times, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan interview more than a dozen people close to former President Donald Trump about what has been described as the rockiest period of Trump’s campaign. “As Ms. [Kamala] Harris — long ridiculed and underestimated — has transformed the contest, campaigning energetically and drawing roughly even with Mr. Trump in many polls, Mr. Trump has responded with one unforced error after another while struggling to land on an effective and consistent argument against her. He has found the change disorienting, those who interact with him say. Mr. Trump had grown comfortable campaigning against an 81-year-old incumbent who struggled to navigate stairs, thoughts and sentences. Suddenly, he finds himself in a race against a Black woman nearly 20 years younger, one who has already made history and who is drawing large and excited crowds.The people around Mr. Trump see a candidate knocked off his bearings, nothing like the man who reclined serenely on July 15 as he watched as thousands of delegates cheered him on the first night of the Republican National Convention. Then, Mr. Trump, his ear bandaged, was a living martyr after the assassination attempt two days before. Inside the Milwaukee arena, the Democrats had already been defeated; the only thing left to wonder about was the margin of Mr. Trump’s victory.” [NYT]
Strings Attached to the Shoah:The New Yorker’s Alex Ross interviews Anita Lasker-Wallfisch, a 99-year-old Holocaust survivor who was a cellist in Auschwitz’s women’s orchestra and who, for the new documentary “The Commandant’s Shadow,” met with the son of Rudolf Höss, the commandant of Auschwitz. “As the number of Holocaust survivors dwindles, Lasker-Wallfisch is one of the most forceful and eloquent witnesses still living. More than that, she embodies a lost way of being — the intellectual spark of German Jewish culture before Hitler. With her shock of white hair, ruddy face, and exacting eyes, she looks twenty years younger than she is. She is mordantly funny. She speaks in epigrams and aphorisms. She has no patience with sentimentality or stupidity. An unrepentant smoker, she intersperses her remarks with well-timed drags on a cigarette. Her voice has descended at least an octave since 1945. The word ‘indomitable’ might have been invented for her. She is perhaps the most awe-inspiring person I have ever met. ‘I recently had another visitor,’ she said to me. ‘The son of Rudolf Höss, the commandant of Auschwitz. Sitting in that chair, right where you are now.’ … The spectacle offers a striking inversion of power. As she put it to me, with a slightly mischievous air, ‘I have never seen anyone so nervous to come into my little house!’” [New Yorker]
Eye on Iran: In The Free Press, Jay Solomon profiles Phil Gordon, Vice President Kamala Harris’ national security adviser, and explores his views on Iran. “It is Gordon’s view of Iran that has most alarmed Republicans and critics of a constrained American foreign policy. No recent foreign policy issue has divided Democrats and Republicans more than the Iran nuclear deal—Obama’s signature achievement. Architects of the deal, including Gordon, argue that it is a template for a new American foreign policy. They say the agreement—had Trump not scuttled it—would have neutralized Tehran’s nuclear capacity without requiring American or Israeli military action. And they argue the easing of economic sanctions could have allowed Iranian businesses and civil society to better integrate internationally and potentially moderate Tehran’s clerics.” [The Free Press]
Word on the Street
Former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign said it was hacked, and suggested Iranian operatives were involved in stealing and leaking sensitive documents. On Friday, Microsoft released a report declaring that a hacking group run by the intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps successfully breached the account of a “former senior adviser” to a presidential campaign…
Politico received emails from an anonymous account starting on July 22, relaying internal documents from the campaign — including a purported dossier on Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), now Trump’s running mate…
In late July, Trump ordered an aide to fire off angry text messages to Miriam Adelson, who is funding a super PAC boosting Trump’s campaign — according to a New York Times deep dive into Trump’s campaign struggles. The texts complained about the staff running her super PAC, Preserve America, and accusing them of being RINOs (Republicans in name only). The text messages prompted panic that Adelson could pull back her financial backing — which hasn’t transpired…
The Republican Jewish Coalition is challenging speakers at next week’s Democratic convention to praise Israel on stage, pledging to plant 1,800 trees in Israel on behalf of every speaker who does so…
The Washington Examiner reported that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on at least five occasions hosted Asad Zaman, an imam who celebrated Hamas‘ Oct. 7 attack last year on Israel and promoted a film popular among neo-Nazis that glorifies Adolf Hitler. All the meetings took place before the Oct. 7 attack. Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign told Jewish Insider’s Gabby Deutch about Zaman: “The Governor & he do not have a personal relationship. Governor Walz strongly condemns Hamas terrorism.”…
The head of the IZH Islamic Center in Hamburg received instructions in hundreds of text messages from an Iranian official who aimed to “bring about an Islamic revolution in Germany to impose theocratic rule,” before the institution was closed down last month, Der Spiegel reports…
Phil Gordon, Harris’ national security adviser, tweeted condemnation of reports of sexual abuse in Israeli prisons, equating the allegations to comments Harris made condemning Hamas’ sexual violence on Oct. 7. Ira Stoll, in his “The Editors” Substack, argues that the tweet, along with another post by Gordon on Saturday about Israel’s strike in Gaza, is fueling antisemitism…
A federal grand jury added a hate crime charge to an antisemitic incident that occurred in December outside Kesher Israel Congregation in Washington, D.C…
A Jewish man was stabbed near Chabad’s Crown Heights, Brooklyn, headquarters by a man shouting “Free Palestine” …
Antisemitic messages were graffitied on Bethesda Elementary School in Bethesda, Md., and on surrounding streets in the area. The Anti-Defamation League’s D.C. chapter called it “reflective of a continuing trend of antisemitic incidents increasing daily”…
The Florida state university system will review public university courses for “antisemitism or anti-Israeli bias…”
Holocaust survivorssay that the rise of antisemitism and protests in the U.S. has triggered PTSD…
More than two dozen anti-Israel demonstrators who shut down the Golden Gate Bridge in April were charged by San Francisco prosecutors, the San Francisco Chronicle reported…
Hamas claimed responsibility for a terror attack that killed an Israeli civilian and wounded another on a highway in the West Bank yesterday…
The Biden administration has decided to reverse a three-year-old ban on U.S. sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia…
The New York Times’ Nicholas Kasey reports from Kadugli, Sudan, on the ongoing war that has displaced some 11 million people and, according to one U.S. State Department official’s estimation, killed some 150,000 people, but has attracted scant media coverage…
The Wall Street Journal reports from northeastern Syria on a little-known U.S. military campaign to contain an Islamic State resurgence…
A recent national intelligence report to Congress flagged that the Islamic Republic has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,” The Wall Street Journal reports…
Iran is expected to deliver hundreds of satellite-guided weapons to Russia soon for its war in Ukraine, Reuters reports…
The New York Times profiles Bari Weiss, the founder of The Free Press who quit the Times in 2022, accusing colleagues there of bullying and groupthink…
Bloomberg spotlights election forecaster and writer Nate Silver, who after his departure from FiveThirtyEight last year has published a new book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything…
Susan Wojcicki, Google’s first marketing manager who went on to become the CEO of YouTube until last year, died at 56…
Howie Cohen, an advertising copywriter who conjured catchy, well-known slogans such as Alka-Seltzer’s “I can’t believe I ate the whole thing,” died at 81…
Pic of the Day
Team Israel, which won the silver medal in the rhythmic gymnastics all-around, celebrated on Saturday after competing in the event final at the Summer Olympics in Paris.
Birthdays
Award-winning writer and the author of several novels and a novella, Rachel Kadish turns 55…
Hungarian-American investor and philanthropist, born György Schwartz, George Soros turns 94… Retired Beverly Hills attorney, Sheldon Stanford Ellis… Emmy Award-winning television screenwriter, television producer and author, Gail Parent turns 84… Attorney in Ontario, Canada, who served as president of the Canadian Jewish Congress, Lester Scheininger turns 77… Co-founder and chairman of the film and television company Beacon Pictures, Barry “Armyan” Bernstein turns 77… U.S. diplomat, Karyn Allison Posner-Mullen turns 73… Interim operations manager at Houston’s Congregation Emanu El, Fredi Bleeker Franks… Sales manager of Illi Commercial Real Estate in Sherman Oaks, Calif., Stuart Steinberg… Israel’s former ambassador to Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Albania, Noah Gal Gendler turns 67… Former member of Knesset from the Yesh Atid party, Haim Yellin turns 66… Founding editor of The Times of Israel, David Horovitz turns 62… Senior rabbi at Brookline, Mass.’ Temple Beth Zion, Claudia Kreiman… Chief strategy officer at NYC’s Educational Alliance, Anya Hoerburger… Chief marketing officer at Cross Campus, Jay Chernikoff… Co-founder at Understory, David Fine… CEO and co-founder of Forsight, Ariel Applbaum…
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