ASPEN, Colo. — Secretary of State Tony Blinken said on Friday that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout period —  the time it would need to create sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon — to one to two weeks.

In recent weeks and months Iran has been “moving forward in terms of the capacity to break out, in producing fissile material,” Blinken said at the Aspen Security Forum. 

Blinken’s estimate of Iran’s breakout time sent ripples through the crowd with some whispers of “Jesus.” 

But Blinken said that Iran hasn’t produced a nuclear weapon itself. He said the U.S. is closely tracking Iran’s progress and insisted that it has been “maximizing pressure on Iran across the board” — invoking the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” language — through new and existing sanctions and greater cooperation with European partners.

At @AspenSecurity, @SecBlinken: Iran is 1-2 weeks away from producing material for a nuclear weapon, @marcrod97 reports. https://t.co/W4WcqSd5r8 pic.twitter.com/EREo9UrGJr

— Jewish Insider (@J_Insider) July 19, 2024

Blinken also said that Israel and Hamas are close to a deal to secure a cease-fire and the release of additional hostages from Gaza.

“We’re inside the 10 yard line and driving toward the goal line,” Blinken said, while acknowledging that there are still some points of difference to be resolved, which negotiators are currently working on.

“We also know that, with anything, the last 10 yards are often the hardest,” Blinken continued. “So I don’t want to be in any way naive about it.”

In spite of the vote in the Israeli Knesset earlier this week to reject a two-state solution, Blinken said that it is “not dead [and] it can’t be,” arguing that it’s the only way to ensure peace and security for both Israel and the Palestinians.

“Neither is going anywhere,” Blinken said. “Palestinians are not going anywhere. The Jews are not going anywhere. There has to be an accommodation.”

He also acknowledged that there will be a “responsibility” for a Palestinian state not to be a threat to Israel, not to be a “Hamas-stan” and not to be effectively ruled by a terrorist group like Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Blinken, implicitly pushing back on Israeli arguments that a Palestinian state would serve as a reward to Hamas for its Oct. 7 attack, argued that the “two strongest opponents” of a two-state solution are Iran and Hamas and that “the strongest possible to both Iran and Hamas would be the realization of two states”

Addressing the recent Iranian elections, Blinken said that the U.S. does not have “great expectations” for change under the new, supposedly moderate president, given that Ayatollah Ali Khameini continues to be the ultimate decision-maker in the regime. But he said that the U.S. will evaluate his performance in office.

At @AspenSecurity, “We’re inside the 10 yard line and driving toward the goal line,” @SecBlinken said, while acknowledging that there are still some points of difference to be resolved, which negotiators are currently working on. Read more from @marcrod97:… pic.twitter.com/6XtRxmjUOa

— Jewish Insider (@J_Insider) July 19, 2024