A new poll commissioned by a left-wing advocacy group is raising hopes among progressive activists eager to enlist a challenger to take on Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), a pro-Israel Democrat whose House district leans heavily to the left, in next year’s June primary election.

The poll, released this week by Demand Progress Action, shows Brad Lander, the New York City comptroller, leading by 19 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Goldman, who wins just 33% of the vote. Lander, who served as a longtime city councilman in the district, claims 52% among likely Democratic primary voters, while also boasting a higher favorability rating, according to the poll.

While the survey was meant to coax Lander into entering the primary, it remains unclear if he has the appetite to compete in what would likely be a bitter race for the seat covering Lower Manhattan and a swath of Brooklyn, including such progressive enclaves as Park Slope.

Lander, a well-known progressive who has not explicitly ruled out a congressional bid after losing in the New York City mayoral primary, is more widely expected to accept a senior role in a potential administration of Zohran Mamdani, the far-left Democratic nominee for mayor whose upset in June lent renewed energy to progressive activists who have eyed challenges to several mainstream House Democrats in New York City.

Still, Lander had been looking at Goldman’s seat since before the primary concluded, according to a political consultant familiar with the situation, who suggested the  city comptroller could be “serious” about a campaign.

Lander’s team, several members of which have joined Mamdani’s campaign, has also reportedly clashed with the nominee’s aides, fueling speculation about his prospects for securing a position in a potential future administration. A person familiar with some of the internal tensions said broadly that they stem in part from a lingering Brooklyn political dispute involving Lander and grudgingly recalled by some close aides to Mamdani.

“I think that Lander can beat Goldman, but I thought that even before the poll came out,” said Jeff Leb, a political consultant who worked to elect Goldman during his first primary in 2022, when the former Trump impeachment prosecutor beat a crowded field of progressives to clinch the nomination with a plurality of the vote.

A spokesperson for Lander did not respond to a request for comment from Jewish Insider on his plans for a challenge. His team has otherwise said that “there is no drama between Brad and Zohran or their ‘camps.’”

If Lander chooses to run for the seat held by Goldman, a two-term Jewish Democrat whose strong support for Israel and refusal to endorse Mamdani have sparked backlash among left-wing voters, he would be a formidable candidate, experts say, citing his widespread popularity in a district he has long called home.

“I think that Lander can beat Goldman, but I thought that even before the poll came out,” said Jeff Leb, a political consultant who worked to elect Goldman during his first primary in 2022, when the former Trump impeachment prosecutor beat a crowded field of progressives to clinch the nomination with a plurality of the vote.

The potential matchup would also set up a unique primary between two Jewish Democrats who both identify as Zionists but have differing approaches to what that label means, particularly in the aftermath of Hamas Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the ensuing war in Gaza.

Goldman, for his part, has continued to back U.S. military aid to Israel, even as he recently said the “crisis in Gaza shocks the conscience” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “personal and political interests are guiding Israel’s actions, rather than what is best for” the Jewish state.

The 49-year-old lawmaker has also withheld an endorsement of Mamdani until he takes “concrete steps” to address concerns raised by Jewish voters over his anti-Israel rhetoric, including his refusal to explicitly condemn calls to “globalize the intifada,” a phrase many Jews view as antisemitic. Mamdani has said he does not use the slogan and that he will discourage its usage.

Goldman’s largely left-leaning House seat “is probably one of the biggest changes in terms of pro-Israel to not pro-Israel districts in the city,” said Chris Coffey, a veteran Democratic strategist who lives in the district and helped advise former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid during the primary.

Lander, who has long identified as a progressive Zionist, is a vocal critic of Israel’s war in Gaza and has called for pulling aid to Israel. The 56-year-old comptroller has faced criticism from the organized Jewish community for divesting from Israel bonds while in office, though he has said the decision was not political. Lander was a key Jewish validator for Mamdani in the primary, cross-endorsing with the 33-year-old democratic socialist and assemblyman from Queens. Mamdani won Goldman’s district in June.

Speaking at a Jews for Racial and Economic Justice event earlier this week, Lander said he had not done enough “to speak out against Israel’s war crimes, against ethnic cleansing, against forced starvation of Palestinians.”

Chris Coffey, a veteran Democratic strategist who lives in the district and helped advise former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid during the primary, said that Goldman is not likely to find himself in a vulnerable position unless Lander chooses to run, an outcome he does not anticipate with Mamdani well poised to win the general election.

Still, Goldman is now in a “precarious place,” Coffey told JI, “where he’s a pro-Israel Democrat in a time when it’s been harder to be a pro-Israel Democrat.”

Goldman’s largely left-leaning House seat “is probably one of the biggest changes in terms of pro-Israel to not pro-Israel districts in the city,” he added, noting the shift had occurred in recent years amid growing Democratic divisions over Israel and Gaza.

Some observers recently speculated that Goldman could switch districts and run for retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) seat further north in Manhattan, where he would likely face a more friendly electorate. But his team has dismissed that idea as unfounded and said Goldman had no plans to run for another seat.   

“Dan Goldman isn’t a moderate, he’s definitely left of center,” said Leb, who is now working on a super PAC to oppose Mamdani. “Brad may win because of his name ID and reputation but any other opponent would likely lose.”

The poll released on Wednesday underscored that view, showing that Goldman would win with 41% of the vote against an unnamed Democratic candidate. His lead evaporated after the poll had, among other things, linked him to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, which had quietly funded a local super PAC three years ago to help boost his first primary bid.

AIPAC, whose political arm endorsed Goldman in February, did not return a request for comment on a potential primary.

“Dan is laser-focused on rooting out government corruption, defending our democracy from Donald Trump and leveling the playing field for all New Yorkers.” Simone Kanter, a senior advisor to Goldman, told JI. “Anyone who would like to throw their hat in the ring is more than welcome to.”

David Greenfield, a former city councilman who leads the Jewish anti-poverty group Met Council, said the results of the poll were unsurprising, even as he dismissed the survey for posing a “misleading” question. “Everyone knows Brad is not running for Congress,” he told JI, “because he’s slated to join a Zohran Mamdani administration.”

It was unclear if the poll had surveyed respondents about other potential candidates. Demand Progress Action did not return requests for comment, nor did Data for Progress, a progressive firm that conducted the poll.

Simone Kanter, a senior advisor to Goldman, told JI the congressman’s team is “not paying any attention to agenda-driven push polls.”

“Dan is laser-focused on rooting out government corruption, defending our democracy from Donald Trump and leveling the playing field for all New Yorkers.” Kanter said on Thursday. “Anyone who would like to throw their hat in the ring is more than welcome to.”

While a competitive primary would likely attract spending from outside groups, Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune whose estimated net worth is up to $250 million, could also self-fund his bid as he did in 2022 — when he prevailed with 26% of the vote in a crowded field of well-known politicians. 

Yuh-Line Niou, a former state assemblywoman who came in second in 2022 with 24%, has said privately she plans to run again and has been making calls to feel out support, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Niou, an outspoken progressive who faced backlash in the last race for backing the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel, declined to comment on the record when reached this week by JI. 

Goldman is also likely to face a repeat challenger from his 2024 primary, Evan Hutchison, who won 24% of the vote last cycle and has recently sent out fundraising texts saying that the incumbent “won’t condemn Israel’s genocide in Gaza.” But strategists said they do not see his campaign as a serious threat to Goldman, who claimed 66% in his last primary.