Michigan’s 100,000-strong Jewish population could prove key to shaping the margin of victory in Tuesday’s closely contested presidential and Senate races, and both the Democratic and Republican camps are making aggressive plays for those voters.

Republicans say they’re expecting a significant increase in Jewish and non-Jewish pro-Israel voters supporting the Republican ticket this election, citing concerns about the war in the Middle East, with still others leaving the presidential ballot blank. Democrats say they’re expecting most Jewish voters to support Democrats — but are working on several fronts to shore up their support in the Jewish community.

David Hecker, the longtime former president of the American Federation of Teachers in Michigan, is leading the Harris campaign’s Jewish outreach in the state. He was skeptical of the notion of a significant Jewish swing toward Trump.

“The overwhelming majority of Jews in Michigan will vote for Kamala Harris,” Hecker said. “This year, 2024, is different than any other year given the horrendous war. From those people who have been undecided, it comes down to the war. The undecided people I’ve interacted with, who the campaign has interacted with, are not voting for Trump. It’s a question of whether they’re voting for president or not.”

The Harris campaign has sent a parade of surrogates to meet with Jewish voters in the state starting in September: Reps. Kathy Manning (D-NC), Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Ritchie Torres (D-NY), and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. Manning and Torres specifically met with undecided Jewish voters. Pro-Harris Jewish celebrities including Alex Edelman have also met with Jewish Michiganders.

Hecker said that several attendees came up to him after the Torres event and said they’d decided based on Torres’ comments to vote for Harris.

“[Undecided Jewish voters] want to make sure that they’re picking a candidate who is best for the safety and security of Israel,” Hecker said. “We all want safety and security for Israel and people bring different perspectives as to how to achieve that, but that’s the primary issue. I think on all the domestic issues … the overwhelming majority of Jews have the values of Vice President Harris.”

Torres emphasized on social media last week the Democrats’ interest in connecting with Jewish Michigan voters, responding to a critic of Israel who said that the Harris campaign shouldn’t have sent pro-Israel voices to the state given its significant Muslim and Arab-American population.

“There are pro-Israel Jewish voters in Michigan,” Torres said.  “As deeply as it might offend you, pro-Israel Jews are part of the Democratic coalition. Reaching to widely varied constituencies with widely varied messengers is what campaigns typically do.”

Hecker said that undecided Jewish voters also have a “major concern” about “the antisemitism of Donald Trump.”

The Harris campaign has held other meetings with both Jewish voters supporting Harris and with undecided voters, particularly in the Orthodox community, and distributed information to rabbis in the state. And it has been holding pro-Harris “Kamala(t) Shabbat” events for younger voters, inviting younger Jews to Shabbat dinner to talk about Harris and getting involved in the campaign.

The campaign also ran a two-page ad in the local Jewish newspaper with the names of more than 700 Jews supporting Harris and is targeting Jewish voters with door-knocking and phone banking efforts (with a particular focus on the significantly Jewish community of West Bloomfield).

Robert Schostak, a Republican Jewish Committee board member and former Michigan Republican Party chair, is helping to organize RJC’s ground-game efforts — including both TV advertisements and a canvassing effort — similar to those it’s pursuing in several other key swing states.

Speaking to JI in the Detroit suburbs last week, Schostak predicted that centrist and Democratic-leaning pro-Israel voters, Jewish and non-Jewish, would ultimately be the group to help deliver victory to Trump and Republican Senate candidate former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI).

Rogers rallied with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Jewish supporters and undecided voters in West Bloomfield at an RJC event last week, emphasizing his support for Israel and continuing to frame his opponent, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) as a key player in the Iran nuclear deal.

“When the RJC said, ‘We believe we could turn out more Jewish votes that are maybe on the fence, maybe traditionally are Democrats, maybe aren’t necessarily thrilled with Trump. Do you think we could be successful?’ The short answer to that was, ‘Yes, I think we can,’” Schostak recounted.

Schostak said he’s expecting some pro-Israel non-Jewish Democrats — liberal on social policy but more conservative on foreign policy — and other populations that have been supportive of the Jewish community to also cross the aisle, in addition to Jewish voters.

Schostak argued that Harris and her vice-presidential nominee, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have shown themselves to be unreliable on Israel through their work in office and rhetoric on the campaign trail.

“We know what Kamala has been doing in the Biden-Harris administration. We know what her vice president nominee is looking to accomplish by what he said, what his behaviors have been. as a Minnesota governor, we know what the things they’ve said on their campaign,” Schostak said.

In some cases, Schostak said that centrist Democrats have told him they’re planning to vote for Rogers while staying out of the presidential race, especially given Rogers’ expertise in foreign policy and intelligence.

Schostak said there’s another population of voters who were “traditionally lean-left, center-left, that had been looking for an excuse to vote for Trump, and they weren’t going to before Oct. 7, but they are now.”

And he also noted that there are significant conservative Christian Zionist populations in northern and western Michigan that care deeply about Israel, which he expects to vote Republican. Jewish populations in Michigan are generally concentrated elsewhere in the state.

Ezra Drissman, a longtime Jewish Republican from Oak Park, Mich., told JI at the RJC event with Rogers that he’s glad Republicans are making a strong play for the Jewish vote. 

“I want people to not take the Jewish vote for granted. I want them to not take the Muslim vote for granted. I want them to not take Black people’s vote for granted,” Drissman said. “I want to be wooed.”

Campaigning in Michigan, some Democrats seem to have played up their more hawkish credentials in the campaign’s final stretch.

Speaking at a rally in Michigan for Harris this week, former President Bill Clinton offered full-throated support for Israel.

“The people [in the areas attacked by Hamas] were the most pro-friendship with Palestine, the most pro-two-state solution of any of the Israeli community … and Hamas butchered them,” Clinton said. “What would you do if it was your family? And you hadn’t done anything but support the homeland for the Palestinians and, one night, they come for you and slaughter the people in your village.”

“Hamas did not care about a homeland for the Palestinians, they wanted to kill Israelis and make Israel uninhabitable,” Clinton continued. “Well, I got news for them. [Israel was] there first before their faith existed.”

And Slotkin declared in a recent debate, “I take a back seat to no one on the issue of Iran. I’m as hawkish as anyone.”

Hecker insisted that Harris is and has been “100% in support of a safe and secure Israel,” and that none of her positions or outreach to voters more critical of Israel, or her concern about civilians in Gaza, has been inconsistent with that.

CNN highlighted this weekend that Harris’ campaign has been running ads targeting Pennsylvania’s Jewish community playing up her support for Israel, while in Michigan, it’s targeting the Arab-American community with ads highlighting her concern about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“She is so clear as to her support for Israel, it’s unequivocal,” Hecker said. “That is totally consistent with caring about the Palestinian people — not those who support Hamas — but the Palestinian people.”

He brushed off incidents where Harris has appeared critical of Israel and its operations in Gaza.

“She has never, ever uttered a word close to saying this is a genocide,” Hecker insisted.