Israel’s political, diplomatic and military establishments indicated this week that they are ready to bring the war in Lebanon to a close and reach a diplomatic agreement, but the ability to enforce a cease-fire remains in doubt as drones and rockets continue to fall in northern Israel.

With Special Envoy Amos Hochstein and Special Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk arriving in Israel on Thursday to negotiate an end to the fighting in Lebanon and security arrangements that would allow over 60,000 Israelis to return to their homes in northern Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting this week with cabinet ministers and military top brass to discuss a possible diplomatic agreement.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of the security cabinet, said in a briefing on Wednesday that he believes the wars in Gaza and Lebanon will wind down to a much lower intensity by the end of 2024 or at worst early 2025; therefore he is not planning a “war budget” for 2025, a spokesman for the minister confirmed to Jewish Insider.

The assessment from the IDF Northern Command is that the army has neared the completion of its mission to destroy Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure near the border with Israel, with senior officers viewing this as the right time for Israel to start moving towards a diplomatic arrangement, according to Walla.  

Israel suggested to the U.S. that a cease-fire deal be based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, thus not requiring a new resolution, a government source told JI. 

The cease-fire was largely unenforced for the past 18 years, with Hezbollah stockpiling weapons near the border with Israel with the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon has been unable to hold Hezbollah, which is not mentioned in UNSCR 1701, to its terms.

Ensuring arms cannot be smuggled into Lebanon over the Syrian border or by air or sea is another requirement for Israel. Jerusalem has reached out to Moscow, according to Ynet, and Russia would play a role in the Syria part of the deal.

The deal under consideration would start with a cease-fire and a 60-day period in which Hezbollah would transfer its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, about 17 miles north of Israel, and 8,000 Lebanese Army troops would deploy along the border with Israel. 

The IDF would withdraw from the area over the course of the transition period, but Israel has asked that President Joe Biden provide a letter assuring the U.S. would support Israel if it needs to take military action to stop Hezbollah from violating the cease-fire agreement and rebuilding in southern Lebanon. 

Sarit Zehavi, the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, expressed concern to JI that Israel’s demands may not be enough to secure Israel’s north.

“There is no way we can return to Oct. 6 or that Hezbollah can be rehabilitated,” Zehavi, who lives nine kilometers (5.5 miles) from the border with Lebanon, said. “We have to create all the systems possible to prevent that, whether Israeli, international or both.”

Zehavi said that Hezbollah cannot continue to be treated as legitimate in Lebanon: “They can’t be a political party that is part of making decisions … In an ideal world, we need Hezbollah to be designated as a terrorist group in Lebanon and for us to deal with their sponsor, Iran. If that doesn’t happen, I have trouble seeing how there will be any progress.” 

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said it’s reasonable to base a cease-fire agreement on Resolution 1701, but he was skeptical that such a move would succeed.

“There are a lot of questions out there about the Lebanese Armed Forces and whether you would be able to enforce 1701,” he said. “Who are you signing an agreement with right now? Can the U.N. actually play a positive role? Can the LAF? These are massive questions that have yet to be answered.” 

“If [Netanyahu] is on the way to some incredible diplomatic process that leads to all of this, I would be thrilled, but I’ve watched this conflict long enough to know these things are not simple and not easily achieved … I find it very difficult to believe we’re on the precipice of calm,” he added.

As for the IDF’s assessment that it has nearly completed its mission, Zehavi said that while that is true, the directive it was given by the cabinet, to clear the villages near the border with Israel of Hezbollah weapons and fighters, is too narrow.

“If the IDF was given the mission to go up to the Litani, they would do it,” she said. “The question is when will they get the mission to stop the missiles being shot at us.”

Schanzer also expressed doubt that the war in Lebanon is drawing to a close.

“The IDF did exactly what was being asked of it, and it was the right thing to do, you need to clear out the south [of Lebanon] to make it feasible for residents of the north [of Israel] to return home … but when you talk about whether the war itself is winding down in the north, it seems harder to claim,” he said.

At the start of the war, Schanzer said, Hezbollah was “the most powerful terrorist organization on the planet,” but since then Israel has killed most of its leadership, neutralized the Radwan Force that was planning an Oct. 7-style attack on northern Israel and destroyed about 80% of its arsenal.

However, he added, “Hezbollah still has a lot of capabilities that can still be used,” such as 1,500 precision-guided missiles, able to strike strategic sites in Israel with a great degree of accuracy. Schanzer noted that there have not been any reports of Israel destroying those weapons.

“We have a lot of unanswered questions about the most advanced weapons in Hezbollah’s arsenal, the stuff that could do real damage to Israel,” Schanzer said.

While Hezbollah has been weakened by Israel, Zehavi said, “it’s clear that Iran decided not to abandon Hezbollah and is still supporting it.”  

Following Israel’s strike on Iran over the weekend that destroyed much of Tehran’s air defenses, the Islamic Republic may double down on using Hezbollah as its proxy against Israel, Schanzer speculated.

“Is there enough chaos in the ranks of Hezbollah to push for an end of the conflict when it’s still controlled by Iran and Iran is looking for other assets after being attacked by Israel the other night?” he asked.

That cease-fire talks are taking place when Hezbollah is not totally defeated – the terror group’s destruction is not part of Israel’s war aims in Lebanon, in contrast with Hamas in Gaza – is because of its Iranian sponsorship, Schanzer said.

“Israel probably understands they’ll never get rid of the long-range rockets that are north of the Litani River and will never be able to prevent Hezbollah from reorganizing north of the Litani,” he said. 

Schanzer called on the U.S. “to threaten the [Iranian] regime’s very existence” in order to end the war, but said that the Biden administration “has not used any leverage on Iran, so I don’t expect movement from Hezbollah.”

Zehavi pointed to the damage being caused by Hezbollah attacks on Israel, such as an Israeli killed by a rocket shot by Hezbollah and a drone strike on a bridge in Nahariya this week. She said that the schools in northern Israel towns that are not evacuated are still only partially open, because the 15-20 seconds people have to reach the safety of a bomb shelter if an air raid siren goes off poses a risk of casualties.

“Clearly there has to be a diplomatic arrangement and a significant achievement regarding rocket launchers and arms smuggling” into Lebanon, Zehavi said, adding that moving forward, Israel must “combine military and diplomatic moves.”

Schanzer said that too many questions remain for Israel’s leadership to “take a victory lap.”

“We can agree the IDF had significant achievements, but how do you translate that into a cease-fire? How do you get a more permanent arrangement that would bring about the end of conflict and allow people to return home? These are all things that seem many steps away,” he said.