Hamas named its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, as the head of its political bureau on Tuesday, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

The mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, who is believed to be living in Hamas’ massive tunnel system ever since, was released from Israeli prison in 2011 in a swap for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit and has been the head of Hamas’s Gaza operations since 2017. He is now the head of the entire terrorist organization, directing its war against Israel from Gaza and its international relations – including negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of the 115 hostages Hamas is holding in Gaza. 

IDF Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Sinwar’s promotion made little difference to the Israeli army.

“The change in his title won’t stop us from searching for him. He is spurring us to make an effort to find him and attack him, so he’s replaced again,” Halevi said. “This title, ‘political,’ does not exempt him from the fact that he is a murderer who was part of all the planning and execution of what happened on Oct. 7.”

Sinwar’s appointment came as a surprise, Michael Milshtein, the head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center in Tel Aviv University, told Jewish Insider: “Sinwar was very low on the list. I had conversations with colleagues in Gaza and the Gulf and they were all surprised.”

Sinwar was made Hamas’ leader due to his “accomplishments,” according to Joe Truzman, senior research analyst and an expert on Palestinian terror groups at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. In addition to being the man behind the Oct. 7 attacks, he organized the 2018 “March of Return” riots on the Gaza border to “extort Israel,” Truzman said, because they only subsided when Israel permitted Qatar to send millions of dollars into Gaza each month.

“Since being released from prison in the Gilad Shalit deal, Sinwar has ascended the ranks within Hamas, demonstrating both strategic acumen and operational effectiveness … Sinwar has undoubtedly put Hamas on the global map,” Truzman told JI.

Khaled Abu Toameh, an expert on Palestinian affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, said that rather than rewarding Sinwar, Hamas’ leadership abroad may be trying to distance itself from him, “by saying ‘you launched Oct. 7 on your own, you continue now.’ I see it as consolidating the risk.” 

Sinwar “despised” Haniyeh and Haniyeh’s predecessor, Khaled Mashaal, Abu Toameh told JI.

Sinwar and his allies “say ‘we are the ones in Gaza, we went to Israeli prison, you [Hamas leaders abroad] didn’t. We are paying the price … and you are abroad enjoying a good life,’” Abu Toameh said.

As such, Sinwar, his brother Mohammed Sinwar, a senior Hamas commander, and Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas’ military, who Israel killed last month, “completed a coup [they] have been waging to take over Hamas in recent years,” Abu Toameh said.

Sinwar was Iran’s favored candidate, as opposed to Mashaal, who many thought would take over for Haniyeh, having led the Hamas political bureau in the past. Mashaal had made statements in the past opposing Hamas’ dependence on Tehran.

Milshtein said many across the region believe that Iran put heavy pressure on Hamas to appoint Sinwar and vetoed Mashaal.

Truzman said that “Sinwar’s appreciation for Iran’s support is well-documented … With Sinwar at the helm, Iran can maintain and potentially enhance its influence over Hamas, mainly due to the assistance it has provided the group during the ongoing conflict.”

In addition, he said, Sinwar “has demonstrated his leadership abilities, but more importantly, Tehran seeks someone capable of guiding Hamas through the turmoil it has faced since October 7.”

Haniyeh was the leading Hamas figure in the U.S., Qatar and Egypt mediated negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of the 115 hostages Hamas is holding in Gaza, though Sinwar had the final say.

Beirut-based Hamas official Osama Hamdan told Turkish media on Wednesday that “Sinwar was not far from the negotiation process,” and there will be continuity in the talks. He accused Israel and the U.S. of being “insincere” in the negotiations.

Sinwar, Hamdan said, “has a high degree of flexibility in managing public affairs and preserves the rights of the Palestinian people.” 

Milshtein said that, in light of Hamdan’s comments, “I don’t think it means that with Sinwar at the head of the political bureau there can’t be a deal.”

“Haniyeh was a symbol. He didn’t decide about the war in Gaza or about a deal. Sinwar’s title doesn’t matter; things will remain the same,” Milshtein said. 

Truzman said that “Sinwar may feel empowered to reject any cease-fire until Israel meets his demands,” but emphasized that even before Haniyeh’s death, “it was Sinwar who held the decisive vote. This dynamic has not shifted.”

But the fact that Sinwar is in Gaza and living in underground tunnels carries risks for Hamas and could limit his abilities as political leader.

Unlike Haniyeh, Sinwar will not be able to jet from a luxury suite to meet with foreign ministers, presidents and ayatollahs in Moscow, Ankara and Tehran to shore up international support for Hamas and work on getting funds and weapons to Gaza and the West Bank.

While other Hamas officials could take over the travel, Abu Toameh said they “have been deemed irrelevant. If Sinwar is the head of the politburo, then what is the point of talking to the guys outside? And good luck talking to Sinwar in the tunnels.” 

Abu Toameh also questioned Sinwar’s ability to manage Hamas’ finances, another responsibility in the political leader’s purview, while ensconced underground.

“There are many unanswered questions about how things will work,” he said.

Sinwar’s inability to travel could mean that Hamas may try to negotiate “a cease-fire agreement that includes a provision allowing Sinwar to exit Gaza and reside abroad,” Truzman noted. “Such a change could enable him to fulfill his responsibilities as Hamas’ overall leader and build on his predecessor’s achievements.”

“Whether Israel would consider such a proposal remains an open question,” he added.

Milshtein said there is a theory among some analysts that Qatar wanted Sinwar to be named political bureau leader to draw him out of Gaza and bring about an exile that would end the war.

Milshtein called this speculation “an interesting thesis, but I don’t think that Sinwar would agree. He didn’t fight to this point in order to live in the Four Seasons in Doha. He’s not the type … And Israel won’t let it happen; we want his head.”

Qatar benefits from this dynamic even if Sinwar remains in Gaza, Abu Toameh explained, as they may face less pressure to deport the Hamas leaders who remain in Doha if the center of power has moved entirely to Gaza.

IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told Al Arabiya after Sinwar’s promotion that “there’s only one place we are designating for Yahya Sinwar, and that’s right next to Mohammed Deif” — whom Israel killed — “and all the other terrorists who are responsible for October 7. It’s the only place we are preparing and designating for him.” 

As such, Truzman called Sinwar’s appointment a “misstep,” pointing out that his “tenure may be fleeting. The Israeli military and intelligence services are diligently pursuing him, and it is unlikely they will relent until he is apprehended. Time could be against him, limiting his ability to achieve any strategic objectives for Hamas.”

Appointing a man nicknamed “the butcher of Khan Younis” as Hamas’ overall head could also hurt the organization’s alliances with left-wing activists around the world and hurt its reputation as “freedom fighters,” Truzman said. “The organization might be betting that the international sympathy it garnered following the events of Oct. 7 – particularly from specific Western societal sectors — will overshadow Sinwar’s controversial past.”

The risks and obstacles in having Sinwar serve as head of the political bureau indicate that the decision is out of character for Hamas, Milshtein said.

“Hamas is an organization that considers its steps carefully. Something seems strange when they’re taking such an unserious step. They announced the decision was made by consensus, but I’m not sure. Decision-making in Hamas could have been knocked off balance by all the assassinations,” he said.