Given the GOP’s sturdy 53-seat majority in the Senate, combined with the increasing rarity of split-ticket voters, the Republican Party’s hold on the upper chamber looked nearly guaranteed, with a map featuring very few true swing-state pickup opportunities for the Democrats.

Indeed, the unlikely pathway for Democrats to win back control of the Senate in 2026 runs through states that have been reliably Republican in recent years — Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Florida and Alaska. To win back a majority, the party would need to win at least two of these red-state races, reversing the yearslong Democratic drought in many of these states — along with winning GOP-held seats in battleground Maine and North Carolina, which is far from assured.

But given the dominant Democratic outcomes from the off-year elections, there’s been renewed attention to the possibility of some red-state upsets in 2026. Already, political strategists from both parties are mulling over which seats are the most likely to get competitive, in preparation for an unpredictable midterm election.

On paper, Ohio looks like it’s the best opportunity for Democrats to play offense. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a populist, battle-tested Democrat won three statewide elections in Ohio even as the state trended in a more conservative direction. He eventually lost in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) by five points, but ran well ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris’ double-digit defeat in the state.

With the national environment tilting back in the Democrats’ favor, Brown is seeking a comeback against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Ohio’s former lieutenant governor. A recently released September poll of the race conducted by the respected Democratic firm Hart Research found Brown narrowly ahead over Husted, 48-45%. Among independents, Brown held a substantial 25-point lead (56-31%).

Of all the five “reach” states for Democrats, Ohio was the closest in the presidential race, with President Donald Trump winning by 11 points. That should make it the best opportunity for Democrats to win a third seat — even as it underscores how many Trump voters Democrats will need to convert in order to win.

Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) sudden retirement is turning Iowa into a possible opportunity for Democrats. The state was once reliably competitive, but has been a solidly Republican state in the age of Trump. But the state’s farming economy has taken a hit, in part because of the aftereffects from the president’s tariffs. That’s given Democrats a narrow opportunity to capitalize on growing voter dissatisfaction, especially with an open Senate seat in play.

Republicans have coalesced behind Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA), a well-liked lawmaker and former TV anchor from the northeastern corner of the state. Democrats, meanwhile, are dealing with a crowded primary, with Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek appearing to be the party favorite. The contested primary could push the eventual nominee to the left, which would be a major handicap in a state that’s now reliably conservative.

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, making the Lone Star State an unlikely pickup opportunity. Democrats’ hopes center on scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton winning the GOP nomination over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), and that Democrats nominate a moderate candidate who can win back the Hispanic voters who swung towards the Republicans in the last election. 

Complicating the Democrats’ path: They’re dealing with a competitive primary themselves between former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost his Senate race in 2024, and state Rep. James Talarico, who has won attention for speaking to conservative audiences about his Christian faith.

If there’s a true sleeper race on the board, it’s in Alaska, a state whose Republican voting record belies its independent nature. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) doesn’t have any obvious vulnerabilities, but respected Alaska pollster Ivan Moore found former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leading Sullivan, 48-46%, in his October survey. But Peltola, who held the state’s at-large House seat from 2022-2024, is probably the only Democrat with the political standing who could put the Senate seat in play.

Finally, Florida used to be a perennial swing state but it’s gotten so Republican in recent years that Democrats don’t even look to be seriously challenging appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL). In a sign of how times have changed: Moody’s leading Democratic challenger appears to be a former Brevard County School Board member without much statewide name recognition.

The executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations’ Ohio branch moderated an online event last week featuring a Hamas official designated as a terrorist by the Treasury Department, as well as other Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad members.

The Beirut-based think tank Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultations hosted an event in Arabic last week titled “Palestinians Abroad and Regional International Strategic Transformations in Light of Operation Al-Aksa Flood,” using Hamas’ name for its Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel.

Among the speakers at the web conference was Majed al-Zeer, who was designated by the Treasury Department in October 2024 as “the senior Hamas representative in Germany, who is also one of the senior Hamas members in Europe and has played a central role in the terrorist group’s European fundraising.” 

Al-Zeer said that “the resistance” is key to maintaining the momentum of a “strategic shift” in how Europe and the world views the Palestinian issue.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad financier Sami al-Arian, a former University of South Florida computer science professor who was deported from the U.S. in 2015 due to his ties to the terrorist group, said on the same panel as Al-Zeer that “the overall Palestinian situation is much better strategically than it was before the flood [Oct. 7].”

CAIR-Ohio Director Khalid Turaani moderated one panel with commentary provided by Ziad el-Aloul, who is active in several Hamas-affiliated organizations in Europe, including the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad, which was designated a terrorist group by Israel in 2021 for its work on behalf of Hamas. More recently, PCPA was found to be involved in facilitating the Global Sumud Flotilla that attempted to sail to Gaza with climate activist Greta Thunberg on board.

Another speaker in the Turaani-led panel expressed hope that the Turkish army would deploy in Gaza and fight the IDF.

The CAIR-Ohio director’s participation in a conference with senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad figures came two months after Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) called for an IRS investigation into the organization and the revocation of its 501(c)(3) nonprofit status, citing alleged “ties to terrorist organizations like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.”

CAIR did not respond to a request for comment. 

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is asking the presidents of the largest colleges and universities in Ohio to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism and ensure that their respective institutions have plans in place to combat campus antisemitism during the upcoming school year, Jewish Insider has learned.

Moreno sent letters on Tuesday to the presidents of The Ohio State University, Miami University, Kent State University, Cleveland State University, Youngstown State University, the University of Cincinnati, Central State University, the University of Toledo, Bowling Green State University, Akron University, Ohio University, Wright State University, Northeast Ohio Medical University and Shawnee State University. 

In the letters, the Ohio senator requested information on how each school was responding to “the unacceptable and disgusting rise in antisemitism” and the ways each plans to “protect students’ safety while on campus from antisemitism and/or other religiously motivated crimes.”

Moreno also urged the schools to adopt the IHRA definition, which he argued “provides clarity on what constitutes antisemitism and can serve as a tool on campus to help combat hate crimes and foster a safer environment for Jewish students.”

“I want to make sure that university leaders are doing all they can to ensure students are free not only to learn on college campuses but also to feel safe while doing so, regardless of their religion,” Moreno wrote.

Moreno praised the Trump administration’s efforts to combat antisemitism in the letters, writing that the White House was “taking strong and necessary action” on the matter.

“Jewish Americans are under attack in this country. Americans have witnessed the manifestation of rampant antisemitism on college campuses all over the country,” Moreno wrote. “Horrifyingly, hate crimes and domestic terrorism have plagued the Jewish community. Recently, in this country, Jewish Americans have been murdered in cold blood and burned alive. These attacks are reminiscent of 1939. It is 2025 – the violence against Jews must stop.”

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is set to make a bid to return to the Senate in 2026, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. 

Brown, who lost his 2024 reelection race by four points to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), will challenge Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who was appointed earlier this year to fill Vice President JD Vance’s seat. President Donald Trump carried the state by more than 11 points in 2024.

The progressive Brown remained relatively popular in the state even as it has trended increasingly red in recent years, and maintained strong ties with the state’s large Jewish community. He had also been floated as a potential gubernatorial candidate in 2026, but was strongly courted by Senate Democrats to make a comeback bid.

In late 2024, Brown voted against Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) first efforts to block certain U.S. arms transfers to Israel.

“Senator Brown strongly believes that Israel has a clear and undeniable right to defend itself against Hamas’ brutal terrorism and voted to send military aid to Israel, along with much-needed humanitarian aid to Gaza,” a Brown spokesperson said prior to the vote. “Ultimately, Senator Brown believes that Israel and Hamas must agree to a ceasefire that ends the war, frees the hostages, and delivers desperately needed humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people.”

Numerous Democrats have since shifted their position on the issue, citing the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza.

In 2022, Brown said that he believed that support for Israel was a majority position in both parties, and that those who opposed the Jewish state were a small group of “outliers,” rejecting the notion that “progressive values” were incompatible with support for Israel.

The former Ohio senator, then the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, took a relatively hawkish position on Iran last year, pressing the administration, after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, terror attacks, to re-freeze Iranian funds previously released under a deal to free Americans held hostage in Iran.

Brown also called on the Biden administration, in early 2024, to re-impose a Foreign Terrorist Organization designation on the Houthis.

Husted has generally been seen as a moderate and has maintained a pro-Israel record in office, opposing efforts to block weapons transfers to Israel, joining with nearly all other Senate Republicans in demanding full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program, supporting American and Israeli strikes on Iran and backing legislation to increase sanctions on Iran.

Speaking at a Senate hearing on campus antisemitism, Husted said that the disruptions in the days after the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attacks appeared coordinated.

Josh Mandel, a Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, is holding a high-profile virtual fundraising event on Monday alongside several pro-Israel heavyweights including former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, billed as a “special guest” on the invitation for the May 10 event. 

Elan Carr, the Trump administration’s special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, who is one of 15 hosts, shared the invite in a Wednesday morning tweet. “Amb. Friedman and I, with leaders from across the country, are proud to support front-running US Senate candidate Josh Mandel,” Carr wrote. “48th Treasurer of Ohio, US Marine, Iraq War veteran, and my good friend, Josh is a true patriot and great leader for our country.”

Other hosts include Sandy Perl, a partner at Kirkland & Ellis LLP in Chicago; Jon Diamond, president of Safe Auto Insurance in Columbus; former AIPAC President Howard Friedman; Michael Tuchin, a partner at KTBS Law LLP in Los Angeles; author and businessman Seth “Yossi” Siegel; and Phil Rosen, a partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP in New York. 

The fundraiser suggests that Mandel is likely to receive some significant support from prominent members of the pro-Israel community as he struggles to gain traction in the crowded field of candidates vying to succeed outgoing moderate Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH). Former GOP state party chair Jane Timken, tech executive Bernie Moreno and businessman Mike Gibbons have entered the race in recent months, and more are expected to join as election season heats up.

“Josh is a proud American, Marine, Jew and Zionist,” Scott Guthrie, a spokesman for Mandel, told Jewish Insider on Wednesday when asked about the upcoming benefit. “He is grateful to have the support of so many American patriots who have fought for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship. He also feels blessed to have evangelical Christian Zionists across Ohio supporting his campaign for U.S. Senate.”

Still, Mandel appears to have had some trouble courting contributors, despite early favorable polling from the conservative Club for Growth, which endorsed him. Recent filings from the Federal Election Commission revealed that Mandel’s campaign lost money in the first quarter of the year. In April, sources told Axios, Mandel crashed a Palm Beach donor retreat hosted by the Republican National Committee, but was escorted from the event because his name was not on the invitation list.

Mandel has emerged as a polarizing figure as he seeks to channel former President Donald Trump, who remains popular among Republican voters in Ohio and has yet to make an endorsement in the race. In March, Mandel’s Twitter account was briefly suspended after he posted an inflammatory poll asking whether “Muslim Terrorists” or “Mexican Gangbangers” would be “more likely to commit crimes.”

The tweet drew widespread condemnation, including from a Jewish community member in Columbus who, in a Cleveland.com guest column, castigated Mandel’s “reprehensible rhetoric” as “no different than the way people used to talk about Jews.”

Recently, Mandel has somewhat softened his rhetoric, presenting himself as a more traditionally conservative man of faith in his first TV ad, released at the end of March during Passover.

“This time of year we celebrate that God is always in control,” Mandel said in the 30-second spot over soft piano accompaniment. “I’m Josh Mandel, and I personally know that’s true. You see, my grandma was saved from the Nazis by a network of courageous Christians who risked their lives to save hers. Without their faith, I’m not here today.”

“I’m Josh Mandel and I approve this message, because in dark times like this past year, faith is our brightest light,” he concluded. 

Mandel ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in 2012. He mounted a second challenge in 2018 but withdrew from the race. From 2011 to 2019, he served as Ohio’s state treasurer, overseeing record investments in Israeli bonds.

In a February interview with JI, shortly after he announced his candidacy, Mandel emphasized a deep personal connection with the Jewish state. 

“I’m raising my three kids to be proud Americans, proud Jews and proud Zionists,” he said, adding: “I’m also proud to have many cousins who live throughout Judea and Samaria, and I believe that Jews have the biblical right to live, build and prosper in every corner of Judea, Samaria and the entirety of Israel.”

Former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel has long had his eye on the U.S. Senate. The 43-year-old Republican made his first bid for the upper chamber in 2012 in a failed challenge against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). The following cycle, six years later, Mandel tried again but withdrew from the race citing family health concerns.

Last week, Mandel made clear that he was going for the hat trick when he entered the open-seat race to succeed Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who is retiring at the end of his term in 2022. Though Mandel, a Marine veteran, was the first to declare his candidacy in the Republican primary, the race is expected to be a crowded one. Several other Republicans, including Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) and former Ohio Republican Party chairwoman Jane Timken, are considering bids.

“Republicans are going to have one of the messiest primaries we’ve ever seen,” said Justin Barasky, a partner at the Democratic media consulting firm Left Hook Strategy who worked as a campaign manager on Brown’s 2018 reelection bid. “There’ll be an opportunity for Democrats to prove themselves as a reasonable alternative.”

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) is expected to enter the race, while Amy Acton, Ohio’s former state health director, is currently exploring a bid. But Mandel insists that he is in a strong position as he enters the race with $4.3 million left over in his campaign account. “I’m confident that we will win the primary and go on to beat Tim Ryan, Amy Acton or whoever the Democrats put up in the general election,” he said. 

Mandel, who claims that he entered the race in part because he believes the recent impeachment trial was “unconstitutional,” is positioning himself as a fervent Trump supporter. He avoids acknowledging that the former president lost the election and hopes he will run again in 2024. In a recent interview with Jewish Insider, Mandel discussed his campaign. Edited excerpts follow.

Jewish Insider: Why are you running?

Josh Mandel: I think we need a new generation of conservative leaders in Ohio and in Washington. Unfortunately, there is this cabal of Democrats and Republicans who sound the same, stand for nothing and are more interested in getting invited to cocktail parties than they are in defending the Constitution. And I believe that we need strong America-first senators who are willing to fight for the ideals of economic freedom, individual liberty and constitutional values.

JI: That’s a Trump message. Do you think it will carry enough weight in Ohio given that Trump is no longer in power?

Mandel: I do. You know, Ohio is Trump country.

Then-Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, center, and state Rep. Kevin Boyce, right, hold a news conference in Columbus, Ohio in 2015. (Andrew Welsh-Huggins/AP)

JI: When you say you’re running to help define the party’s future, are you envisioning that Trump will run again in 2024?

Mandel: I hope he does. I hope he runs for reelection in 2024 — pardon me, I hope he runs for president in 2024. And once again, I’ll be a full-throated supporter behind his candidacy. In Ohio in 2016, I was the first statewide official to support Trump. Late in the fall of 2016, after the Access Hollywood tapes came out and all these Republicans were jumping ship, I stuck with him. And in the 2020 reelection, I was part of a small group called the Trump 500, which is a small group of people around the country who raised over $500,000 for his reelection. I’ve been a strong Trump supporter. I think what he’s done for America, and what he’s done for Israel, is unrivaled, and I’m proud to call him my president.

JI: Have you spoken to him about your candidacy?

Mandel: No.

JI: Do you believe that Trump lost the election?

Mandel: Listen, I believe that there definitely was fraud in this election, just like there is in every election. And if I were a United States senator, I would have voted with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) in delaying the certification of the election to give time for an investigation to ensue. As a Marine Corps veteran who raised his right hand and took an oath to defend the Constitution, I feel like I was also taking an oath to defend the vote of every individual American because that vote and that voice of each citizen is precious, and it’s unique, and it must be protected. And so whether voter fraud occurs to the tune of millions of people, thousands of people or a handful of people, it’s still too much. 

One of the things that baffles me is why, you know, the radical liberals oppose photo ID for voting. I mean, if you need a photo ID to get into the Democratic National Convention, and you need a photo ID to do a tour of the White House, why do you not need a photo ID to go vote? In my mind, photo ID should be one of the main priorities in protecting the people’s vote.

JI: What are your thoughts on Trump’s response to losing the election in the lead-up to the Capitol siege on January 6?

Mandel: I think President Trump told the American citizens to march peacefully. And I think ‘peacefully’ is a very clear word that every American understands. The events of January 6 are not President Trump’s fault. It’s the fault of people who chose to break the law. But what President Trump said was very clear — march peacefully — and I think everyone understands what the word peacefully means.

JI: What do you make of Rob Portman’s legacy?

Mandel: Rob is a friend and a statesman — and, you know, I was shocked to hear that he was retiring.

JI: Who in the Senate do you feel you have an affinity for?

Mandel: Ted Cruz. Mike Lee. Marco Rubio. Those are some. 

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, accompanied by Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel, tours a water hydraulics plant in Salem, Ohio, in 2015. (Scott R. Galvin/AP)

JI: Amy Acton, who is being eyed as a potential Democratic candidate in the Ohio Senate race, faced some pretty vile antisemitic threats before she resigned from her position as Ohio’s health director last June. Do you have any comment on that?

Mandel: I didn’t follow those threats specifically, so I can’t speak to them. But I can tell you that I think Amy Acton did a horrible job as the state’s health director. Her numbers and predictions were completely wrong, and she’s the reason why many families in Ohio are facing economic ruin. Her dead-wrong predictions and her big hand of government invading the lives of small business owners and schools has, unfortunately, waged economic ruin on families and severely harmed the education of kids. I strongly and fundamentally disagree with Amy Acton’s shutdowns of family-owned small businesses, family-owned restaurants and schools throughout Ohio.

JI: Let’s pivot to foreign policy for a minute. Are you worried that Biden will reenter the Iran nuclear deal?

Mandel: Very worried. As a United States senator, I would combat every attempt by the Biden administration to empower and enrich Iran. I think that will forever be a stain on the Obama administration. I mean, the Obama Iran deal was horrible for America, horrible for Israel, and dangerous for anyone who believes in peace and freedom.

JI: On fundraising, are you confident that you’ll be able to pull in as much money as you were able to previously?

Mandel: Listen, I’m confident we’ll be successful in raising money, but this campaign is not going to be about money. This campaign is going to be one of the grassroots. We have an army of Trump activists and conservative warriors around the state who are backing my candidacy, and that will help propel us to victory. 

JI: Anything you’d like to add?

Mandel: I guess I would add this: I’m raising my three kids to be proud Americans, proud Jews and proud Zionists. And I am very grateful for the support of evangelical Christians, Jews and others around the state and country who’ve been supporting me and my leadership advancing the U.S.-Israel relationship. One other thing I would say: I’m also proud to have many cousins who live throughout Judea and Samaria, and I believe that Jews have the biblical right to live, build and prosper in every corner of Judea, Samaria and the entirety of Israel.