Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has emerged as the front-runner in the contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), with national Republicans swiftly coalescing around her bid for the GOP nomination as they look to avoid a messy primary battle.

Hinson, a politically tested lawmaker who has long been viewed as a potential successor to Ernst, launched her Senate campaign within hours of Ernst’s announcement last Tuesday that she would not seek a third term. 

Hinson, in her candidate announcement, said that she would be President Donald Trump’s “strongest ally” in the Senate and would work to “deliver the America First agenda.” She also praised Ernst for her military service and time in public office, saying that, “Our country and state are better off because of Joni’s selfless service.”

Hinson, a prolific fundraiser who entered the race with a $2.8 million war chest, began racking up endorsements shortly after her campaign launch. Trump endorsed Hinson on Friday, as did Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

Trump described Hinson as “a wonderful person” whom he knows “well,” and praised her devotion to her family before touting her commitment to “our incredible Iowa workers.”

“She is working hard to Create Jobs, Cut Taxes, Promote Products and Services MADE IN AMERICA by our incredible Iowa Workers, Support our Great Farmers and American Agriculture, Champion Innovation, Continue to Help Secure our now very Secure Southern Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote of Hinson on his Truth Social platform.

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told JI. 

Ernst and Hinson are close professionally and personally; in addition to being friends, the two have long been aligned on foreign and domestic policy and worked together on scores of bicameral legislative efforts. 

Both lawmakers have been repeatedly endorsed by AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition, though neither organizations have officially gotten behind Hinson’s Senate bid yet. While Ernst hasn’t endorsed in the race either, Hinson is the candidate she is most aligned with ideologically. 

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told Jewish Insider. 

“On issues of concern to Jewish Americans, Ashley Hinson has been an absolute stalwart,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI.

Markstein described Hinson as “an incredibly strong voice in Israel’s defense,” citing her “calling Hamas’ terror attack ‘evil,’ and affirming Israel’s right to defend itself immediately” after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel as examples. He also noted that she has “consistently voted for vital military aid to Israel and Iron Dome defense systems,” and pointed to her cosponsoring legislation “to pressure the Biden administration to deliver critical aid that they were holding up as the Jewish state was fighting a seven-front war.” 

“She has stood strongly against the Iranian regime by supporting measures to reinstitute maximum pressure and reimpose crippling sanctions. Ashley Hinson also has a very strong record on combating antisemitism. Notably, unlike some on the neo-isolationist far right, when Ashley Hinson says, ‘America First,’ for her, and for the RJC, that means standing strongly with our allies, like Israel, peace through strength, using decisive military action when necessary and rejecting forever wars,” Markstein said.

The swift action on Hinson’s part in launching her campaign and locking down major endorsements has propelled her campaign to front-runner status in the race, and a smooth primary contest could benefit what are already strong general election chances for Republicans in the Hawkeye State. 

“Ashley’s been pretty good on the Trump record,” Kochel said. “I think things are going to consolidate pretty quickly around her.”

“She is definitely going to be the leading candidate in the Republican primary, and she’s going to be a very tough candidate in the general election as well,” he told JI. 

Thus far in the primary, Hinson is facing Jim Carlin, a Republican former state senator who initially entered the contest to challenge Ernst from the right after winning 27% of the vote against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in a 2022 primary, and Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host who is a sharp critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Smith has espoused virulently anti-Israel beliefs on social media, posting in March of this year on X that Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and claiming in a post last May that Jewish people suffer from a “Jewish victim complex.”

Hinson began her career in local television as a broadcast journalist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and went on to win two Midwest regional Emmy Awards and become a health reporting fellow for the Radio Television Digital News Association. She entered politics in 2016, when she won a competitive seat in the Iowa state House of Representatives representing the purple Cedar Rapids area by a two-to-one margin. 

Hinson was elected to the House in 2020 after defeating former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, a Democrat who flipped Iowa’s 1st Congressional District blue in 2018, by more than two points. 

The other rumored candidate looking at the race is U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, Trump’s former acting attorney general during his first term who lost to Ernst in the GOP primary for her Senate seat in 2014. But with Trump and leading Republicans rallying behind Hinson, the prospects of Whitaker running has dimmed. 

The Democratic side of the aisle has a crowded field of candidates competing for the party’s nomination, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Jackie Norris, chairwoman of the Des Moines Public Schools board. 

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI. “Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership.”

Democrats have expressed an interest in contesting the open Senate seat in Iowa, a now reliably Republican state that was a battleground before Trump’s political ascendance. 

The party has some renewed confidence in their political standing in the state, after Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a special election last month. The state currently has one state elected official that’s a Democrat: State Auditor Rob Sand. 

Whether national Democrats will allocate resources to the Hawkeye State remains to be determined, but winning statewide as a Democrat in deep red Iowa will be a difficult challenge. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, when former Sen. Tom Harkin handily won a fifth term, prompting Republicans to dismiss the notion that this race will be competitive.

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Markstein told JI. 

“Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership. This, and more, illustrates that she’s focused, organized, and has an excellent team around her, all of which is needed to win,” he continued.

The NRSC sent a memo to donors last week expressing confidence that Democrats would face an uphill slog in Iowa, and touted Hinson as a “formidable contender” who “would be  exceedingly difficult for any Democrat to challenge.”

A source familiar with how the NRSC is viewing the contest told JI that, “Democrats are trying really hard to say that Iowa is in play and that it is a competitive race. That’s just not electorally where we view it.” 

“It’s also just not ultimately what the field on their side signals. They have a very messy, competitive primary right now. It does not appear that [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer is going to be able to clear the field. That is obviously a direct contrast to what we’re seeing so far on our side,” the source said, noting the growing support for Hinson on the GOP side of the aisle. 

Kochel noted that, “Iowa historically was a swing state. [Former President Barack] Obama won it twice and Trump’s won it three times, but certainly the registration advantage that Republicans have has been growing. As the electorate has changed in the last 10 years, more non-college [educated], white, working-class voters are becoming more and more Republican. We’ve got a lot of those in Iowa.”

“Demographically, Iowa is kind of getting away from the Democrats a little bit,” he continued, predicting, “We’ll see this race settle into a pretty familiar framework.”