While it is still unclear whether an Israeli airstrike on Saturday succeeded in killing Mohammed Deif, the long-pursued head commander of Hamas’ military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, and many questions remain about how the death of the high-ranking official might impact the terror group’s future and its nine-month-old war with Israel, one thing is certain: If Deif is actually dead, someone else will soon take his place.

“I always describe the DNA of Hamas as being like a lizard, when you cut off its tail, it just grows another one,” Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University and a senior analyst at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University, told Jewish Insider in an interview on Tuesday.

Milshtein, a former colonel who served as an adviser on Palestinian Affairs in COGAT, the Israeli military body that coordinates with the Palestinian territories, and as head of the Palestinian affairs department in Israel’s military intelligence, said that Israelis have a “short collective memory,” when it comes to the assassinations of Hamas’ leaders.

“We killed the founder of Hamas, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004, and then we killed the biggest general Hamas has ever had, Ahmed Jabari, in 2012, and it caused very severe damage to Hamas, but they managed to recover because that is their basic DNA,” he said.

“Of course, anyone who replaces Deif will not have the same experience as him and will be less qualified, but that’s OK, because whoever it is will be devoted and will learn, and Hamas will recover,” continued Milshtein, describing discussions he has held in recent days with some of Israel’s top military brass who claimed the latest assassination attempt, which if successful has eliminated an enemy who has eluded at least six previous attempts, would likely spell the end of Hamas.

“I told them, you know Hamas’ history, they will always recover because they have a strong ideology,” he said. “It might not be easy for them without him [Deif] and maybe they will not be as effective as they were before but don’t mix wishful thinking and reality.”

Milshtein said that if Deif was killed in the strike, which the Israeli military confirmed took out another top Hamas commander, Rafa’a Salameh, head of the group’s Khan Younis battalion, “then it is very bad for them, but I’m also quite sure that they’ve already started to think or even choose his replacement and whoever that is will then start to rebuild the organizational structure and the frame of command in order to address the vacuum caused by Deif’s death.”

So, who out of Hamas remaining military leaders could step into the shoes of the mythical and elusive commander?  

Lt. Col. (res) Shaul Bartal, a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, pointed to two key Hamas figures who could vie to become the next head of Hamas’ military wing.

“The most obvious person is Mohammed Sinwar,” Bartal told JI, referring to the younger brother of Hamas’ notorious leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar.

Known for brutal and violent actions against his own people, the younger Sinwar, 49, is already a prominent figure in the Palestinian enclave, heading the group’s southern command, which still has an estimated 7,000 fighters.  

Mohammad Sinwar joined Hamas’ military wing in the early 1990s but was soon arrested by Israel and spent several years in jail for terror offenses. Upon his release, he upped his militaristic activities with Hamas, taking part in several deadly attacks against Israeli in the mid-1990s, before becoming commander of the terror group’s Khan Younis Brigade in 2005. 

Another name touted by Bartal is the lesser-known Izz ad-Din Hadad, head of the group’s now largely dispersed central Gaza command, which includes highly populated areas in the Strip such as Gaza City and Jabalia.

“He is also a top candidate, and his ranking will definitely be upgraded because of the other commanders that Israel has killed so far,” said Bartal.

Another shadowy figure that could also be considered to replace Deif is Raed Sa’ad, the head of Hamas’ operations division in Gaza City, whom Israel reportedly attempted to assassinate last month in an airstrike but is still unable to confirm whether he survived.

Since Oct. 7, when thousands of terrorists from Hamas’ elite Nukhba unit infiltrated southern Israel, murdering more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking another 240 hostage, the IDF has sought to hunt down those it holds responsible for the unprecedented attacks.

According to the latest data released on Tuesday by the army, some 14,000 terrorists from Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza have been killed or apprehended since the start of the war. That includes six brigade commanders, around 20 battalion commanders and approximately 150 company commanders, the army said.

With only a handful of high-level commanders dead, the successful assassination of Deif, who has overseen Hamas’ entire military operation since 2002, would be a significant blow to the terror group.

Ghaith Al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that Deif would be very hard to replace and that it would likely be a while before Hamas named a successor.

“He has a legendary status in Hamas because he survived all the previous assassination attempts,” noted Al-Omari, adding that the group would also struggle to find a replacement because the person who had been groomed to eventually take over from Deif – Marwan Issa – was killed by Israel in March.

“Now there is no one obvious or well-equipped to take over,” he said. “And when you have such a loss in the middle of a war, it creates a major disruption.”

Al-Omari also said that if Deif is dead, then it could impact Hamas politically because the top commander is a big backer of Yahya Sinwar and ensures the full support of the al-Qassam Brigades.

Bartal also said that, in terms of stature, Deif is “not like any of the others” assassinated in recent years. 

“Mohammed Deif is one of the founders of the al-Qassam Brigades, he has a lot of experience, he knows everything about the tunnels, he knows everything about Hamas’ rockets’ ability, and he is the one responsible for the military dialogue with Iran,” he pointed out, emphasizing, “Mohammed Deif is something else, and if he is dead, then it is a very, very big loss for Hamas.”

Hamas officials continue to maintain that their top commander is “fine” and still in control of its fighting force and, according to Milshtein, it might be a while before the group offers proof of life or an acknowledgement of the loss.

“Deif is very, very important,” said Milshtein, pointing out that he is the person responsible for turning Hamas “from a guerilla unit or terror organization into a quasi-army or even a conventional army, with the Oct. 7 offensive being a very clear statement of Hamas’ military capacity.”

However, he added that for “organizations like Islamic Jihad, Hamas and Hezbollah, the ideology is much stronger than any individual person or any figure that leads them.”

“For the past 50 years Israel has been assassinating key figures in [Islamist terror] groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as Hezbollah, and every time there is a feeling that it is a turning point and that they will not be able to recover from this assassination,” said Milshtein. “But there is never an internal vacuum for very long in these organizations.”