Reports that the IDF withdrew one of its top commando divisions from the Gaza Strip on Sunday sent shockwaves through some parts of Israeli society, which viewed the pullback as a capitulation to U.S. diplomatic pressure on Israel to start winding down the six-month-old war.

Others, particularly those in the military and defense establishment, insisted, however, that the move is purely tactical, with the army planning to fight Hamas in a more strategic way using intelligence and smaller, specialized units. Israel’s leaders from both the political and military spheres have also asserted that their plans to tackle and eliminate the terror group’s remaining six battalions – said to be in central and southern Gaza – will most definitely go ahead.

The conflicting analysis of this clear shift in Israel’s military strategy – vastly cutting back on the number of boots on the ground before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vowed “total victory” has been achieved – comes amid reports on Monday from Cairo of progress in mediated talks for a cease-fire and a hostage release.

They also come after a tense phone call last Thursday between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden, the latter of whom reportedly put pressure on the Israeli leader to increase the amount of humanitarian aid entering Gaza, open up more land crossings into the Strip and allow Israeli mediators more leeway in cease-fire negotiations.

Eyal Pinko, a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University near Tel Aviv, told Jewish Insider on Monday that the cutting back of troops inside an active combat zone was “unexpected” and “not a reasonable war principle.”

“It doesn’t make sense from a tactical, strategic or operational point of view,” Pinko, a retired Israeli navy commander who also served in the country’s intelligence agency for more than 30 years, said. He put the move down to international pressure. 

“Israel is really feeling the pressure from Biden,” Pinko said, adding, however, that “it cannot not allow itself to do something in Rafah.”

“All the senior [Hamas] officers are there and probably most of the hostages, both dead and alive,” Pinko said of Gaza’s southernmost city, where some 1.4 million Gazans displaced by months of intense fighting are also sheltering, further complicating any plans for a military operation.  

“The only way to bring some kind of victory from the Israeli perspective is to go into Rafah, but after six months of war maybe the IDF really does need to restore its troops,” he said.  

In an analysis on Monday, Times of Israel Editor-in-Chief David Horovitz pointed out how the reduction of troops inside Gaza – from 30-40,000 at the height of the offensive to only a few thousand today – seemed to contradict Netanyahu’s repeated calls for “total victory,” as well as the prime minister’s recent statements that victory was imminent.

Horovitz also put the shift down to the change in tone by the U.S. administration and suggested that it was possible the embattled prime minister has recognized that “Israel cannot wage war against Hamas without the diplomatic and practical support of its main ally and weapons supplier.”

“[U].S. President Joe Biden and his key officials have made crystal clear in recent weeks that they don’t believe the IDF has a viable plan to target Hamas while protecting the million-plus Gazans sheltering in the Rafah area, and thus will not support a major offensive there,” Horovitz added.

A source familiar with Netanyahu’s thinking told JI that both diplomatic pressure and military strategy were involved in the changing tactics. The withdrawal of troops is primarily about creating conditions for some kind of cease-fire, and also about calming down the Americans, as well as showing that Israel is respecting the Muslim Eid al Fitr holiday and giving the army a break in order to prepare its forces to eventually enter Rafah, the source said. 

IDF spokesman Lt. Col. (res.) Peter Lerner told JI that the situation on the ground had changed in recent weeks, that the forces withdrawn over the weekend had completed their mission in Gaza and the army was now regrouping in preparation for future operations. 

“When you’ve degraded the capability of Hamas to operate as an organized force, then the type of operations you need to carry out are different and the operation shifts to a lower intensity, more intelligence guided operation with limited forces but with maximum impact,” Lerner said, explaining that the unit that left Gaza on Sunday belonged to the army’s 98th Division and had been battling in the southern Gaza town of Khan Younis for the past few months.

“They went through all the different neighborhoods, revealed the tunnel system, engaged with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists wherever they were and dismantled Hamas’ ability to operate,” he said. “That is why they were brought out.”

The division, he continued, was now “refreshing themselves” and would go through some further training in preparation for future missions. Troops from the Nahal Brigade have remained on the ground in Gaza, Lerner said.

Asked what would stop Hamas and other militant groups from returning to the area if the army is no longer there, the spokesman highlighted the recent two-week battle at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. The IDF initially entered the medical compound in November, but after clearing the premises, thousands of terrorists returned, admitting in interrogations that it was the safest place for them to hide, believing the army would not return to the hospital due to international criticism. The army, however, carried out a special precision operation in which it captured and killed hundreds of fighters.

Itamar Yaar, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, said the operation at Al-Shifa Hospital was a powerful warning to Hamas that the IDF would return to Gaza when and where it is needed.

Yaar, who serves as the CEO of Commanders for Israeli Security, an organization of some 550 ex-senior security officials, said that the military’s top commanders had to take into consideration a broad range of elements, including activities on the ground and intelligence information, when determining military strategy. He also said the army could easily send troops back into Gaza for special operations as needed.

“Most of the heavy forces were sent out [of Gaza] because the type of needs and the type of threats are now different,” Yaar said. “If you are a military commander, you need to be aware of all the circumstances and keep in mind what your mission is. Leaving troops on the ground just to have them there is not a good reason to stay.”

He also said that last week’s accidental strike on a World Central Kitchen convoy, which killed seven aid workers, as well as diplomatic matters, including the negotiations in Egypt, had an impact on the IDF’s actions in Gaza. Yaar said that the confluence of issues was “delaying dramatically any big operation the Israeli forces might carry out in Rafah.”

He also noted the increasing threats from Iran – and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq – this week, saying, “pulling Division 98 out of Gaza is the best sign that Israel is preparing itself for an operation in other areas, including Lebanon.”

Brig. Gen. (retired) Amir Avivi, CEO of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, also said that pulling out the 98th Division at this stage made sense but reiterated that Israel could not achieve victory in this war and restore security in Israel’s south unless it completely destroyed all of Hamas’ capabilities, including taking control of Rafah.

He said the army was just changing its mode of operation now that the forces operating in Khan Younis had destroyed Hamas’ military infrastructure there. Avivi also said he believed the focus would be on more pinpointed raids based on accurate intelligence. 

“Leaving troops inside Khan Younis at this stage would be more of a threat than an advantage,” he said, explaining that they would become targets for individual terrorists who might still be lurking in the area.

Avivi, a former brigadier general in the IDF’s engineering corps and previously responsible for the Gaza area, also said he believed that the 98th Division needed to be refreshed in order to help them better prepare for entering Rafah, which he predicted will most certainly happen.  

“Not going into Rafah means losing the war,” Avivi emphasized, adding that stopping the fighting now will not really end the war – as the U.S. administration hopes – because it will enable Hamas to build-up its forces and stay in power.

Senior Political Correspondent Lahav Harkov contributed to this report.