If the summer of 2023 was one of growing optimism that the country at the center of the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia, was about to take its first steps towards normalizing ties with Israel, the world’s only Jewish state – and that the path to a blooming peace would be via Washington – today, it seems that any possibility of reaching such a historic agreement begins and ends in Gaza.

As the war in the Palestinian enclave enters its fifth month, with headlines focused on the dire humanitarian situation for more than 2 million Gazans, any chance of kickstarting diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel appears to be contingent on the creation of – or even just the affirmation of – a Palestinian state.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s executive director, Robert Satloff, told Jewish Insider that while there is interest in Saudi Arabia for upgrading the strategic relationship with the U.S. – which Riyadh understands includes normalizing with Israel as a necessary precondition – “the Gaza conflict will require more from Israel in terms of a Palestinian component.”

Firstly, Satloff explained, Israel must compensate somewhat for the dismal way it is now being viewed in Saudi Arabia and in the broader Arab and Muslim public opinion, but also “extricate itself from post-Oct. 7 diplomatic isolation and to shift the political discourse at home from responsibility for the failures that led to Oct. 7 to the new opportunities of partnership with the region’s most influential Arab Muslim state.”

“Precisely what that higher ‘price’ is and whether the government of [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu – or some variant – can meet it remains unclear,” he added.

“What is not unclear, however, is that none of this can proceed without an end to fighting in Gaza, and none of that can occur without the ‘temporary cease-fire’ of a hostage-prisoner release deal,” Satloff said, adding that this particular track of “diplomacy is currently on hold, stymied by Hamas’ veto.”

“In the meantime, the clock is ticking in terms of America’s own political calendar, as it is widely assumed that the U.S. Senate could not take up ratification of what would be the first mutual defense treaty in more than a half-century during the run-up to our presidential election,” he noted.

“Bottom line, in my view, is that the sand in the hourglass is running out to accomplish this historic achievement before our election,” Satloff added. “It is not impossible but more improbable with every passing day.”

“It is amazing to understand that the [normalization] deal is still on the table,” Ksenia Svetlova, CEO of Ropes, a regional organization for peace, economics and security, and a former member of Israel’s Knesset, told JI.

“If you think about it, one of the goals of Israel’s enemies, the pro-Iranian alliance, was break down the Abraham Accords and another was to take the Saudi deal off the table,” Svetlova, who is also a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said. “Yet the Abraham Accords are still here, hopefully for good, and the Saudi deal is not off the table.”

However, she added: “Israel will now have to do much more, not only to plan and commit but to take real steps in the direction” of creating a Palestinian state.

According to Svetlova, despite the optimism prior to the Oct. 7 terror attacks, there was still a feeling that it “was impossible to reach normalization without some movement on the Palestinian track.”

“The Saudis kept saying ‘don’t mistake our goodwill for readiness to forget about the Palestinians and to move forward without any preconditions in this regard,’” she said, adding that the “events of Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza have made this deal much more complicated.”

“Israel will definitely need to do more in order to satisfy the Saudis, who are the leaders of the Arab world, in regard to the future vision, not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank,” Svetlova explained. “And I am certain that there is absolutely no way that this government will be able to recognize this even on paper.”

“Just the slightest mention of a two-state solution is impossible given the extremist partners in Netanyahu’s coalition,” she said, adding “he has proven that he will not take any risks to hurt his coalition.”

“Even with the humanitarian aid, which is a consensus issue, Netanyahu is not able to confront [National Security Minister] Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose supporters are blocking the aid from going into Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing,” Svetlana continued. “It is impossible to imagine that in the current constellation, that the Israeli government will mull recognizing two states.”

As for the Saudis, Svetlova pointed out that recent polling shows that “the vast majority of Saudi society now rejects normalization with Israel.”

If in the past, Saudis were focused on the economy and sporting events, today around 90% of the youth are active on social media and following what is happening in Gaza very closely, she explained.

“The level of awareness is unbelievable,” said Svetlova. “It is something that they have not seen there for years and it is creating a different political reality.”

“They [the leaders in Saudi Arabia] will need to find a solution to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza – a real plan that has guarantees,” she said, adding that there are some indications that the Saudis understand there will be no fast solution coming from the Israeli side, and that in order to achieve success, a future arrangement for the Palestinians needs to be acceptable in Israel, too.

Reports through the summer of 2023 indicated that the Biden administration was keen to develop full diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in an attempt to offset Chinese influence in the region and secure oil supplies against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Such a package, it was suggested, would also include pressure on the Saudis to normalize ties with Israel. 

In return, Saudi Arabia was demanding a mutual defense pact from the U.S. and an option to enrich uranium for civilian, and possibly military, purposes. There was also some talk that the kingdom, which stands at the center of the Muslim world due to the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, would call upon Israel to make some concessions to the Palestinians, although what, exactly, was not specified.  

Over the past few months, there have been some hints that the Saudis would still consider reaching an arrangement with Israel – in January, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the U.K. commented that Riyadh was “absolutely” still interested in normalizing with Jerusalem – an interest that is facing challenges as the war continues in Gaza and the Israeli government appears reluctant to chart a path towards a two-state solution with the Palestinians.

“It’s important to note, that the Saudi position is that it is still willing to normalize relations with Israel, but only once the conditions are right or suitable,” Aziz Alghashian, a fellow at Project Sepad, a think tank at the University of Lancaster in the U.K., who researches Saudi foreign policy on Israel, told JI.

“In fact, this has always been the Saudi position since the mid-1990s,” he continued, adding “what has changed is that there is an American dimension now that the Saudis would like, in addition to a Palestinian element that is needed to legitimize any settlement of normalization with Israel – this arguably complicates the road to normalization by adding more variables that need to be aligned.”

“Against the current backdrop of death and destruction, the context for any normalization is very distant,” Alghashian continued. “The Saudis need to have a Palestinian element, and currently, the statements regarding the refusal of a two-state solution from the Netanyahu government, and the ongoing military campaign in Gaza, which Saudi refuses to accept as self-defense, makes steps towards normalization more difficult.”

Alghashian explained that the current government, which has moved forward with plans to expand settlements in the West Bank, “has made it even more difficult.”

“The Saudis need to see a partner in Israel that will not make normalization harder by being provocative, and one that is willing to work with Palestinians,” he said. “Netanyahu seems to think that he can have his cake and eat it when it comes to normalization with the Saudis… In other words, he wants to normalize ties with Saudi for free, and the Saudis know their price is bigger than that.”

Despite the excitement over the potential for normalization only six months ago, Alghashian pointed out that the “excitement overlooked the other half of Saudi official discourse that has been warning of a dangerous situation on the horizon.”

“The Saudi considers this tragic war, with all its Palestinian and Israeli casualties, as a stark reminder of why there needs to be a political horizon that safeguards not only Palestinians, Israelis, but all the region from more conflict,” he said. “The Saudi will need to see more measures taken regarding a Palestinian political horizon as this conflict has demonstrated its capacity to disrupt any regional stability.”

“It is worth noting that regional stability is key for Saudi, as it is undergoing a great deal of restructuring of its economy,” noted Alghashian. “In short, for the Saudis, the Palestinian issue is not just normatively important, but is important for regional security.”

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that while right now it appears that “normalization has been shelved,” it is not a definitive death sentence for the overall prospect.

“This war will end,” he observed. “Presidents come and go… dynamics change rapidly in the Middle East… and there will be new opportunities soon enough.”

“I actually believe that if the U.S. made it clear that Israel had freedom of action in Gaza and Lebanon, with the full backing of the U.S. government, then the Saudi track could kick into high gear again,” Schanzer said. “But so long as the Biden administration appears content to challenge Israel over its war tactics and strategies, I don’t believe normalization will be a priority.”

“Why would Saudi Arabia want to deepen its alliance with a U.S. administration that ties the hands of allies fighting Iranian proxies?” he said. 

Either way “it will be hard for the Israeli government to offer any concessions [toward the Palestinians] until we are on the other side of Ramadan – the warnings of an eruption in the West Bank will certainly tie the hands of Netanyahu and his government,” Schanzer concluded.