Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has emerged as the front-runner in the contest to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), with national Republicans swiftly coalescing around her bid for the GOP nomination as they look to avoid a messy primary battle.

Hinson, a politically tested lawmaker who has long been viewed as a potential successor to Ernst, launched her Senate campaign within hours of Ernst’s announcement last Tuesday that she would not seek a third term. 

Hinson, in her candidate announcement, said that she would be President Donald Trump’s “strongest ally” in the Senate and would work to “deliver the America First agenda.” She also praised Ernst for her military service and time in public office, saying that, “Our country and state are better off because of Joni’s selfless service.”

Hinson, a prolific fundraiser who entered the race with a $2.8 million war chest, began racking up endorsements shortly after her campaign launch. Trump endorsed Hinson on Friday, as did Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

Trump described Hinson as “a wonderful person” whom he knows “well,” and praised her devotion to her family before touting her commitment to “our incredible Iowa workers.”

“She is working hard to Create Jobs, Cut Taxes, Promote Products and Services MADE IN AMERICA by our incredible Iowa Workers, Support our Great Farmers and American Agriculture, Champion Innovation, Continue to Help Secure our now very Secure Southern Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote of Hinson on his Truth Social platform.

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told JI. 

Ernst and Hinson are close professionally and personally; in addition to being friends, the two have long been aligned on foreign and domestic policy and worked together on scores of bicameral legislative efforts. 

Both lawmakers have been repeatedly endorsed by AIPAC and the Republican Jewish Coalition, though neither organizations have officially gotten behind Hinson’s Senate bid yet. While Ernst hasn’t endorsed in the race either, Hinson is the candidate she is most aligned with ideologically. 

“From a foreign policy perspective, or even culturally with respect to antisemitism and all that sort of thing, I don’t think that you’re going to see a lot of difference between Joni Ernst, who’s been a strong supporter of Israel and who I think has been a really effective leader on the national stage, and Ashley,” David Kochel, a veteran GOP campaign operative, told Jewish Insider. 

“On issues of concern to Jewish Americans, Ashley Hinson has been an absolute stalwart,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI.

Markstein described Hinson as “an incredibly strong voice in Israel’s defense,” citing her “calling Hamas’ terror attack ‘evil,’ and affirming Israel’s right to defend itself immediately” after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel as examples. He also noted that she has “consistently voted for vital military aid to Israel and Iron Dome defense systems,” and pointed to her cosponsoring legislation “to pressure the Biden administration to deliver critical aid that they were holding up as the Jewish state was fighting a seven-front war.” 

“She has stood strongly against the Iranian regime by supporting measures to reinstitute maximum pressure and reimpose crippling sanctions. Ashley Hinson also has a very strong record on combating antisemitism. Notably, unlike some on the neo-isolationist far right, when Ashley Hinson says, ‘America First,’ for her, and for the RJC, that means standing strongly with our allies, like Israel, peace through strength, using decisive military action when necessary and rejecting forever wars,” Markstein said.

The swift action on Hinson’s part in launching her campaign and locking down major endorsements has propelled her campaign to front-runner status in the race, and a smooth primary contest could benefit what are already strong general election chances for Republicans in the Hawkeye State. 

“Ashley’s been pretty good on the Trump record,” Kochel said. “I think things are going to consolidate pretty quickly around her.”

“She is definitely going to be the leading candidate in the Republican primary, and she’s going to be a very tough candidate in the general election as well,” he told JI. 

Thus far in the primary, Hinson is facing Jim Carlin, a Republican former state senator who initially entered the contest to challenge Ernst from the right after winning 27% of the vote against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) in a 2022 primary, and Joshua Smith, a former libertarian and podcast host who is a sharp critic of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Smith has espoused virulently anti-Israel beliefs on social media, posting in March of this year on X that Israel is a “fake state of anti Jesus heathens who are fine with killing children” and claiming in a post last May that Jewish people suffer from a “Jewish victim complex.”

Hinson began her career in local television as a broadcast journalist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and went on to win two Midwest regional Emmy Awards and become a health reporting fellow for the Radio Television Digital News Association. She entered politics in 2016, when she won a competitive seat in the Iowa state House of Representatives representing the purple Cedar Rapids area by a two-to-one margin. 

Hinson was elected to the House in 2020 after defeating former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, a Democrat who flipped Iowa’s 1st Congressional District blue in 2018, by more than two points. 

The other rumored candidate looking at the race is U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, Trump’s former acting attorney general during his first term who lost to Ernst in the GOP primary for her Senate seat in 2014. But with Trump and leading Republicans rallying behind Hinson, the prospects of Whitaker running has dimmed. 

The Democratic side of the aisle has a crowded field of candidates competing for the party’s nomination, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls and Jackie Norris, chairwoman of the Des Moines Public Schools board. 

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Sam Markstein, who serves as national political director for the RJC, told JI. “Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership.”

Democrats have expressed an interest in contesting the open Senate seat in Iowa, a now reliably Republican state that was a battleground before Trump’s political ascendance. 

The party has some renewed confidence in their political standing in the state, after Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a special election last month. The state currently has one state elected official that’s a Democrat: State Auditor Rob Sand. 

Whether national Democrats will allocate resources to the Hawkeye State remains to be determined, but winning statewide as a Democrat in deep red Iowa will be a difficult challenge. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, when former Sen. Tom Harkin handily won a fifth term, prompting Republicans to dismiss the notion that this race will be competitive.

“Whoever wins the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Iowa will have a very, very strong chance of succeeding Joni Ernst,” Markstein told JI. 

“Regarding Ashley Hinson specifically, ask yourself what the telltale signs of a well-run operation are, and you’ll see she is clearly checking all of the boxes: the speed and efficiency of her campaign launch, announcing support from President Trump, as well as House and Senate leadership. This, and more, illustrates that she’s focused, organized, and has an excellent team around her, all of which is needed to win,” he continued.

The NRSC sent a memo to donors last week expressing confidence that Democrats would face an uphill slog in Iowa, and touted Hinson as a “formidable contender” who “would be  exceedingly difficult for any Democrat to challenge.”

A source familiar with how the NRSC is viewing the contest told JI that, “Democrats are trying really hard to say that Iowa is in play and that it is a competitive race. That’s just not electorally where we view it.” 

“It’s also just not ultimately what the field on their side signals. They have a very messy, competitive primary right now. It does not appear that [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer is going to be able to clear the field. That is obviously a direct contrast to what we’re seeing so far on our side,” the source said, noting the growing support for Hinson on the GOP side of the aisle. 

Kochel noted that, “Iowa historically was a swing state. [Former President Barack] Obama won it twice and Trump’s won it three times, but certainly the registration advantage that Republicans have has been growing. As the electorate has changed in the last 10 years, more non-college [educated], white, working-class voters are becoming more and more Republican. We’ve got a lot of those in Iowa.”

“Demographically, Iowa is kind of getting away from the Democrats a little bit,” he continued, predicting, “We’ll see this race settle into a pretty familiar framework.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is facing mounting pressure from Jewish leaders and Democratic colleagues who have privately voiced frustrations with the continued delay in moving to advance a major bill aimed at addressing a recent surge in antisemitic activity on college campuses.

Schumer, who has been outspoken against rising antisemitism in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, had endorsed prior versions of the legislation, called the Antisemitism Awareness Act, which first passed the Senate in 2016 under unanimous consent. 

But after an initial effort to unanimously fast-track the bill failed last month in the Senate, Schumer has since delayed for weeks in bringing the bill up for a floor vote, even as it is expected to pass comfortably with bipartisan support and has won backing from a large number of Jewish groups.

In a brief interview with Jewish Insider on Thursday afternoon, Schumer, who has rarely addressed the matter publicly, stressed that he is now “looking at every single option to try and get strong, bipartisan legislation passed,” but he did not share a timeline for approving the bill.

“The crusade against antisemitism is in my bones, has been for my whole life,” he said, describing “the goals and aspirations of” the bill as “so important in this fight and to the future.”

Still, the holdup has angered supporters of the bill who allege that Schumer — the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the country — is now slow-walking a floor vote because he is fearful that it will highlight divisions within his caucus while garnering a larger share of Republican backers.

“He is avoiding this at all costs,” said a person familiar with the matter who spoke with JI on the condition of anonymity to address a sensitive topic. “The reason why he hates this is because Schumer knows there’s going to be 40 to 45 Republicans who are going to vote for this bill, but there’s only going to be 30 Democrats.”

The bill would enshrine a definition of antisemitism used by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance into federal law and direct the Department of Education to consider the definition — which, among other things, identifies some criticism of Israel as antisemitic — in evaluating complaints of anti-Jewish discrimination on college campuses. That policy has been in place since 2019 under an executive order signed by former President Donald Trump.

While the legislation passed the House early last month by a wide margin, it has also drawn opposition from members of both parties, including some progressive and right-wing critics who have raised varying objections to the bill on free speech grounds.

Despite some resistance to the bill in the Senate, however, two of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in November —  Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) — are each eager for Schumer to call a vote and are urging him to act, according to sources familiar with their outreach. 

A Senate aide confirmed to JI on Tuesday that Casey, who reintroduced the legislation with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) in April, is pushing Schumer to move forward.

“The horrific rise in reported incidents of antisemitism is a clarion call for Congress to step up and protect students on campuses across the nation,” Casey said in a statement shared with JI on Thursday. “The need for my Antisemitism Awareness Act has never been greater and I am working with Leader Schumer on all legislative options to pass it as quickly as possible.”

For her part, Rosen, a Jewish Democrat who is the lead sponsor of a separate antisemitism bill that also remains stalled in the Senate, has grown especially frustrated with Schumer’s delay as the summer congressional recess draws closer, said one well-placed source familiar with her thinking.

In a statement to JI, however, Rosen expressed confidence in Schumer’s approach to the bill, which she called “an important step in addressing rising campus antisemitism.”

“At a time when antisemitism has skyrocketed across the United States in the aftermath of the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel, particularly on college campuses, I’ve been working with Senator Schumer to advance the bipartisan Antisemitism Awareness Act,” she said, adding that the majority leader “is looking at every path forward to get this done.”

Meanwhile, several Jewish leaders who met with Schumer last month to lobby on behalf of the bill indicated in a follow-up letter sent to his office last Friday that their patience has been wearing thin.

In the letter, obtained by JI and written by top officials at a range of major Jewish and pro-Israel groups, the Jewish leaders requested an update from Schumer and “once again” exhorted him to greenlight a vote, emphasizing that in their initial meeting he had “committed to us that there would be movement on the bill within a short timeframe.”

Describing the legislation as “a high priority of the American Jewish community,” the Jewish leaders called on Schumer to move with alacrity before the fall semester begins on campuses, citing “a dramatic increase of antisemitic activity” on college campuses amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

“We must ensure that, when students arrive on campus in the fall, we have adequately equipped the agencies tasked with protecting their civil rights,” the signatories elaborated in their letter to Schumer. “The Antisemitism Awareness Act is a key piece of this effort. In light of this unfolding crisis, we urge you to bring the bill to the Senate floor prior to the beginning of the 2024-25 academic year.”

The letter was signed by William Daroff of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations; Ted Deutch of the American Jewish Committee; Eric Fingerhut of the Jewish Federations of North America; Jonathan Greenblatt of the Anti-Defamation League; Howard Kohr of AIPAC; Eric Goldstein of UJA-Federation of New York; and Nathan Diament, executive director of public policy for the Orthodox Union.

A source familiar with the situation previously told JI that, during the meeting with Jewish leaders, Schumer had indicated that he is still trying to resolve objections to the bill, which is likely to be a difficult prospect given entrenched opposition from some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who say the legislation limits free speech. The Jewish leaders urged Schumer to bring the bill to a vote.

In comments to JI on Thursday, representatives of some of the Jewish groups that met with Schumer reiterated their support for the bill. “We are eager for the AAA to be voted on by the Senate,” Diament said in a statement, using an acronym for the bill. “It passed the House by an overwhelming margin and we are confident the same will happen in the Senate when brought for a vote.”

Karen Paikin Barall, vice president of government relations at JFNA, echoed that view, calling the Antisemitism Awareness Act “a critical piece of legislation” and voicing “hope it will come to a vote in the Senate as soon as possible. We are confident that it will pass.”

The ADL has been “working closely with” Schumer and his team, said Dan Granot, the group’s director of government relations, “and as we have discussed multiple times, now is the time for Congress to step up and meet this moment of rising antisemitism.”

Julie Fishman Rayman, the managing director of policy and political affairs at the AJC, called Schumer “a committed ally of the American Jewish community” and said he “knows that it is in the best interest of the community to get a bill that defines and counters antisemitism passed by the Senate before the end of this congressional session.”

On Thursday, some Jewish leaders also came to his defense.

Sheila Katz, the CEO of the National Council of Jewish Women, who attended the meeting with Schumer last month, said in an interview with JI that “passing legislation to combat antisemitism is a top priority” for the Senate leader. “Once again,” she said, “he has mobilized to ensure critical legislation to combat antisemitism moves forward. He is doing this in a thoughtful and strategic way by actively working with multiple stakeholders and Jewish organizations.”

But while NCJW supports the IHRA definition as “an educational tool,” as the group states on its website, it does “not recommend this be codified into law or used to prohibit freedom of speech in any way.” Katz clarified to JI that NCJW “has been focused on advocating for” another bill that Schumer has co-sponsored called the Countering Antisemitism Act, which was introduced in April by Rosen and Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), but noted that “we do not oppose the AAA.”

Amy Spitalnick, the CEO of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs, said that Schumer’s “commitment to addressing the crisis of antisemitism is crystal clear.” 

Her group, she told JI, is also working with the senator’s team on “a legislative path forward” for such bills as the Countering Antisemitism Act, which seeks to codify and expand on the Biden administration’s national strategy to combat antisemitism and is endorsed by a broad swath of the Jewish community. 

The JCPA, however, has “not taken a position” on the Antisemitism Awareness Act, according to Spitalnick. 

The White House declined to comment directly on the bill, noting instead that the Countering Antisemitism Act “is aligned with the administration’s national strategy to counter antisemitism in important ways.” President Joe Biden “welcomes congressional action in this fight,” Andrew Bates, a White House spokesperson, told JI on Thursday.  

In a sign of brewing frustration with Schumer across the Jewish denominational spectrum, a sizable coalition of Orthodox rabbis issued a joint statement last week accusing the majority leader of “obstructing” a handful of bills concerning the Jewish community, including the Antisemitism Awareness Act, which now has 31 co-sponsors almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.

With the bill continuing to languish in the upper chamber, some critics are skeptical of Schumer’s commitment to advancing what they see as urgently needed legislation to counter a rise in antisemitism that has riven college campuses in recent months.

The majority leader has given some notable floor remarks where he has condemned antisemitism, including a landmark speech last November in which he argued that anti-Israel animus “in the wake of Oct. 7 is all too often crossing into brazen and widespread antisemitism, the likes of which we haven’t seen for generations in this country.”

More recently, Schumer took to the Senate floor earlier this month to speak out against a widely denounced pro-Hamas demonstration at an exhibit in downtown Manhattan honoring the victims of the Nova music festival massacre. 

But Schumer’s more cautious approach to legislation addressing antisemitism has recently drawn scrutiny, particularly as he has also faced backlash from some Jewish and pro-Israel groups over his sharply worded speech in March calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an obstacle to peace and advocating for new elections to replace the Israeli leader.

“By all accounts, the success or failure of the Antisemitism Awareness Act now depends almost entirely on the decision of one man: Majority Leader Schumer,” Kenneth Marcus, the founder and president of the Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law, said in an email to JI this week.

Marcus, who relied on the IHRA definition while overseeing anti-Jewish discrimination cases as the head of the Department of Education’s Office of Civil Rights in the Trump administration, said that Schumer “need only call the bill to a vote, and it will probably pass.”

“The problem is that a roll call vote could expose fissures within both parties, with far greater problems among the Democrats,” he suggested. 

Even as Schumer vowed to explore all available avenues to pass the bill, he emphasized in his comments to JI that “beating back antisemitism also involves public education and fervent voices to say things like I said in my own speech on antisemitism and so many times afterwards, as recently as this week.”

“As I continue to meet with other senators, Jewish groups and other stakeholders,” Schumer added, “my North Star is always going to be the Jewish values I hold and the history we as Jews have learned.”

By Jacob Kornbluh & JI Staff