Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) sudden announcement on Sunday that he won’t seek reelection is kicking off one of the most competitive Senate contests of the 2026 cycle, and underscoring the precarious standing for moderate-minded lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Tillis, 64, who was first elected to the Senate in 2014, was already expected to face electoral headwinds from both directions in his bid for a third term. His pragmatic instincts angered right-winger Republicans back home while his willingness to ultimately support Trump’s agenda didn’t win him any goodwill with Democrats.

Tillis is the second congressional Republican with a record of winning tough races to retire over the weekend, joining Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who decided to leave Washington amid growing partisanship and polarization. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), another accomplished legislator who occasionally has antagonized his right flank, is also facing a difficult primary campaign against a right-wing opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

North Carolina is one of the Democrats’ strongest opportunities to flip a GOP-held Senate seat next year, and party leaders are hoping former Gov. Roy Cooper decides to run for the open seat. The Cook Political Report said on Sunday it had moved the race from Lean Republican to the “Toss Up” category.

“Cooper — who would likely clear the Democratic field if he runs — faces the prospect of a much easier open seat contest, while Republicans could have to sort out a messy primary field to succeed Tillis that is sure to produce a nominee further to the right than the outgoing GOP senator,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylot wrote.

At least four Republicans have already confirmed they are considering entering the North Carolina Senate race, including Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and a North Carolina native; Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-NC), a freshman who was elected to succeed former GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry last year; Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC), who previously served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives; and Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC), a former urologist elected to the House in 2019. 

A source close to Lara Trump, who is married to the president’s son Eric, told NBC News on Monday afternoon that she is “strongly considering jumping in the race.” Asked what the odds were that Trump would get in the race, the source replied: “I’d put it as high as one could be considering it. …The race will be over before it begins.”

Lara Trump, 42, has expressed interest in joining the Senate as far back as 2021, when former Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) retired after becoming the subject of an insider trading probe, an investigation that ultimately ended without him facing criminal charges. She also discussed the possibility of filling the Senate vacancy in Florida left by Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this year, though that seat ultimately went to Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL), the state’s attorney general. 

Among the other GOP names being floated in the race to replace Tillis are Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who chaired the North Carolina GOP for five years prior to assuming his current role. 

In a statement responding to the news of Tillis’ announcement, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, made no mention of the outgoing senator, instead restating the party’s intention to keep the seat in GOP hands. 

“President Trump has won North Carolina three times, and the state’s been represented by two Republican senators for over a decade. That streak will continue in 2026 when North Carolinians elect a conservative leader committed to advancing an agenda of opportunity, prosperity, and security,” Scott said in a statement.

On the Democratic side, former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-NC) has already launched his campaign, though major donors and national Democrats alike are urging Cooper to enter the race. The former two-term governor has told allies he expects to make a decision this summer. 

“Thom Tillis’ decision not to run for reelection is another blow to Republicans’ chances as they face a midterm backlash that puts their majority at risk. Even Tillis admits the GOP plan to slash Medicaid and spike costs for families is toxic – and in 2026, Democrats will flip North Carolina’s Senate seat,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle said. 

Tillis’ decision to bow out of politics also has implications for the current Congress. The North Carolina senator suggested in his retirement announcement that he intends to vote his conscience when he has policy disagreements with the president, setting him up as a key swing vote during the remainder of his tenure. 

“I look forward to solely focusing on producing meaningful results without the distraction of raising money or campaigning for another election. I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability,” Tillis said.

Republicans still maintain a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and are still strongly favored to maintain their majority in the upper chamber after next year’s midterms. Democrats need to flip four seats next year to win back the majority.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is expected to be another top Democratic target, but Democrats don’t have a lot of other obvious pickup opportunities aside from North Carolina and Maine. Party leaders may target Texas, especially if Cornyn loses his primary, and are expected to challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) in the now-reliably Republican state. Ohio and Florida’s Senate seats, both held by appointed Republicans, may also become competitive if Democrats recruit strong challengers.