Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) warned on Thursday that the U.S. needs to continue to monitor the “shifting loyalties” of Saudi Arabia, amid concerns that Riyadh is pivoting away from its traditional allies and toward Islamist actors. 

The Texas senator, who serves on the Senate intelligence Committee and foreign relations committees, told Jewish Insider that while he supports the Trump administration working to add Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords, the U.S. should be cognizant of “shifting loyalties and alliances there.”

“The Abraham Accords were a huge and important development, and I think it’s something worth continuing to try to expand and encourage, but I think we have to go in with our eyes open and realize there’s a lot of shifting and maybe even divided loyalties occurring in this region,” Cornyn told JI. 

“Qatar has been problematic for all sorts of reasons that we all know, playing both ends against the middle, and I think Saudi Arabia is probably looking to figure out how to gain advantage, but my hope would be that we continue to put pressure on Iran and its proxies, which we’ve done,” he continued.

Talking to JI a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s White House sitdown with President Donald Trump that largely focused on Iran, Cornyn said that he was skeptical of the regime’s ability to conduct diplomacy with the U.S. or honor the terms of any agreement. 

“I think diplomacy is destined to fail because they’re not going to live up to one sentence, one word of any negotiated agreement, so they can be depended on to cheat. They are determined to destroy Israel and start a war in the Middle East. I know the president is taking it very seriously,” the GOP senator said. “I think the president is preserving all of his options, but again, how do you negotiate with somebody who cheats and who will not abide by any part of any negotiated agreement?”

“I don’t think it necessarily hurts at least to suggest that there may be some negotiations that could occur, but again, I don’t expect Iran to stand behind any negotiated outcome. I think given their commitment to the destruction of Israel, and obviously they are an ideological movement, a theocracy,” he added. “Negotiating with somebody like that is asking them to change who they are, and that will never happen.”

Despite this, Cornyn argued that it was important for the U.S. to “acknowledge that any military action against the regime in Iran would likely spill over to other places.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) expressed confidence on Thursday that Saudi Arabia is intent on maintaining its status as a moderating force in the Middle East amid growing concerns that Riyadh is entertaining more hardline Islamism.

Graham met on Thursday morning with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud in Washington and spoke by phone on Wednesday with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. The South Carolina senator sat down with Jewish Insider on Thursday afternoon for a wide-ranging discussion, where he said that, despite feeling unsettled by some Saudi conduct, he is not concerned that the kingdom is making a pivot toward a more extremist posture, as some in the region and the Jewish community have worried.

Graham had earlier this week publicly criticized the kingdom for its growing conflict with the United Arab Emirates and what he described as a failure to act to protect the Syrian Kurds against Syrian government advances.

“After having met with the Saudis today, I understand their concerns better. I don’t agree with everything they’ve done, but I fundamentally believe that the vision is still the same,” Graham told JI. “To all those who think like me and have been upset by what you’ve heard, I understand why you’re upset, but I would just say this: If I feel good, you should feel good.”

Once a vocal critic of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman — particularly in the aftermath of the 2018 murder of Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi — Graham said that MBS’ grand economic and development plan, Vision 2030, convinced him that the Saudi government is interested in development, peace and deradicalization, because those factors would be incompatible with MBS’ plan.

“If the man is willing to spend a trillion dollars to make Saudi Arabia a destination of choice, he’s got to be smart enough to know that the old model of the Mideast has to be replaced,” he said of the crown prince.

Graham said claims that Vision 2030 had stalled were “overstated” and dismissed the notion that the Saudis were struggling financially, despite flagging oil prices. The kingdom recently announced plans to significantly scale back the flagship Vision 2030 project and the futuristic megacity Neom.

“They’ve had 97 projects, 94 are on target,” Graham said of Vision 2030. “This idea that Saudi Arabia is running out of money is bulls**t. Every time you fill up your car, they appreciate it. … They’re not abandoning their 2030 model. Has anybody in Turkey talked about a 2030 model?”

The South Carolina senator, a leading advocate for U.S. strikes against the Iranian regime, also said he expects that action against the Islamic Republic is still forthcoming, arguing that the United States’ credibility is on the line after President Donald Trump promised protesters that the U.S. would assist them.

Graham framed the protests and their ultimate outcome as a tipping point for the region and the world.

“[Trump] said, ‘Keep protesting. Help is on the way.’ That is his Ronald Reagan moment. You have to follow through,” Graham said, referring to Reagan’s demand for the Berlin Wall to be torn down, and arguing that there is now a clock running for the U.S. to take action.

“Regime change is being led by the people. The question is: Are you for the ayatollah or the people? Donald Trump said, ‘I’ll be with the people.’ Well, that means you’ve got to be with the people,” he added. “I’d like to find a solution without conflict. I don’t know what that would be, but I am confident that it can’t go on forever. There’ll come a point where the people lose hope. We’re not there yet, but the sooner we can demonstrate help is on the way, the better.”

If the U.S. fails to follow through, Graham warned, “It’s going to make Afghanistan look like a cakewalk.”

“Everybody’s gonna hedge their bets. Nobody will follow America. Nobody will trust the idea that, you know, making peace is good. It will set the region back 100 years,” he continued.

And, Graham argued, the fall of the Iranian regime is a precondition for any further progress toward regional normalization.

“Nobody in their right mind can talk about normalization in the Mideast until we know how the protests end in Iran,” Graham said. “If, in fact, the ayatollah is still standing after all this bluster and rhetoric, normalization is lost for decades.”

But if the regime falls, bringing its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis down with it, Graham asserted that normalization would be easy to achieve, adding, “If you could sink the mothership, the ripple effect changes Lebanon and Syria.”

Graham said that, from everything he knows about Trump, he expects the president to follow through on his promise to the protesters. He added that he expects the U.S., and potentially Israel, to deliver a “bigger” hit to the regime now than they might have if they struck several weeks ago when the protests began.

“I will judge the president by what he says and what he does. I have no reason to believe that he will not fulfill the promises he’s made. His track record is pretty good. He doesn’t want conflict, but he won’t be trifled with,” Graham said.

Trump’s vacillating threats to the regime, and the lack of U.S. action following a crackdown that officials said has quelled the recent protests, have created uncertainty about how the U.S. plans to proceed. Media reports and public comments by Trump indicated that the administration was interested in reopening negotiations with Tehran, but over the last week, Trump has gradually amped up threats of a military strike against Iran amid continued intransigence from Tehran. 

Graham said that the Islamic Republic should accept any offers of diplomacy from the U.S., but that he’s not surprised the regime hasn’t been amenable, describing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “religious Nazi.”

He expects that a U.S. campaign would involve “enough lethality to make the people who live without fear live with fear, to make those who are killing the people … wonder if maybe they’ll wake up dead tomorrow.” He said the U.S. would also maintain economic pressure on Iran.

“If whatever we do doesn’t inspire the people and put some fear in the regime, we’ve made a mistake,” he continued.

Still, he emphasized that he does not expect a U.S. invasion of Iran.

Graham rejected concerns that Khamenei could be replaced by someone equally radical if removed from power.

“Most likely, the day after in Iran, if the ayatollah falls, is a long road back to a more accommodating Iran that wants to be prosperous,” Graham said. “Why would you double down on the things that got you in this? … Now, it won’t be Jeffersonian democracy, but it’ll be something we can live with.”

The GOP senator also said that he supports the approach in a post-regime Iran outlined Wednesday by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which would likely involve a transfer of power to others inside the Iranian government, potentially within its military, if the ayatollah falls — akin to the approach the U.S. took in Venezuela.

“We’re not going to do the Iraq thing where we fire everybody,” Graham said. “We’re going to trust the people taking over to understand that the old ways have got to go. If you want to perpetuate the old ways, you’re not going to make it. … To the people taking over in Iran, if you act like the ayatollah, we’ll bomb you too.”

Graham, together with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), introduced legislation on Thursday, the Save the Kurds Act, that aims to largely re-implement the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria, repealed by Congress in December amid pressure from the Trump administration.

Graham was a longstanding skeptic of unconditional sanctions relief, without snapback measures, for the Syrian regime, and the new legislation comes in response to advances on territory run by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S.’ primary allies in Syria in the war against ISIS.

In a reversal of current U.S. policy, the bill would sanction Syrian government officials and financial institutions, and any foreign individuals who engage in any transaction with the Syrian government, as well as re-designating Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the faction that Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa led, as a terrorist organization.

The administration would be able to suspend the sanctions if the Syrian government stops all attacks on the SDF, but would be required to immediately reimpose them if attacks resume.

Softening his rhetoric from earlier in the week, Graham told JI he’s optimistic that Saudi Arabia wants to deal as an honest broker to decrease tensions between al-Sharaa’s government and the Kurds — something he said was not the case with Turkey — and urged Saudi officials to maintain that approach. 

He said that he’s very concerned about al-Sharaa, after he “gave him a chance,” warning that failing to protect the Kurds would ultimately lead to a situation in Syria as bad or worse than under the former Assad regime.

“If we let radical Arab groups and [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan eliminate the Kurds, nobody would ever follow America again,” Graham warned. “‘One Syria’ cannot be accomplished through the threat of the gun.”

Graham made waves in Washington and Jerusalem earlier this month with comments that he wanted to quickly wind down U.S. aid to Israel, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he wants to wean the Jewish state off of U.S. financial assistance in the next decade.

He promptly traveled to Israel to discuss the matter of future U.S. aid and Israel’s plans for Iran with Netanyahu and top Israeli defense officials. Following a meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem, tensions seem to have cooled, with Graham saying he “understand[s] better what he’s saying” despite the two not being totally aligned.

He said that his concern has been that U.S. aid to Israel has been a strong investment that has paid dividends for the U.S., while Netanyahu is concerned with being perceived as a burden on the U.S. — though Graham maintained that ending aid will do nothing to placate anti-Israel voices in the U.S.

Graham said that Netanyahu had a “very, I think, clever way of modernizing the weapons systems to our mutual benefit that’s different than aid, so I was impressed,” adding, “I’d like to be a partner with” Israel’s technological developments.

Many analysts believe that the future of U.S.-Israel cooperation lies more in co-produced and jointly developed programs than in direct financial assistance from the U.S. to Israel, and such programs have been growing in recent years.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) warned on Thursday that the U.S. would need to reevaluate its relationship with Saudi Arabia if Riyadh makes a long-term pivot against efforts to normalize relations with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested this week that Saudi Arabia’s increasing rapprochement with Turkey and Qatar would be a nonstarter for continued normalization efforts. Leading Saudi figures and media have also recently taken a strongly anti-Israel and antisemitic tone, which Netanyahu said provides aid to anti-Israel forces.

“If they’re reversing course on normalization, all bets are off for almost everything, including a defense treaty and other kinds of agreements,” Blumenthal told Jewish Insider. “I would very much regret it, and I think they would too in the long run, because it goes against all of the long-term goals of the kingdom to turn a leaf on terrorism and restore or reimagine their economy with less dependence on oil.”

He added that he “would be very surprised” if Riyadh actually makes such a pivot “and I hope that this indication of a change in course is just a short-term flip.”

Pressed on signals that Riyadh’s long-term vision may be shifting — given Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties to Turkey and Qatar and its recent plans to scale back some of the landmark megaprojects that were part of its Vision 2030 push — Blumenthal said he believes that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s plan remains the same.

“I think there continues to be a long-term strategy in MBS’ mind, but there’s no question we need to be very clear-eyed that there are reactionary forces, and frankly antisemitic elements, in the regime,” Blumenthal said. “And we’re going to see those elements bubble up and potentially resist progress — and hopefully not prevent it. But we need to be very mindful of the mantra ‘trust but verify’ when dealing with Saudi.”

Two Republican senators offered a more optimistic view on the future of the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) said that “every conversation I’ve had with Saudi Arabia is that they’re interested in normalization,” and that he would have to hear from Riyadh directly before judging the consequences of any potential change in direction.

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said that he didn’t have a strong read on Saudi Arabia’s current stance on normalization, but that he continues to believe that it is in the U.S.’ and the world’s interest.

“That brings long-term stability to the region,” Lankford said. “It’s been one of the main dividing points in the region is this absurd belief that Israel’s not even a country should be recognized. We don’t break through that until everybody just acknowledges everybody’s sovereignty.”

Saudi Arabia’s growing economic struggles have raised doubts among foreign policy experts about whether Riyadh can fulfill its sweeping monetary commitments to the United States.

During Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House last November, the crown prince pledged to increase his country’s investments in the U.S. to nearly $1 trillion, committing funds to projects spanning artificial intelligence, energy, defense and infrastructure.

But the kingdom is now facing significant financial strain, driven by persistently low oil prices and the immense funding demands of its domestic development agenda, including Saudi Vision 2030, a major government initiative taken on a decade ago to diversify Saudi’s economy, society and culture, which has since been downsized. 

“It’s an economic challenge, and frankly, crisis is a word which works for it,” said Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The Saudi economy requires $100 barrels of oil, and although the price of oil has gone up a bit in recent days, it’s still low and way short of $100.”

Henderson emphasized that while Saudi Arabia remains a wealthy country due to its hydrocarbon reserves, declining revenue has forced the government to scale back or cancel marquee projects. 

Among the most visible examples Henderson cited were the indefinite postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games, which the kingdom was set to host at a futuristic mountain resort as part of its Neom mega‑project, as well as the postponement of a major construction project in Riyadh.

“They have had some very ambitious projects which are very expensive, and there isn’t the money to fund the projects,” Henderson said. “If you’ve got plans for the economy and you can’t fulfill them and you have to cancel them, then that makes it a crisis.” 

Due to the increasing financial strain and decision to scale back major financial ventures, experts remain skeptical that Riyadh will have the capacity to live up to its major investment commitments in the U.S. 

Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said the pledge is “in doubt,” and called the initial promise “as much performance as substance.” 

“A lot of the money Riyadh would devote to U.S. investments is instead being plowed into its ambitious Vision 2030 development projects at home,” said Ruhe. “We already see this reflected in the recent announcements that Neom and other high-prestige gigaprojects are being scaled back. Combined with persistently low oil prices, this means the kingdom is running deficits. In this crunch, borrowing to fund overseas investments becomes less likely.”

Henderson echoed those sentiments, calling Saudi’s investment pledge a “headline figure with a very strong Trump dimension to it.”

“Clearly they [Saudi Arabia] can’t do it at the moment,” said Henderson. “Everybody knew it was far-fetched and probably an exaggeration. It’s clearly not going to happen anytime soon.”

Ruhe noted that several countries in the Middle East practice what he called “checkbook diplomacy” in order to “grab headlines during major summits” and “gratify Trump’s desire to be a deal-maker.” He noted that a similar strategy has been employed by Qatar and Turkey.

In May 2025, President Donald Trump signed an agreement with Qatar for an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion during his visit to the country. Four months later, Turkish Airlines completed a deal to buy 225 Boeing planes following a White House meeting between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

“The actual execution is always in doubt, even if some of the investments do come through,” said Ruhe. “During Trump’s first term, Saudi Arabia announced nearly a half trillion dollars of deals and investments in the United States, but only a fraction of that ever came to fruition.

The kingdom’s economic situation, and its ability to invest nearly $1 trillion, is now less favorable than it was in Trump’s first term.” 

Experts noted that should the proposed investment fall through, it is highly unlikely to change the diplomatic relationship between Washington and Riyadh, nor would it have any consequential impact on the U.S. 

“Actual Saudi investment in things like AI and critical minerals supply chains would certainly be great for the United States, but it’s just as important for both countries to focus on advancing other aspects of the strategic partnership,” said Ruhe. “Especially regional collective defense against Iran and keeping Riyadh from becoming too close to Beijing and Moscow.”

Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt, the former U.S. envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, told Jewish Insider on Tuesday that she’s concerned by the increased pace of antisemitic rhetoric coming from Saudi Arabia, and warned that an extended change of course by Riyadh could have implications on the spread of antisemitism globally.

Lipstadt, who began in the role in May 2022, said that she saw the Saudi government initially very open to addressing antisemitism, but less willing to work with her toward the end of her term, which finished in January 2025. She said that the situation has appeared to deteriorate further since then.

“If this is a real pivot, and not just a momentary detour, it’ll be very disappointing,” Lipstadt said. If that’s the case, “then it’s very disturbing because there was a chance for a change in the culture and in the atmosphere of the Middle East.”

She said she sees antisemitic and extremist sermons recently delivered at Saudi holy sites and around the kingdom as particularly significant — noting the Saudi government also funds imams who preach around the globe. This support gives Riyadh a significant lever to “limit the amount of Jew hatred that is expressed in Muslim communities throughout the world.”

“This is more than just a geopolitical shift,” Lipstadt continued. “It’s that — and it’s certainly an important geopolitical shift — but it also has implications for the spread of hatred, Jew hate.”

The former U.S. ambassador said that she’s also seen a distinct shift in the tenor of translated articles from the Saudi press.

“It’s completely different from what I saw when I was there in July of 2022, and very different from the numerous conversations and interactions I had with Princess Reema, the Saudi ambassador to the United States,” Lipstadt said. “She could not have been more gracious and forthcoming, publicly so.”

The former envoy said that the timing of the Saudi shift is also troubling, noting that it comes as tensions in the region are otherwise easing, as the war in Gaza winds down and progress is made toward a longer-term ceasefire. The Saudi government, she noted, was subject to pressure from its public, which was upset over the war.

“It’s happening now, when things are quieting down — that’s worrisome,” Lipstadt explained. “I hope it can be turned around because it has very, very big implications. … At a time that we’re seeing the impact of radical Islamism, it’s even more troublesome.”

Lipstadt’s first trip abroad in her role in the Biden administration was to Saudi Arabia in June 2022, where she conveyed the “message that I saw real possibilities there.” She said that she came to believe that the Saudis were on a path to joining the Abraham Accords, and that she received “a very warm welcome,” including meetings with the minister of Islamic affairs, who is in charge of the country’s holy sites, and the Saudi deputy foreign minister.

“One high-ranking official, when I walked into his office, introduced himself to me. He said, ‘Hello, welcome. I come from a city of Jews,’ and he meant Medina,” Lipstadt recounted. “Mecca and Medina, where the prophet was, and grew up — that’s a pretty significant way of identifying yourself.”

Her second visit to the kingdom, toward the end of her term in office, “was less promising, less forthcoming on the part of the officials.”

She said it was difficult to gauge at the time whether that was due to a lack of interest in engaging with an outgoing administration or because of pressure from popular opinion in Saudi Arabia against the war in Gaza. 

But she said she believes the situation has continued to worsen since she left office. And, she noted, Saudi Arabia has made no further public strides toward joining the Abraham Accords, which some expected the kingdom to do once President Donald Trump returned to office.

Anti-Israel and antisemitic messages from Saudi regime mouthpieces and state-sanctioned media have increased in recent weeks, as Riyadh has pivoted away from a more moderate posture to an alignment with Islamist forces, such as Qatar and Turkey.

Over the weekend, prominent Saudi columnist Dr. Ahmed bin Othman Al-Tuwaijri wrote an article in a Saudi news site attacking the United Arab Emirates, with whom Saudi Arabia has been at odds in recent weeks, as “an Israeli Trojan horse in the Arab world … in betrayal of God, His Messenger and the entire nation.” He also wrote that “Israel is on a path to a rapid downfall and the umma will remain, God willing.”

The column, published after weeks of anti-Israel and antisemitic messaging from Saudi-backed channels, sparked an uproar from Western voices. The Anti-Defamation League condemned “the increasing frequency and volume of prominent Saudi voices … using openly antisemitic dog whistles and aggressively pushing anti-Abraham Accords rhetoric, often while peddling conspiracy theories about ‘Zionist plots.’”  

The Saudi site then took the article down. But when there was a backlash in the Arab world, it went back online. 

An editorial in the Saudi government newspaper Al-Riyadh earlier this month said that “wherever Israel is present, there is ruin and destruction,” and that Israel “do[es] not respect the sovereignty of states or the integrity of their territories, while working to exploit crises and conflicts to deepen divisions.” 

A conspiracy theory that has gained steam on Saudi social media in recent weeks accuses the UAE of trying to push for a “New Abrahamic Religion” melding Judaism, Christianity and Islam, thus destroying Islam, an apparent reference to the Abrahamic Family House — meant to foster religious tolerance. 

The shift in Saudi media comes after months in which imams at the Grand Mosque in Mecca, whose sermons are seen as reflecting official Saudi messages, have railed against Israel and the Jews. In a recent sermon, Sheikh Saleh bin Abdullah bin Humaid said, “Oh Allah, deal with the Jews who have seized and occupied, for they cannot escape your power. Oh Allah, send upon them your punishment and misery.” 

“I’m ringing the alarm; I’m breaking the glass,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said on the “Ask A Jew” podcast earlier this month. “I’m saying, listen, these guys are changing.”

Edy Cohen, a research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy, told Jewish Insider that the Saudi-backed Arabic news channel Al Arabiya is “very anti-Israel, they glorify the Palestinians,” though he stopped short of the characterization made by a prominent Israeli journalist last week that it has become worse than the Qatar-backed Al Jazeera.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said on the “Ask A Jew” podcast earlier this month that the Trump administration needs “to have a serious talk with” the Saudis.

“I’m ringing the alarm; I’m breaking the glass,” he said. “I’m saying, listen, these guys are changing.”

In the past, “you only got these crazy terrorist clerics, the al-Qaida types … would be inciting against the Jews,” Abdul-Hussain said. “But this week, the [Saudi] state-owned media was inciting against the Zionist plan to partition the region and to divide the region. This is very new.” 

Hussein Aboubakr Mansour, a researcher for the Z3 Project, noted in a recent interview on the “Tikvah Podcast” that the Saudi “interest is colliding with that of Israel in many places,” while “the interests of the Israeli and the Emiratis are converging in a lot of places,” leading Riyadh to lash out against both at the same time.

He noted a rise in “the Arabist discourse of Arab sovereignty, Arab unity, the Emiratis and Israelis want to fragment us.”

“[The Saudi leadership] heard [exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi] said the new Iran will normalize relations with Israel, and this drove the leadership crazy,” Edy Cohen, a research fellow at the Israel Center for Grand Strategy, told JI. “Imagine Iran and Israel together … the Shi’a and the Jews together; it’s their biggest nightmare.” 

One reason for the turn in Saudi messaging is that Riyadh is “very afraid of Israel,” Cohen said, noting that it views recent Israeli actions as going against Saudi interests.

Cohen noted that Saudi Arabia was mostly quiet about Tehran’s violent suppression of the recent nationwide demonstrations, but behind the scenes, “the Saudis and the Qataris led a campaign for Trump not to strike Iran.”

“[The Saudi leadership] heard [exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi] said the new Iran will normalize relations with Israel, and this drove the leadership crazy,” Cohen posited. “Imagine Iran and Israel together … the Shi’a and the Jews together; it’s their biggest nightmare.” 

Before that, Cohen said, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, which put Jerusalem on the UAE’s side against Somalia, angered Riyadh, a move he said led a diplomatic push for Arab states to condemn Israel. At the time, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Saudi sources said Israel recognizing Somaliland threatened its chances of normalization with Riyadh.

Israel and Saudi Arabia have also staked out opposing positions on Syria, where Riyadh supports President Ahmad al-Sharaa, while Israel has been much more hesitant to embrace the new Syrian leader and has acted militarily to protect the Druze Syrian minority near its border.

Cohen said Saudi Arabia would still be willing to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if it brought them a defense pact with the U.S., but “at a price no [Israeli] prime minister would be willing to pay.” 

Abdul-Hussain put Saudi’s pivot in the context of its failed regional ambitions. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, sought to move “from a country that has relied on oil for a living … to a country that looked like Dubai, where you have tourism and services, what they call a knowledge economy. … Israel is clearly one of the highest knowledge economies in the world.”

However, Abdul-Hussain said, “his experiment has just hit a wall and this transformation is not happening.” In an indicative development, MBS’ flagship project of a futuristic city on the Red Sea known as Neom has been scaled back following delays and budgetary limitations, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. 

Now, Abdul-Hussain said, “the quickest tool that [MBS] can get is to reconnect with the Islamists. … Look at Turkey and Qatar using Islamism all the time to project influence, including in Gaza … Washington clearly likes them for some reason, so [MBS is] thinking, why not use Islamism … as a tool to project power at Saudi’s borders? This means they will have to bash the heck out of Israel.”

With the continued talk about a possible American attack on Iran amid the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters, Aboubakr Mansour’s prediction in JI last year after the Israeli and American strikes on Iran remains relevant: He argued that the success of the 12-day war would not bring Jerusalem and Riyadh closer together, nor would regime change in Iran. A less extreme government in Tehran could grow closer to Washington, threatening the Saudi-American relationship. 

“They have an interest in Iran remaining the pariah that it is,” he said at the time. “The Saudis are in a place where they want to see neither the Israelis nor the Iranians win. [The Saudis] want them to put each other in check, which will give [the Saudis] more leverage.” 

Aboubakr Mansour told the “Tikvah Podcast” this month that he was “still shocked” by the Saudis’ “unbelievable pivot in terms of rhetoric, domestically and regionally, against Israel and the UAE.”

“The easiest way for them to [pivot away from Israel] is to insist on a Palestinian state, but that did not entail that, all of a sudden, they will recall a lot of Muslim Brotherhood figures from abroad … using their online channels to denounce the Zionists … getting closer to Turkey and Qatar. That itself, I was definitely shocked by,” he said. 

Now, Aboubakr Mansour said, after Saudi Arabia changed its messaging, “you saw a massive activation of this huge and colossal empire of narrative control that the Qataris run” — meaning Al Jazeera — “in favor of Saudi Arabia. …That’s a form of power, also, that has its own seduction, and I think the Saudis calculated that they have a very large symbolic comparative advantage that is best optimized to use this kind of populist anti-Zionist discourse in the Middle East.”

Saudi Arabia is recalibrating its regional posture in ways that are challenging long-held assumptions about Riyadh’s role as a moderating force in the Middle East, as recent moves across Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa expose the country’s widening rift with the United Arab Emirates and a growing alignment with Qatar and Turkey — two countries with openly hostile positions toward Israel.

The realignment has been most stark on the issue of Yemen, where Saudi Arabia led an airstrike on an Emirati shipment of vehicles on Tuesday which Riyadh claimed was intended for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has consolidated power in the country’s south as Saudi-backed efforts to stabilize the war-torn nation have stalled. Hours after the strike, the Emirati government announced it would withdraw its remaining troops from the country.

The Saudis’ decision to embrace Islamist-aligned factions in Sudan, where the UAE is aligned with rival forces, has caused additional fissures with the Emiratis, putting the two U.S. allies and Gulf power players at odds. 

The Gulf states have also taken opposite sides on Somalia, with the UAE quietly supportive of Somaliland, while Saudi Arabia condemned Israel for recognizing its independence and Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the move threatened the chances of Riyadh and Jerusalem establishing diplomatic relations. 

These actions, taken together, have raised questions about Riyadh’s role as a moderating force in the region and potential partner for normalization with Israel.

“Yes, Saudi Arabia is moving away from its position of recent years,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Jewish Insider on Tuesday. “Since [Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] came to power, he promised drastic change under the banner of ‘Saudi First.’”

Abdul-Hussain said that Saudi Arabia is “abandoning its past policy and distancing itself from the UAE and the moderate capitals and getting closer to Islamist Qatar and Turkey. … How far on the scale of Islamism the Saudis decide to go remains to be seen.” 

“There have been two alliances competing in the region: A radical Islamist one led by Turkey and Qatar and allied with Iran and Pakistan and a moderate one led by Israel and UAE and allied with India, Greece and Cyprus,” Abdul-Hussain said. “While America has friends on both sides, it is clear that American national interests are served by taking the side of Israel, the UAE, India and Greece coalition against the rival axis.”

Nervana Mahmoud, a political commentator based in the U.K., told JI that while “it’s very difficult to read the strategic decisions within the kingdom because they don’t announce plans … I noticed a shift in the Saudi [posture] from mid-2024.”

Mahmoud said that the Saudi-UAE divergence has also expanded because of the Saudi’s softened stance on Qatar, something she argued reflects the kingdom’s acknowledgement of Doha’s growing influence both in the region and globally, specifically pointing to Qatar’s positive standing with the Trump administration. 

“I see the Saudis saying, ‘We cannot defeat the Islamists, but we can influence [them], using them for strategic influence,’” Nervana Mahmoud, a political commentator based in the U.K., told JI. “They think they can influence Islamists rather than be fooled by them. Before Islamists were infiltrating Saudi, now Saudi thinks [they’re] powerful enough to influence and tame them to serve strategic interests. I see that as wishful thinking.”

Saudi Arabia has improved ties with Qatar, ending a blockade on Doha in 2021 and signing a deal earlier this month to link Riyadh and Doha with a high-speed rail. 

The UAE, meanwhile, has expressed concerns over Doha’s influence in Trump’s Gaza peace plan, including its potential role in post-war Gaza, as well as Qatar’s Islamist ties. 

“I see the Saudis saying, ‘We cannot defeat the Islamists, but we can influence [them], using them for strategic influence,’” Mahmoud told JI. “They think they can influence Islamists rather than be fooled by them. Before Islamists were infiltrating Saudi, now Saudi thinks [they’re] powerful enough to influence and tame them to serve strategic interests. I see that as wishful thinking.”

Mahmoud pointed to Saudi Arabia’s engagement in Syria where Riyadh has supported efforts to rehabilitate Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and encourage engagement with the Trump administration, despite Al-Sharaa’s Islamist background. Israel, meanwhile, has taken a more suspicious view of al-Sharaa and has thus far failed to secure a security agreement with Damascus. 

Another cause for concern has been the Saudis’ reticence to engage on joining the Abraham Accords, despite publicly expressing willingness to normalize relations with Israel on condition of the establishment of a pathway to Palestinian statehood and a ceasefire in Gaza. 

“Since 9/11, and especially since MBS came to power in 2015, Saudi Arabia made enormous effort to distance itself away from Muslim Brotherhood and Islamism,” Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said. Now, “Saudi is getting closer to all Islamist, anti-Israel, anti-West governments, whether it’s Iran and Pakistan or Qatar and Turkey.”

Mahmoud accused Riyadh of “playing the game” on the normalization issue, saying that the kingdom had continued to signal interest in joining the Abraham Accords while “always [having] an excuse not to.”

“The excuses will never end,” Mahmoud told JI of the Saudis, adding that the kingdom was “trying to be on the good side of [President Donald] Trump.”

Riyadh’s shift away from moderate Gulf states has also been marked by diverging views on how to approach the Muslim Brotherhood. While Qatar has long sponsored the Islamist movement’s actions, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have historically taken a harsher stance against the group, proscribing it as a terrorist organization, aligned with the Trump administration’s recent moves to do the same. 

“There was a period from 2017 to 2021 where the Saudis, Emiratis and Bahrainis completely isolated Qatar because they considered the Qataris as sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Muslim Brotherhood meant harm to the political systems in Saudi and UAE and Bahrain,” Edmun Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former British diplomat who served in Kuwait, told JI. 

Abdul-Hussain argued that there has been “some reversal” on Saudi Arabia’s reputation as a moderate actor on the brotherhood, creating a potentially concerning landscape for Israel and dampening efforts toward normalization.

“Since 9/11, and especially since MBS came to power in 2015, Saudi Arabia made enormous effort to distance itself away from Muslim Brotherhood and Islamism,” Abdul-Hussain said. Now, “Saudi is getting closer to all Islamist, anti-Israel, anti-West governments, whether it’s Iran and Pakistan or Qatar and Turkey.”

The members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition spent much of the weekend arguing over something on which they all ostensibly agree — opposition to a Palestinian state. 

They may have been expressing their long and openly held opinions, but the timing could be damaging, coming days before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to visit the White House. In the meeting, slated for Tuesday, President Donald Trump is expected to push for normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem — something the Saudis have long conditioned on tangible steps towards a Palestinian state.

The latest debate started with far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who recently apologized for saying the Saudis can “keep riding camels” rather than normalize ties with Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state. On Saturday night, Smotrich said that Netanyahu was responsible for a “dangerous” increase in pressure on Israel, criticizing the prime minister for not speaking up more forcefully after nearly a dozen countries recognized a Palestinian state earlier this year. “Immediately come up with an appropriate and decisive response that will make clear to the entire world that a Palestinian state will not be established in our homeland,” Smotrich wrote on X.

Next came Likud ministers. “Israel will not agree to the establishment of a terror state in the heart of the Land of Israel,” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar asserted. “Israel’s policy is clear: A Palestinian state will not be established,” chimed in Defense Minister Israel Katz.

The impetus for reiterating their position was the U.S.-proposed resolution at the United Nations Security Council backing Trump’s plan for Gaza and the formation of an International Stabilization Force, leading to a scenario in which “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.” 

It’s unclear where these Cabinet ministers were in late September, when Netanyahu signed onto Trump’s 20-step plan, which uses the exact same language.

The Saudis saw Netanyahu’s agreement to a horizon for Palestinian statehood as satisfying their demand for a step in that direction, an Israeli diplomatic source who frequently advises Netanyahu said earlier this month.

But the pressure from the right was such that Netanyahu said at the opening of Sunday’s cabinet meeting that “our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory west of the Jordan River exists and stands and has not changed at all.”

That apparent reversal of what Netanyahu agreed to less than two months ago could cause serious harm to Trump’s efforts to try to make Saudi Arabia the crown jewel of the Abraham Accords, a move that Netanyahu has long said would be greatly beneficial to Israel.

Elsewhere in Jerusalem, top opposition figures have sounded the alarm on the possibility of a Saudi domestic nuclear enrichment program and Riyadh purchasing F-35 planes. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that the government “lacks the ability to say ‘no.’ Faced with the initiative to establish a Palestinian state — silence. … Faced with those around us being armed with F-35s — silence.” Meanwhile, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told The Jerusalem Post, “There’s no indication that Israel’s qualitative edge will be compromised.”

While Netanyahu and his ministers have been silent on other expected elements of MBS’ planned visit to Washington, there have been behind-the-scenes efforts to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge is maintained. 

The question remains, then, if these incentives are removed or downgraded, whether the Saudis will still want to normalize relations with Israel.

Former Deputy National Security Advisor Dina Powell McCormick said on Tuesday that recent regional reforms and alliances, including the 2020 Abraham Accords, have been instrumental in the Middle East’s development and its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks and ensuing war in Gaza.

“I think we are moving too fast sometimes, and don’t pause on how critical it is that even after October 7, not one of the signatories of that peace treaty got out,” Powell McCormick said in comments made at the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. “And I believe it’s thanks to President [Donald] Trump, thanks to Jared Kushner, thanks to [Special Envoy] Steve Witkoff, the reason that we saw the ceasefire happen, the release of the hostages and Inshallah, God-willing, a more stable Gaza so the humanitarian suffering can end.” 

“I think it’s because, in many ways, the seeds were planted to have last week that announcement not just by the United States, but over 50 countries, again, from Egypt and Jordan, the Emiratis, the Qataris, the Turks, the Pakistanis,” Powell McCormick continued. “This is remarkable.”

Powell McCormick, who served in the first Trump administration and is now vice chairman and president of global client services at BDT-MSD, reflected on a trip to the region nearly a decade ago while working for the White House. “I think if you had told us then that nine years later, you would have seen the economic, social and political gains and transformation that we have seen,” she said, “it would have been hard to believe economically … it would have been hard to imagine that this kingdom and this region of the world is now the dominant source of capital for innovation, the dominant source of capital for the change that we’re witnessing in every industry, artificial intelligence, biotech, robotics, longevity.”