Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) comfortably prevailed in New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last night, translating strong fundraising and backing from numerous party leaders into a double-digit margin of victory in the six-candidate field. With most of the ballots tallied, Sherrill won just over one-third of the Democratic vote.

Sherrill, a pragmatic suburban lawmaker and military veteran, will face Republican former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli in the November general election. Boosted by President Donald Trump’s endorsement, Ciattarelli easily won the GOP nomination.

Sherrill continues the trend of moderate-minded candidates prevailing in recent Democratic primary fights. Three of her Democratic opponents ran to the congressman’s left, with left-wing Newark Mayor Ras Baraka even getting arrested at a federal immigration facility. That activist messaging didn’t end up winning him much traction in the race.

Baraka’s anti-Israel record and past praise of Louis Farrakhan concerned Jewish leaders, but he ultimately finished well behind Sherrill, in second place with 20% of the vote.

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) ran to the center in the race, spent heavily and worked hard to win over the significant Jewish vote in the state, landing key endorsements from several Orthodox groups. But aside from handily winning his home county of Bergen, he struggled to make inroads in other parts of New Jersey, tallying 12% of the vote. (In Ocean County, where the congressman picked up a key endorsement of the Lakewood Vaad, he lagged in third place.)

Sherrill has compiled a largely pro-Israel record during her time in Congress, and called for more action against antisemitism in the aftermath of the murder of Israeli Embassy staffers outside the Capital Jewish Museum. But she hasn’t been as outspoken as Gottheimer on issues affecting the Jewish community, and declined interview requests from Jewish Insider during the last month of the campaign to more fully discuss her views on antisemitism. 

Ciattarelli also spoke out against antisemitism on the campaign trail, and touted his visit to Israel last summer as he campaigned in Lakewood.

The November general election will offer the first test of whether Trump’s significant gains in the Garden State in last year’s presidential election will hold now that he’s been in office for months — or whether there’s an emerging backlash to his polarizing governance. Trump only lost the once solidly-blue state to then-Vice President Kamala Harris by six points, a much narrower margin than Democrats anticipated.

Ciattarelli ran against outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, in 2021, and also ran a surprisingly competitive race against the incumbent, losing by just three points. 

As New Jersey’s competitive gubernatorial primary takes place today, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) looks like the front-runner in the crowded Democratic field but without much public polling and a late flurry of advertising, there’s still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to who will emerge as the nominee in the six-way race.  

Sherrill, a military veteran who has represented a suburban north New Jersey seat since 2018, is the favorite of many Democratic Party officials and has been leading in the limited public polling of the race. The congresswoman has also been one of the top fundraisers in the field, along with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), who has been courting support from the state’s sizable Jewish community.

“Josh has been betting on the Jewish community coming out strong, and there is a realistic possibility that if new voters emerge in places like Lakewood, which is the fifth-largest city in New Jersey now, it could play a decisive role,” one Jewish community activist, who asked to remain anonymous to discuss the primary, told Jewish Insider on Monday. 

But even as Gottheimer won a key endorsement last month from the Lakewood Vaad, an influential coalition of rabbis from the state’s largest Orthodox Jewish community, other observers expressed some skepticism that the moderate congressman’s strategy of consolidating Jewish support will be enough for him to prevail in the primary to replace Gov. Phil Murphy, a term-limited Democrat.

“I just don’t know if it’s going to be able to be enough to give him the edge,” said Shlomo Schorr, the director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office. “It was maybe a bit too late to get the turnout that they had wanted and needed.”

Though Schorr said that Gottheimer’s strong showing in early voting so far in major Orthodox communities such as Teaneck and Lakewood could peel support away from Sherrill, he also speculated that it could help to fuel another candidate, Steve Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, running as a progressive-minded anti-establishment challenger. 

Fulop, a Jewish Democrat whose campaign is appealing to progressive, younger voters, has said “every single person has a pathway to win.” He has faced backlash from Jewish leaders for opposing legislation to enshrine the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s working definition of antisemitism into state law, though he later walked back his remarks in a mailer aimed at Jewish voters.

Ras Baraka, the mayor of Newark whose coalition in some ways overlaps with Fulop, has experienced a late surge thanks largely to his high-profile arrest last month outside an immigration detention facility in New Jersey, even as his record of commentary on key issues such as Israel and antisemitism has raised concerns among many Jewish leaders in the state.

The other Democrats in the primary include Stephen Sweeney, a moderate who served as president of the state Senate, and Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association who has drawn significant outside support from a super PAC spending more than $8 million to boost his campaign. 

Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman backed by President Donald Trump, is favored to clinch the Republican nomination. He came close to unseating Murphy in 2021, winning Lakewood in the process. The Vaad has also endorsed his campaign this cycle.

The results of the Democratic primary are more volatile, particularly without the so-called county line that had bestowed establishment-backed candidates with preferential ballot placement.

“With no line, all bets are off,” said a Jewish activist who is not taking sides in the race, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address the primary. “It’s all turnout. I still think it’s Mikie’s to lose. Her team is confident, as is the candidate. But I guess they all are.”