After a tumultuous decade in American politics, both major parties are undergoing ideological and generational shifts that are likely to redefine America’s standing in the world — and its relationship with Israel.

On the left, a new generation of lawmakers from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, many with more critical views of Israel than those who came before them, is making gains in major cities, state capitals and on Capitol Hill. On the right, the ascendance of the isolationist MAGA movement and the decline in support for Israel among younger evangelical Christians, traditionally a bastion of support for the Jewish state, is challenging what has long been traditional, unequivocal GOP support for Israel.

Longtime observers of the U.S.-Israel relationship with whom JI spoke over the weekend expressed concern that Jerusalem has not developed a strategic long-term approach to deal with the emerging political realities in the U.S.

When asked if he believed there’s a serious effort in Jerusalem to address the longterm political challenges in the U.S., former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren was succinct: “I do not.”

The U.S.-Israel relationship, Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, told JI on Sunday, “has never been in bigger trouble.” What’s so significant about this moment, he said, is that “the erosion is happening in both parties.”

In the past, Halevi explained, “we could always rely on one party or the other to bail us out. And of course, in the past, it was usually the Democrats, and the fact that the erosion is now beginning in the Republican Party should be sending major, major alarms in Jerusalem, but I don’t see any indication of that.” 

Former Knesset member Einat Wilf told JI that the warning signs had been evident for years, and that she had pushed for conversations on the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship when Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) began to criticize Israel. “I remember at the time I started talking with people,” Wilf recalled, “And I told them, ‘Look, if I’m Israel, then I’m putting [together] a team now. Doesn’t have to be overt, but I’m putting [together] a team now that begins to plan for a world where we don’t have such strong support.’”

Wilf said that the idea of Rep.Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a future president, which would have been “a fringe scenario not long a time ago,” is no longer such a long shot. “Now, it’s almost the mainstream scenario. So we need to take that into consideration. We need to look at it as at least a serious or likely scenario.”

The problem, Halevi said, is that Israel’s government is not thinking long term. “It’s all day-to-day, and it’s all tactical, and it’s not strategic. What happens after Trump and Netanyahu? Scorched earth, as far as [Netanyahu is] concerned. So there’s no one in the government thinking seriously about the relationship with Washington, because he didn’t allow that. It all has to go through him. It goes through him and [Strategic Affairs Minister Ron] Dermer.”

America’s shifting political winds “are not existential issues for Israel, but they’re very, very serious strategic issues for Israel,” Oren said.

Much of the concern from the activist wings of both parties in recent months has been about U.S. military support for Israel amid the IDF’s campaign in Gaza. Lawmakers on the far left and far right have advocated for rolling back military support for Israel. But that sentiment is being to percolate into the mainstream — note former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s opposition earlier this month to a new Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Israel, ahead of the current MOU’s expiration in 2028.  

Oren had suggested in 2021 a rethinking of U.S. military aid to Israel, from a traditional “donor-to-recipient” model to “a collaborative relationship based on both countries’ interests and strengths.” That sort of cooperation, he suggested at the time, “would bring immediate benefits to American and Israeli security and strengthen their abilities to counter common threats.”

Such a redefined military relationship with the U.S. would likely serve to combat concerns from the isolationist branch of the GOP over entrenchment in foreign conflicts at a time when such engagement is unpopular among the MAGA wing of the party. And it would address, to some degree, concerns from progressive Democrats, some of whom are pushing the “Block the Bombs” bill to end the U.S.’ sale of offensive weapons to Israel.

But ultimately, Israel is at its best strategically and militarily when it gives itself time and runway to prepare for future challenges and threats. Its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah have underscored the results of Israel’s long-term planning: Hezbollah’s dismantlement as a serious threat came swiftly and as the result of years of preparation, while, nearly two years after the start of the Israel’s war in Gaza, Hamas remains in power, holding both Israelis and the entire enclave hostage as Israel fights an elusive threat on the ground and a losing battle for public opinion around the world.

Those with whom JI spoke agreed that taking on an evolvingU.S. political reality now will help future Israeli governments address the long-term challenges facing the U.S.-Israel relationship.

“We’re a crisis-oriented society. That’s partly our strength, that helps us cope, because we don’t think too far in advance,” Halevi said. “It helps us. It keeps us from getting too depressed. But the downside is that you don’t have the kind of serious, strategic conversations that we desperately need, and certainly we should be having those conversations now about what happens after Trump, what happens if we find ourselves stranded without any major party to rely on.”