A new poll from a leading Democratic pollster finds Democrats broadly support the ceasefire and hostage-release deal reached between Israel and Hamas and a majority of them think President Donald Trump played at least a “somewhat important role” in reaching the agreement.

The poll, released Monday by the Democratic Majority for Israel and conducted by the Mellman Group, surveying 800 Democrats between Oct. 15-26 with a 4.9% margin of error, found an overwhelming share (72%) of Democrats favored the Trump peace plan when all aspects of the agreement were spelled out.

Details provided about the first phase included Hamas returning all of the hostages, alive and dead, and Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners, as well as an influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The poll described the second phase as disarming Hamas, economic redevelopment in Gaza and “setting the conditions for a pathway to Palestinian statehood.” 

Respondents favored the plan at 72% with only 4% opposed. 

The description did not specify that Hamas has slow-walked the release of the hostage bodies, which it was meant to return shortly after the deal was reached, only saying that “While there have been flare-ups of violence, spokesmen from both sides have said they are still trying to make the agreement work.” 

Almost all Democrats (83%) said the deal is an important achievement. Fifty-six percent called it a “very important” achievement, with majorities across all ideological, age, gender and race categories.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said Trump played at least a somewhat important role in securing the deal, with 31% of them calling his role “very important.” Trump remained universally unpopular with those Democrats polled, holding an unfavorability rating of 92%.

A majority of the Democrats polled (56%) said they believe that the U.S. should keep its alliance with Israel, though only 32% felt so “strongly.” Three-quarters (75%) said they support Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish homeland, with 12% saying they don’t believe Israel has a right to exist.

A new Quinnipiac poll of the New York City mayoral race with less than a week until Election Day shows Zohran Mamdani on track to win, but with a narrow plurality that underscores the breadth and resilience of the political opposition against him. In short, he’s set to prevail thanks to a divided opposition and backing from an enthusiastic left-wing faction of the electorate — not because he’s winning over hearts and minds in Gotham.

If the polling is accurate, Mamdani would be the first New York City mayor to win without a majority of the vote since John Lindsay in 1969. Mamdani leads former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo 43-33% in the Quinnipiac poll, with Republican Curtis Sliwa tallying 14%. Mamdani, in a sign of his political ceiling, has lost several points of support since the pollster’s survey earlier this month. 

Among Sliwa voters, 55% said that Cuomo was their second choice, while only 7% said the same of Mamdani. If New York City utilized a ranked-choice voting system as it did in the primary, this race would be neck-and-neck.

The Quinnipiac poll finds Mamdani building an unconventional coalition of secular progressives and Muslims in New York City politics, running up the score with voters of no religion (71% support) or of a religion other than Christianity and Judaism (50%). Mamdani struggles badly with Jewish voters, winning just 16% support, while only receiving 28% of the vote among Catholics and 36% among Protestants. 

Mamdani is winning support from just 59% of Democrats, with 31% backing Cuomo — an unusually weak showing for a Democratic nominee. But Republicans are evenly divided between Cuomo and Sliwa, preventing the former governor from capitalizing on Mamdani’s deep unpopularity with GOP voters. Mamdani is tied with Cuomo among independents at 34% apiece. 

There are some indications that the late wave of negative attacks Cuomo has aimed at Mamdani — invoking his embrace of a controversial imam, raising questions about his commitments to fighting Islamic extremism and his ties to antisemitic influencer Hasan Piker — have dented the front-runner’s favorability a bit. Mamdani’s +4 favorability rating in the Quinnipiac poll (45-41%) is a notch worse than his +8 favorability rating (45-37%) in Quinnipiac’s early October poll. 

But Cuomo’s favorability remains decidedly worse, with a 54% majority viewing the former governor unfavorably and 34% viewing him favorably. Cuomo resigned from the governorship amid scandal and allegations of sexual misconduct.

The results suggest that an earlier and more aggressive attack against Mamdani from a better-organized anti-Mamdani coalition could have paid dividends. If the opposition hit Mamdani on his vulnerabilities on crime and safety — especially given his recent tone-deaf comments on the 9/11 terror attack — it could plausibly have laid out a more effective narrative that he’s too extreme to lead the nation’s biggest city.  

But the last-minute nature of the Cuomo attacks feel more like the equivalent of a Hail Mary pass at the end of a football game. 

The one silver lining for Cuomo: There’s only a week of early voting in New York City, and because of the exorbitant cost of airing on New York City television, the swarm of campaign ads doesn’t hit full force until the campaign’s final weeks. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for the first time in the general election, donated $1.5 million to a pro-Cuomo super PAC, an indicator he sees the race getting closer. 

That means that even though Mamdani remains the clear favorite, Cuomo still has a narrow path to a political comeback if he can convince enough Republican Sliwa voters to quietly cast a vote for him to stop the democratic socialist. 

A new poll of young conservatives between the ages of 18-34 commissioned by the Washington Free Beacon shows that Gen Z Republicans are decidedly more supportive of Israel than their liberal counterparts, but that there is a notable faction of those who take a more critical view towards the Jewish state. 

The Echelon Insights poll also found that anti-Israel and antisemitic podcasters like Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens are viewed favorably by this right-wing cohort — even among many of the respondents who say they support Israel and recognize antisemitism is a problem. 

Carlson’s favorability rating among these Gen Z conservatives, for instance, is 50%, with only 11% viewing him unfavorably. Owens has a similarly strong 49/14% favorability rating. The Holocaust-denying podcaster Darryl Cooper isn’t nearly as well-known, but is viewed positively by those who listen to him, holding a 26/8% favorability rating.

At the same time, pro-Israel podcasters like Ben Shapiro are also viewed very favorably; Shapiro’s favorability rating with this cohort is 50/16%. Fox News host Mark Levin isn’t quite as well-known, but holds a stellar 29/7% favorability rating. Asked about “Jews” generally, half of respondents hold a favorable view with only 12% holding an unfavorable opinion.

The encouraging news? A number of these podcast listeners are tuning in to these transgressive shows featuring conspiracy theories, anti-Israel views and some antisemitism, but many are not being persuaded by them. For all their vitriolic attacks against the Jewish state, 54% of Carlson’s viewers and 58% of Owens’ audience have a favorable view towards Israel.

But the gloomier finding is that a notable minority on the right holds bigoted views towards Jews and is critical of Israel. Between 20-25% of these Gen Z conservatives consistently express anti-Israel or antisemitic views — while support for Israel is not nearly as widespread as it is among older conservatives. While 40% of respondents said they side with Israel in its current conflict, about one-fifth (22%) said they side with the Palestinians. About the same percentage of Gen Z conservatives said they agree that “Israel is a colonizer built on the suffering of others.”

A similar share of these respondents also answered in the affirmative when asked about several antisemitic beliefs or conspiracy theories. For example, 20% said they believed that Israel was behind the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, while 21% said they believed that Americans who served in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) should lose their American citizenship. 

Other notable findings from the survey? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s favorability rating among these young conservatives is only 25/19%, much lower than his standing (in other polls) with all Republicans. Interestingly, Zohran Mamdani, the far-left Democratic nominee for New York City mayor, holds above-water favorability among these conservatives at 19/18%. It’s another data point illustrating the “horseshoe theory” where the far left and far right have a surprising amount of views in common.

The glue holding the Gen Z conservatives together is their support for President Donald Trump, who maintains a very strong 78/17% favorability rating. Trump’s stalwart support for Israel, undoubtedly, is a major factor behind most young Republicans continuing to side with the Jewish state despite the pockets of disapproval within.

But the poll also suggests the potential for fissures to emerge after Trump’s passage from the political scene in 2028, with the presence of a younger, podcast and social media-fueled faction that holds radically different views towards Jews and Israel than their older counterparts. 

A new poll commissioned by a left-wing advocacy group is raising hopes among progressive activists eager to enlist a challenger to take on Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), a pro-Israel Democrat whose House district leans heavily to the left, in next year’s June primary election.

The poll, released this week by Demand Progress Action, shows Brad Lander, the New York City comptroller, leading by 19 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Goldman, who wins just 33% of the vote. Lander, who served as a longtime city councilman in the district, claims 52% among likely Democratic primary voters, while also boasting a higher favorability rating, according to the poll.

While the survey was meant to coax Lander into entering the primary, it remains unclear if he has the appetite to compete in what would likely be a bitter race for the seat covering Lower Manhattan and a swath of Brooklyn, including such progressive enclaves as Park Slope.

Lander, a well-known progressive who has not explicitly ruled out a congressional bid after losing in the New York City mayoral primary, is more widely expected to accept a senior role in a potential administration of Zohran Mamdani, the far-left Democratic nominee for mayor whose upset in June lent renewed energy to progressive activists who have eyed challenges to several mainstream House Democrats in New York City.

Still, Lander had been looking at Goldman’s seat since before the primary concluded, according to a political consultant familiar with the situation, who suggested the city comptroller could be “serious” about a campaign.

Lander’s team, several members of which have joined Mamdani’s campaign, has also reportedly clashed with the nominee’s aides, fueling speculation about his prospects for securing a position in a potential future administration. A person familiar with some of the internal tensions said broadly that they stem in part from a lingering Brooklyn political dispute involving Lander and grudgingly recalled by some close aides to Mamdani.

“I think that Lander can beat Goldman, but I thought that even before the poll came out,” said a political consultant who worked to elect Goldman during his first primary in 2022, when the former Trump impeachment prosecutor beat a crowded field of progressives to clinch the nomination with a plurality of the vote.

A spokesperson for Lander did not respond to a request for comment from Jewish Insider on his plans for a challenge. His team has otherwise said that “there is no drama between Brad and Zohran or their ‘camps.’”

If Lander chooses to run for the seat held by Goldman, a two-term Jewish Democrat whose strong support for Israel and refusal to endorse Mamdani have sparked backlash among left-wing voters, he would be a formidable candidate, experts say, citing his widespread popularity in a district he has long called home.

“I think that Lander can beat Goldman, but I thought that even before the poll came out,” said a political consultant who worked to elect Goldman during his first primary in 2022, when the former Trump impeachment prosecutor beat a crowded field of progressives to clinch the nomination with a plurality of the vote.

The potential matchup would also set up a unique primary between two Jewish Democrats who both identify as Zionists but have differing approaches to what that label means, particularly in the aftermath of Hamas Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the ensuing war in Gaza.

Goldman, for his part, has continued to back U.S. military aid to Israel, even as he recently said the “crisis in Gaza shocks the conscience” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “personal and political interests are guiding Israel’s actions, rather than what is best for” the Jewish state.

The 49-year-old lawmaker has also withheld an endorsement of Mamdani until he takes “concrete steps” to address concerns raised by Jewish voters over his anti-Israel rhetoric, including his refusal to explicitly condemn calls to “globalize the intifada,” a phrase many Jews view as antisemitic. Mamdani has said he does not use the slogan and that he will discourage its usage.

Goldman’s largely left-leaning House seat “is probably one of the biggest changes in terms of pro-Israel to not pro-Israel districts in the city,” said Chris Coffey, a veteran Democratic strategist who lives in the district and helped advise former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid during the primary.

Lander, who has long identified as a progressive Zionist, is a vocal critic of Israel’s war in Gaza and has called for pulling aid to Israel. The 56-year-old comptroller has faced criticism from the organized Jewish community for divesting from Israel bonds while in office, though he has said the decision was not political. Lander was a key Jewish validator for Mamdani in the primary, cross-endorsing with the 33-year-old democratic socialist and assemblyman from Queens. Mamdani won Goldman’s district in June.

Speaking at a Jews for Racial and Economic Justice event earlier this week, Lander said he had not done enough “to speak out against Israel’s war crimes, against ethnic cleansing, against forced starvation of Palestinians.”

Chris Coffey, a veteran Democratic strategist who lives in the district and helped advise former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s mayoral bid during the primary, said that Goldman is not likely to find himself in a vulnerable position unless Lander chooses to run, an outcome he does not anticipate with Mamdani well poised to win the general election.

Still, Goldman is now in a “precarious place,” Coffey told JI, “where he’s a pro-Israel Democrat in a time when it’s been harder to be a pro-Israel Democrat.”

Goldman’s largely left-leaning House seat “is probably one of the biggest changes in terms of pro-Israel to not pro-Israel districts in the city,” he added, noting the shift had occurred in recent years amid growing Democratic divisions over Israel and Gaza.

Some observers recently speculated that Goldman could switch districts and run for retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) seat further north in Manhattan, where he would likely face a more friendly electorate. But his team has dismissed that idea as unfounded and said Goldman had no plans to run for another seat.   

“Dan Goldman isn’t a moderate, he’s definitely left of center,” said the political consultant close to Goldman, who is now working on a super PAC to oppose Mamdani. “Brad may win because of his name ID and reputation but any other opponent would likely lose.”

The poll released on Wednesday underscored that view, showing that Goldman would win with 41% of the vote against an unnamed Democratic candidate. His lead evaporated after the poll had, among other things, linked him to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, which had quietly funded a local super PAC three years ago to help boost his first primary bid.

AIPAC, whose political arm endorsed Goldman in February, did not return a request for comment on a potential primary.

“Dan is laser-focused on rooting out government corruption, defending our democracy from Donald Trump and leveling the playing field for all New Yorkers.” Simone Kanter, a senior advisor to Goldman, told JI. “Anyone who would like to throw their hat in the ring is more than welcome to.”

David Greenfield, a former city councilman who leads the Jewish anti-poverty group Met Council, said the results of the poll were unsurprising, even as he dismissed the survey for posing a “misleading” question. “Everyone knows Brad is not running for Congress,” he told JI, “because he’s slated to join a Zohran Mamdani administration.”

It was unclear if the poll had surveyed respondents about other potential candidates. Demand Progress Action did not return requests for comment, nor did Data for Progress, a progressive firm that conducted the poll.

Simone Kanter, a senior advisor to Goldman, told JI the congressman’s team is “not paying any attention to agenda-driven push polls.”

“Dan is laser-focused on rooting out government corruption, defending our democracy from Donald Trump and leveling the playing field for all New Yorkers.” Kanter said on Thursday. “Anyone who would like to throw their hat in the ring is more than welcome to.”

While a competitive primary would likely attract spending from outside groups, Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune whose estimated net worth is up to $250 million, could also self-fund his bid as he did in 2022 — when he prevailed with 26% of the vote in a crowded field of well-known politicians. 

Yuh-Line Niou, a former state assemblywoman who came in second in 2022 with 24%, has said privately she plans to run again and has been making calls to feel out support, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Niou, an outspoken progressive who faced backlash in the last race for backing the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel, declined to comment on the record when reached this week by JI. 

Goldman is also likely to face a repeat challenger from his 2024 primary, Evan Hutchison, who won 24% of the vote last cycle and has recently sent out fundraising texts saying that the incumbent “won’t condemn Israel’s genocide in Gaza.” But strategists said they do not see his campaign as a serious threat to Goldman, who claimed 66% in his last primary.

A new Siena poll of New York voters illustrates the unpopularity of the state’s leading political figures in the runup to this year’s mayoral contest and next year’s gubernatorial election. Of particular note is the surging dissatisfaction among many Democratic voters towards elected leaders from their own party.

In the poll, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hits his all-time low in popularity, with just 38% of New Yorkers viewing him favorably and 50% viewing him unfavorably. His favorability with Democratic voters took a slight downturn since the last Siena survey in April, with just 49% of voters in his own party viewing him favorably.

Among Jewish voters, a narrow 52% majority of New York Jews viewed him favorably, with 43% rating him unfavorably.  

Schumer doesn’t face reelection until 2028, but amid the wave of anti-establishment sentiment within the Democratic Party, the numbers suggest he could face a credible primary threat if he pursues a sixth term.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is up for reelection in 2030, also faces a mixed political picture. Her favorability rating is, like every other New York elected official, underwater. But her overall numbers, with 36% viewing her favorably and 38% viewing her unfavorably, are better than nearly all of her counterparts. She’s also the most popular politician among Jewish voters, with 54% viewing her favorably and only 27% viewing her unfavorably.

There’s a notable disconnect between Gov. Kathy Hochul’s job approval rating and favorability rating; more New Yorkers are satisfied with her performance in office than like her personally. Hochul’s job approval rating stands at 53%, with 42% disapproving. But only 42% of New Yorkers view her favorably, while 44% view her unfavorably.

In an early test of a likely 2026 general election matchup between Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Hochul leads 45-31%. In that matchup, Jewish voters would divide nearly evenly, with 45% backing Hochul and 42% supporting Stefanik, according to the poll.

Stefanik’s favorability rating statewide is 27%, with 32% viewing her unfavorably — a respectable showing for a Trump-aligned Republican in a solidly blue state. By comparison, a clear majority of New Yorkers (56%) view President Donald Trump unfavorably, with only 37% viewing him favorably.

The survey also breaks out New York City voters for a ballot test of this year’s mayoral race. It finds Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani leading with 44%, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 25%, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 12% and Mayor Eric Adams lagging behind at 7%. 

The new poll suggests that Adams’ support has cratered in recent weeks, as Cuomo seeks to consolidate moderates into his camp ahead of the general election. But underscoring the difficulty Cuomo faces, his 29/61% statewide rating is the worst net unfavorability of any of the politicians tested — including Trump and Adams.

Of note: Among Jewish voters in New York state, Mamdani’s numbers are historically dismal. A whopping 75% view the far-left candidate unfavorably, with just 15% viewing him favorably.

A new Gallup poll underscores the degree to which Israel’s security is now dependent on support from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, the Jewish state having drained much of its political capital from both Democrats and independents amid the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis.

The numbers are clear: Support for Israel is now becoming a partisan issue after the Jewish state enjoyed decades of bipartisan support in the United States. Anti-Israel activists on the left, looking to exploit the moment, are working to win over Democratic lawmakers to their side — and are finding some unlikely allies moving in their direction amid the sustained pressure.

The data is sobering: Only about one-third of Americans now support Israel’s military action in Gaza, with 60% disapproving. At the beginning of the war, exactly half of Americans supported Israel’s war against Hamas. The drop-off has come entirely from Democrats (36% supported in November 2023, while 8% do now) and independents (47% supported in November 2023 while 25% support now). 

Among Republicans, however, support for Israel’s military efforts has remained significant. The exact same share of Republicans who backed Israel’s war against Hamas in November 2023 (71%) continue to support Israel’s efforts today. Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities has, if anything, bolstered GOP support for Israel and undermined the isolationist and small anti-Israel faction within the party.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close relationship with Trump, a partnership that has led to major policy successes, like the successful, coordinated attacks against Iran’s nuclear program, has nonetheless also played a role in the growing partisanship. Netanyahu, for the first time, is viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans — with Democrats now registering more overt disapproval of the Israeli leader since Trump reentered office.

The Gallup polling shows there was already soft support for Israel among Democrats before the war began, with majorities of Democrats opposed to the Jewish state’s efforts at self-defense just weeks after the Oct. 7 attacks. That said, a clear majority of Democratic lawmakers maintained their support for Israel’s war against Hamas, with only a relatively small faction calling for ceasefires before Hamas’ leadership and terror infrastructure could be degraded.

But there are signs that some of the more mainstream voices are succumbing to the anti-Israel shifts within the party’s base. Over half of Senate Democrats supported a Bernie Sanders-led resolution last night that would block U.S. arms sales to Israel — up from the 15 Democrats who voted for a similar measure back in April.  Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a pragmatic Democratic senator, who was absent for the vote, sounded open to cutting off “offensive” military aid to Israel. Sen. Angus King (I-ME), a pro-Israel independent who caucuses with Democrats, changed his tune and called for ending all military aid to Israel this week.

What’s alarming is how some of this consuming anti-Israel sentiment among Democrats is showing some signs of evolving into, at least, a tolerance of antisemitism. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro received blowback from the left for simply calling out New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani over failing to condemn “globalize the intifada” rhetoric. Slotkin felt the need, while on an anti-Israel podcast, to pander that she’s a Jewish senator who wasn’t backed by Jewish groups. Progressive spaces are becoming increasingly inhospitable to Jews, at least those who don’t renounce their support for a Jewish state.

The many liberal-minded, pro-Israel Jewish Democrats have felt increasingly homeless politically as a result of the shifts within the party — and the accommodation of views that, until very recently, have been beyond the political pale. If the party’s reaction to its 2024 defeat is to tack even further leftward and alienate core parts of their coalition, it could well be lurching towards its own McGovern moment in the future.

A newly released CNN poll, conducted this month, illustrates the resilience of a hawkish DNA within the Republican Party and among its voters even amid the rise of an isolationist strain that has sought to gain influence in the GOP during President Donald Trump’s second term.

The poll asked respondents: “Do you think the United States should or should not take the leading role among all other countries in the world in trying to solve international problems?” Overall, 43% took the more active approach, while 56% took a more isolationist view.

Republicans, however, remained the strongest advocates of a muscular American role in world affairs, with 52% supporting America taking a leading role and 47% opposed. By contrast, just 42% of Democrats and 39% of independents shared the more hawkish worldview.

Notably, the shift in more isolationist sentiment was almost entirely driven by Democrats and independents since the last CNN survey in March, which found majority support for significant American global engagement. In the March survey, a 57% majority of Democrats preferred more American involvement in the world, a number that dropped 15 points in the last four months. The Republican share of those preferring American engagement remained steady at 52%.

The results from the CNN polls suggest there’s a more committed core of Republican-voting hawks that is more resilient than the shifting political winds, whereas the Democratic foreign policy worldview appears more dependent on partisanship and what’s happening in the news at the time. 

In March, at the time of the first CNN poll, Democrats showed a surge of support for foreign engagement — in large part, because they were responding to the hostile reception Trump delivered at the time to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was seeking American military aid to his country. Back then, Trump wrongly blamed Zelensky for causing the war, and attacked him as a dictator in the run-up to the ugly confrontation at the White House. It was the high point of isolationism in Trump’s second term — and prompted an uptick of hawkishness among Democrats.

But since then, Trump has sharpened his rhetoric against Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to send Ukraine offensive weapons, in a reversal of his previous reluctance. He also decided to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities despite alarmism from an isolationist faction within his party, which turned out to be a major military (and political) success. 

A recent Echelon Insights survey underscored that Trump’s hawkish turn has broadened and deepened support for strongly supporting American allies within the party. A clear 49-36% of Trump voters, asked if they supported continuing to give weapons to Ukraine, said yes. When informed that it was Trump’s decision to aid Ukraine further, nearly two-thirds of Trump supporters embraced the decision.

The actions on Capitol Hill are consistent with the polling. When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) proposed a series of amendments cutting off aid to foreign allies, the vast majority of Republicans voted against them. Even on her proposal to cut military aid for Ukraine, 141 of the 217 House Republicans took the pro-Ukraine side. 

And when Greene proposed to block missile defense funding that the U.S. gives to Israel, only one other Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), joined her. Indeed, there were more Democrats who joined with MTG (four) than Republicans — in a sign of the “horseshoe theory” of the far left and far right uniting in their extremism.

Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear program appears to have created a momentum shift within the party, pushing back the faction of isolationists seeking to gain influence in the administration but also building support for a familiar brand of muscular engagement that has defined the party for generations.