With his path to victory narrowing in the closing stretch of New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) had placed his hopes for a come-from-behind win on the state’s sizable Jewish community, a politically active voting bloc he saw as a crucial part of his coalition in a crowded race with overlapping constituencies and likely low turnout.

The moderate Jewish Democrat worked to court Jewish voters by touting his pro-Israel record and commitment to fighting antisemitism. Weeks before the election, he received a promising endorsement from the Lakewood Vaad, a coalition of influential Orthodox rabbis. The group, which represents the state’s largest Orthodox bloc, has not traditionally taken sides in primaries but urged Democratic as well as unaffiliated voters to back Gottheimer, promising to deliver thousands of voters he and his allies saw as one of their best chances to make the difference in a close race.

In the end, however, the veteran congressman came in fourth place in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, losing to a fellow House member, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), by 22 points, even as she had claimed only a third of the vote in the six-way race.

Gottheimer’s poor overall performance across the state came in spite of relatively strong turnout in Lakewood, where he won more than 5,000 votes from the Orthodox community, including several unaffiliated backers, according to Shlomo Schorr, director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office.

With nearly 3,000 registered Democrats in the Orthodox community in Lakewood, Gottheimer’s Vaad endorsement helped him secure those votes and to claim additional support from unaffiliated residents, though hardly as many as his allies had hoped to attract: Lakewood has more than 20,000 unaffiliated Orthodox voters — suggesting that only a small fraction of them had declared as Democrats in order to vote in the primary.

Even if he had sought to mobilize those Orthodox voters earlier in the primary, Gottheimer still would have come up short. “None of that would have made a difference,” Schorr told Jewish Insider, given the outcome on Tuesday. “We just don’t have the kind of numbers to flip such a lopsided race, obviously.”

“Had Gottheimer been competitive with Sherrill in the rest of the state, his advantage among the Orthodox community could well have put him over the top,” Dan Cassino, a political scientist and pollster at Fairleigh Dickinson University, said. “Orthodox voters are a reliable source of votes, and Gottheimer put a lot of effort into securing their support. In a game of inches, that could have been decisive, but this race wound up not being a game of inches.”

Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, said that “Gottheimer was resourceful and smart to reach out to the religious communities of New Jersey — and it did bear fruit for him.”

“But fundamentally, he needed a lot more than those handful of communities could deliver for him,” Rasmussen told JI.

Dan Cassino, a political scientist and pollster at Fairleigh Dickinson University, agreed. “Had Gottheimer been competitive with Sherrill in the rest of the state, his advantage among the Orthodox community could well have put him over the top,” he said. “Orthodox voters are a reliable source of votes, and Gottheimer put a lot of effort into securing their support. In a game of inches, that could have been decisive, but this race wound up not being a game of inches.”

In Lakewood, a deeply conservative community where Republicans vastly outweigh Democrats, Gottheimer had always been severely limited in his ability to claim a decisive share of the electorate, particularly in a race he lost by more than 175,000 votes. By contrast, Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee backed by President Donald Trump, won Lakewood with more than 9,500 votes. In 2021, he came unexpectedly close to unseating outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, with strong support from the community, even as the Vaad had endorsed the incumbent last cycle.

“Considering he lost by 175,000 votes, there’s not much more he could have done,” a New Jersey political strategist and Jewish community activist said of Gottheimer, adding that the election results showed that the Lakewood Vaad is more capable of turning out significant votes than it was in the past — for second-time Republican nominee Ciatarelli. 

Lakewood helped deliver Ocean County for Ciattarelli, the strategist said, even as the county GOP chair endorsed one of Ciattarelli’s opponents. “That would have been a great day, just good news all around. But the Gottheimer thing kind of leaves people with a bad taste in their mouth.”

Meanwhile, a widely touted nonpartisan effort to register Jewish voters for the Democratic primary succeeded in persuading only a small minority of Lakewood voters to change their party affiliation, said Schorr, who pegged the number at some 250 voters. “It’s very difficult to get people, especially Orthodox Jews, to become registered Democrats,” Schorr told JI. “They’ll vote, maybe, in the election — but to change their affiliation from Republican to Democrat, that you’re not going to get them to do.”

The results raise questions about what basis had existed for the promises and expectations of that re-registration and turnout effort, according to the strategist, who noted the Lakewood votes simply never were up for grabs. “There aren’t a lot of Democratic votes in Lakewood, in the Orthodox community, to be had,” the strategist explained, while adding that Ciattarelli has worked hard to make connections and appeal to those voters.

A local Democratic strategist argued that the disappointing results of the Orthodox turnout effort need to prompt a re-assessment of the strategy.

Even as Gottheimer won his home county of Bergen in northern Jersey, he underperformed in Orthodox communities there and elsewhere in the state, such as Edison and Cherry Hill, said Schorr. “I think they could have done better just from the initial numbers I’ve seen,” he told JI. “The Lakewood area delivered, but other places did not.”

“For Josh, it was a challenge,” a Jewish leader said of Gottheimer. “It wasn’t enough for Josh, but at the end of the day, a pro-Israel and well-known friend of the Jewish community was still elected in part because of the Jewish vote in the state,” the Jewish leader said of Sherrill. 

Notwithstanding his strong record on Israel and antisemitism, across the wider Jewish community, Gottheimer also faced competition from a range of primary rivals including Sherill, former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, each of whom has, to varying degrees, built relationships with Jewish leaders during their tenures.

The results indicated that Sherrill overperformed and Gottheimer did not see a strong turnout surge, said a Jewish leader in the state who believes that many Jewish community members are now disillusioned with the results. Still, the Jewish leader expects Sherilll will maintain a positive relationship with the Jewish community going forward.

“For Josh, it was a challenge,” another Jewish leader said of Gottheimer, who sought to draw relatively minor contrasts with Sherrill on Jewish issues during the race, as she has called for increased federal action against antisemitism and demonstrated a largely pro-Israel record while in Congress. “It wasn’t enough for Josh, but at the end of the day, a pro-Israel and well-known friend of the Jewish community was still elected in part because of the Jewish vote in the state,” the Jewish leader said of Sherrill. 

Looking toward November, a Jewish leader said that moderate Democratic voters could be up for grabs for Ciatarelli, as many Jewish voters have been feeling disenchanted with the direction of the Democratic Party.

He is also likely to draw strong support from the Orthodox community, where in Lakewood alone there are around 30,000 registered Republicans.