With a week since the off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, a clear dynamic is emerging: President Donald Trump’s gains with nontraditional GOP voters — especially working-class Black and Hispanic voters and Gen Zers — are not translating into support for the Republican Party this year. 

If Republicans are unable to recreate the Trump 2024 coalition without Trump on the ballot, they will face serious political disadvantages for the midterms and beyond. 

The double-digit margins of victory of incoming Democratic governors Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia speak volumes about the current political environment. Their sweeping wins underscore that, while Democrats may be divided as a result of ideological infighting, the antipathy towards Trump and the GOP is the glue that holds the party together. 

The historic tendency of voters taking out their dissatisfaction on the party in power is alive and well, and is much more of a factor than the favorability ratings of the political parties.

The most revealing outcome from the gubernatorial elections is the fact that the majority-making elements of Trump’s coalition swung decisively back to the Democrats, according to the AP/Fox News voter analysis. In New Jersey, young men between 18-29 backed Sherrill by 14 points (57-43%) after narrowly supporting Trump in last year’s presidential election. In Virginia, Spanberger won 58% of young men, a huge margin for a demographic that had assumed to be trending away from the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party’s comeback with Hispanic voters is equally as significant. Because of continuing inflation and backlash to the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation of illegal immigrants and ICE tactics, Hispanic voters once again voted like reliable elements of the Democratic coalition. In New Jersey, over two-thirds (68%) of Hispanic voters backed Sherrill —12 points more than Kamala Harris’ support with Hispanics in the state in 2024. In Virginia, Spanberger’s 67% support with Hispanics was eight points ahead of Harris’ vote share with the key constituency.

Meanwhile, Black voters overwhelmingly sided with the Democratic nominees this year, after a notable minority of them backed Trump in last year’s presidential election. Spanberger won 93% of the Black vote, seven points more than Harris, even though she was running against a Black opponent in Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Sherrill won 94% of the Black vote in New Jersey, a whopping 15 points more than Harris carried in 2024.

There are a number of lessons from the gubernatorial results, even if they don’t neatly extrapolate into different states in future elections. 

First, the presence of pragmatic-minded Democrats with moderate voting records in Congress at the top of the ticket was a major selling point. In the 2024 presidential election, more voters viewed Harris as out of the ideological mainstream — a dynamic that was impossible to shake, given her long record of progressive posturing. That’s a clear lesson for Democrats to learn as they weigh their presidential nomination options for 2028.

Second, it’s evident that the GOP’s inroads with nonwhite working-class voters in 2024 was more of a short-term blip —mainly in response to former President Joe Biden’s handling of inflation — than any kind of lasting realignment. Republicans may come to regret their aggressive, partisan gerrymandering in Texas, given that it’s reliant on moderate-minded Hispanic voters in the state maintaining an affiliation with the Republican Party. That’s far from a sure thing.

Finally, it’s a reminder that the economy remains the dominant issue for voters — especially with these politically cross-pressured constituencies, which are generally less financially secure than their counterparts. One way to tamp down the so-called “culture wars” and rising extremism is by ensuring economic security and a broader safety net for less advantaged Americans. 

The stakes for Jewish voters are high for today’s off-year elections. All the major contests — in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia and California — are taking place in parts of the country where Jews make up a significant constituency. At a time when both parties are facing rising antisemitism in their own midst, we will be keeping a close eye on the results for trends affecting the Jewish community.

Here’s what we’ll be watching most closely:

New York City mayor: Polls consistently show Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani with a comfortable lead, but there’s less consensus on how decisive his winning margin will be. Most polls show Mamdani under 50%, though a few show him hitting a majority. Some show the combined anti-Mamdani vote — represented by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa — outpacing Mamdani’s share. 

Whether Mamdani surpasses a 50% majority will go a long way in determining how big his mandate will be. A narrower victory would mean that downballot Democrats — from members of Congress to local city council members — would have less to fear in response to the Mamdani movement.

President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Cuomo on Monday night could help the former Democratic governor pick off some Republican voters that had been leaning toward Sliwa. But for Cuomo to score an upset victory, he’d need to win over the vast majority of those Sliwa voters.

Pay close attention to the results in Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) heavily Jewish Manhattan district for signs of where the progressive-minded Jewish vote ends up landing. Cuomo won the first round of balloting over Mamdani in the district (37-33%), which includes the Upper East and Upper West Sides, but Mamdani narrowly prevailed in the final round of ranked-choice voting. Nadler notably backed Mamdani after his victory in the primary, but his district featured a significant share of backers for Brad Lander, the progressive city comptroller, as well. Cuomo will need a solid showing in Nadler’s district to do well.

New Jersey governor: The race between Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is competitive, though Democrats hold a small edge, according to public polls. The county we’ll be watching closely as a bellwether is Bergen County in north Jersey, which has one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the state and saw a significant pro-Trump swing from 2020 to 2024.

It’s also home to Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), the pro-Israel stalwart in Congress who carried the county in the Democratic gubernatorial primary and campaigned with Sherrill at a Jewish event in his home base last month.

Former President Joe Biden won 57% of the vote in Bergen, while former Vice President Kamala Harris barely won a majority (51%). New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, won 53% of the Bergen County vote in his narrow victory over Ciattarelli in 2021.  Ciattarelli would probably need an outright win in suburban Bergen to secure a victory.

Virginia statewide elections: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, is expected to win comfortably against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the lieutenant governor, but the downballot races are likely to be more competitive. 

Republicans are pinning their hopes on securing a second term for Attorney General Jason Miyares, one of the more active state attorneys general working to fight antisemitism in their home state. His Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, is mired in a scandal over texts wishing violence against a former GOP colleague in the state Legislature. Polling shows the race highly competitive, with Spanberger’s margin of victory potentially making the difference as to whether she can pull Jones over the finish line.

The lieutenant governor race features Ghazala Hashmi, a Democratic state senator who has elicited concern from the state’s Jewish community over her past involvement in anti-Israel activism. She’s running against conservative talk show host John Reid. Either winner would make statewide history: Hashmi would be the first Muslim woman elected to statewide office; Reid would be the first openly gay Republican elected statewide. 

In a brief interview Monday, Jewish Insider asked Hashmi how big of a challenge she thinks antisemitism is in Virginia. Hashmi replied: “I think we see growing challenges on so many levels of bigotry, and we have to be united in our efforts. I’m facing a great deal of Islamophobic attacks, as you probably have seen, so we have to respond to everything.” Pressed on what she thought about antisemitism specifically, Hashmi cut our interview short.

California redistricting referendum: Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to win his push to redraw California’s congressional lines to offset some of the partisan redistricting that Republicans have engaged in. The new lines, however, could end up endangering some of the more moderate Republicans that have strong records on fighting antisemitism and supporting Israel. 

The list of those Republicans adversely affected include: Rep. Ken Calvert — who chairs the Appropriations subcommittee on defense funding — as well as Reps. Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley, Doug LaMalfa and David Valadao.

Kiley has been a particularly outspoken voice against campus antisemitism from his perch on the House Education and Workforce Committee. 

Far-left mayoral scorecard: We’ll also be closely watching the mayoral races in Seattle and Minneapolis, where far-left DSA-aligned candidates are running competitively. If Katie Wilson and Omar Fateh end up both prevailing in Seattle and Minneapolis, respectively, it will signal a sign of the Democratic Party’s growing radicalism in major urban areas.