Today’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District — covering parts of Nashville, its conservative suburbs and rural counties in middle Tennessee — was expected to be a sleepy affair, given that the district backed President Donald Trump with 60% of the vote in 2024. The state’s aggressively partisan redistricting in 2021 was intended to guarantee GOP dominance of the state’s congressional delegation, leaving just one Democratic district in Memphis.

But in a sign that Trump’s growing unpopularity is creating unforeseen problems for Republicans in conservative constituencies, the race between Republican military veteran Matt Van Epps, a former state Cabinet secretary, and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn is highly competitive. 

The fact that polls show the race tightening — with one Emerson College poll showing Van Epps in a statistical tie with Behn — is a sign of just how treacherous the political landscape has become for Republicans. Gallup’s latest survey found Trump with a 36% job approval, close to an all-time low throughout his two terms in office.  

If Republicans are nervous about holding a seat that Trump won by 22 points, there’s a growing likelihood of a blue wave that would give Democrats comfortable control of the House and an outside shot at a Senate majority. (One useful benchmark: Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) carried the 7th District by just two points in her 2018 Senate race, the last election year when Democrats rode a wave to win back the House.)

The fact that Republicans are struggling to make the case that the unapologetically progressive Behn holds views out of step with the conservative district on everything from anti-police rhetoric to antipathy towards her home city of Nashville to a record of hostility against Israel is also a sign of how nationalized our politics have become. In today’s tribal world, candidate quality and specific policy views mean a lot less than the overall political mood (vibes) and the popularity of the president.

Once someone wins their party’s nomination, the penalty for holding ideologically extreme views isn’t as costly as it once was. Just look at incoming Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s showings in the November elections. Despite their substantial baggage, both candidates received a level of political legitimacy after winning their primaries.

Getting Trump voters to show up when the president isn’t on the ballot is also looking like an immense challenge that the closer-than-expected Tennessee race is showing — a dynamic that will continue past next year’s midterms. Part of it is the nature of off-year special elections, which less-engaged Republican voters aren’t likely to participate in. But some of the slippage in this race is also a sign of declining enthusiasm for the Republican Party even with more reliably GOP voters. 

The district is anchored by the affluent Nashville suburb of Williamson County, which stuck with Trump even as most other suburban areas swung towards Democrats over the last decade. 

Gallup found Trump dropping to 84% support among Republican voters, a decline of about 10 points in the last couple of months. If Republicans are slipping with their own voters, amid signs of cracks within the MAGA coalition, it would truly be a warning sign that the party’s vaunted unity under Trump could be dissipating as his final term progresses.

Odds still favor Van Epps in tonight’s special election, given the district’s solidly conservative bent. But if a progressive like Behn can make this race close — within single digits — it will serve as a flashing red light about where the political winds are heading for the White House, at least without a course correction.