Even as Zohran Mamdani remains the front-runner heading into New York City’s mayoral election next Tuesday, some emerging signs indicate that his momentum is flagging in the final stretch of the race — underscoring potential vulnerabilities for the 34-year-old democratic socialist.

Early voting returns over the weekend, for example, showed a notable surge among older New Yorkers turning out in City Council districts on the Upper East and West Sides, in what some experts interpreted as more favorable results for former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — running as an independent after losing the primary to Mamdani.

Meanwhile, a new Suffolk University poll released on Monday showed a tightening race, with Cuomo cutting Mamdani’s lead in half to just 10 points — 44% to 34% — in the closing week before the election.

The polling followed a debate performance last week in which Mamdani frequently found himself on the defensive — and faced criticism from Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, over his continued refusal to confirm his position on a series of ballot proposals.

“Cuomo’s numbers are going up because people are now paying more attention,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic consultant leading an anti-Mamdani super PAC.

Mamdani, a state assemblyman from Queens who would be New York City’s first Muslim mayor if elected, had spent the last few days accusing his rivals of pushing Islamophobic attacks, delivering a series of emotional addresses in which he expressed pride in his faith and vowed to “no longer look for myself in the shadows.”

The Democratic nominee came under scrutiny on Monday after clarifying that he had misidentified a family member who he said had stopped riding the subway after the 9/11 attacks, “because she did not feel safe in her hijab.” The woman, Mamdani said, was his father’s cousin, not his “aunt,” as he initially stated during a speech on Friday outside a mosque in the Bronx.

Despite his outreach to Jewish community leaders in recent weeks, Mamdani has doubled down on his base as the election reaches its conclusion. He held a rally on Sunday evening whose attendees included Hasan Piker, the far-left streamer who has espoused antisemitic rhetoric and has said “America deserved 9/11,” a comment Mamdani disavowed during a debate earlier this month.    

Cuomo, who has recently escalated his criticism of Mamdani, said on Monday that Piker’s presence at the campaign rally “is insulting to all New Yorkers.” The former governor’s rebuke came after he himself had faced backlash for laughing with a conservative radio host who said that Mamdani would celebrate another attack like 9/11.

Thanks in part to his continued relationships with extreme figures, Mamdani’s recent campaign efforts have done little to reassure many Jewish voters who remain worried about his hostility to Israel and his refusal to condemn calls to “globalize the intifada,” among other issues.

“I think there’s a genuine and legitimate concern that Jews are not going to be comfortable living in New York with him as mayor,” said Mitchell Moss, professor of urban policy and planning at New York University. “This is not a matter of affordability but survivability,” he added, using a twist on Mamdani’s top campaign focus.

In an unprecedented show of organized Jewish opposition to Mamdani, more than 1,000 rabbis from all leading denominations signed on to an open letter last week that raised alarms about his candidacy and said that, if elected, he would threaten “the safety and dignity of Jews in every city.”

Mamdani has vowed to protect Jewish New Yorkers and voiced sensitivity to rising antisemitism across the city. He is likely to receive an endorsement from a Satmar Hasidic faction in Brooklyn representing a sizable constituency, according to a person familiar with the matter, following recent engagement with the community, which is theologically anti-Zionist. 

But mainstream Jewish groups and leaders continue to hold reservations with Mamdani’s campaign. New York Solidarity Network, a local pro-Israel advocacy group, released an open letter on Monday urging all of the candidates in the race to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, oppose boycott efforts against Israel and “engage a broad spectrum of Jewish voices, including Zionists,” among other things. 

The letter, which was presumably aimed at Mamdani but did not mention him by name, was signed by more than 5,500 Jewish New Yorkers, according to NYSN.

One Democratic consultant not currently involved in the mayoral race said Mamdani has “made some very questionable decisions about who he hangs out with and the rhetoric he uses” with regard to Israel — issues that a number of Jewish New Yorkers believe he has failed to adequately address in his campaign.

While the consultant echoed others who still expect that Mamdani will win next Tuesday, he added that the current trajectory of the race suggests his share of the vote may not ultimately be so commanding to deliver a mandate.

“Based on the data now, five points seems much more likely than 25 points,” the consultant said.