An increasingly crowded race for a coveted House seat in the heart of Manhattan is shaping up to be among the most vigorously contested Democratic primary battles in next year’s midterms, with half a dozen — and counting — contenders now jockeying for the chance to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY).

In a district home to one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the country, the open primary next June is likely to center in part on Israel as the candidates signal where they stand on an issue that has grown intensely charged over the war in Gaza.

Even as the far left now seeks to ride momentum from Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory — which elevated an unabashed socialist to executive office — experts suggested the primary could largely serve as an exception to the anti-Israel sentiments that became a trademark of his stunning rise.

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent in the mayoral election this month, won the district by five points with 50%, indicating that a potentially meaningful share of Jewish voters were resistant to Mamdani’s hostile views on Israel and refusal to condemn rhetoric seen as antisemitic.

The district, which includes the Upper East and West Sides of Manhattan, “is more moderate and pro-Israel than” another heavily Jewish House seat in Brooklyn where Mamdani performed well, Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist who is not involved in the race, told Jewish Insider on Thursday.

So far, however, most of the declared candidates have been relatively cautious about sharing their positions on Israel — underscoring the hazards of addressing a subject that has fueled deep divisions within the Democratic Party. “I would be surprised if they want to lead on this,” Coffey speculated. “It’s a contentious issue.”   

With the exception of Alex Bores, an assemblyman who represents the Upper East Side, none of the top candidates who have launched bids in recent weeks answered a question from JI on Thursday asking whether they would support an embargo on offensive weapons to Israel, a measure backed by Nadler after he revealed in September that he would step down at the end of his current term.

“There are laws on the books about this and they should be applied across the board,” Bores said in a statement indicating he would oppose such efforts if elected. “There is no singling out or exemptions for any one country.”

Privately, Bores has been “clear” that an arms embargo is not “negotiable for him,” according to a person familiar with his thinking. Former Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), a pro-Israel Jewish Democrat, endorsed the assemblyman on Tuesday but was not available to comment about his decision.

Alan Pardee, a former financial executive who is also seeking the nomination, was more direct in a statement shared with JI. “I believe that Israel has the right to defend itself, and that the United States is a critical ally in that regard. I do not support the proposed embargo,” he said.

Micah Lasher, a Jewish assemblyman on the Upper West Side and a protégé of Nadler who is viewed as traditionally pro-Israel, has yet to publicly confirm his own stance on the matter, even as he is expected to reject an embargo. Lasher also dodged a question about the issue while speaking at an Assembly town hall in September before he launched his House bid, saying he was unwilling to discuss topics outside his state legislative purview, according to audio shared with JI. 

A poll that circulated in the district in September, which some observers suspected was affiliated with Lasher or allies of his campaign, asked respondents whether they supported Congress blocking “the sale of weapons to Israel” in order to “send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” a sign of the significance of such questions to voters in the race.

Like Nadler, a veteran Jewish lawmaker who has long sought to balance his progressive politics with support for Israel that dwindled during the war in Gaza, Lasher had faced backlash from some Jewish community leaders in the district for having endorsed Mamdani, though he has clarified they are not aligned on Israel issues.

Other candidates in the primary who backed the mayor-elect have similarly distanced themselves from his positions on Israel. Erik Bottcher, a city councilman from Chelsea who joined the primary on Thursday, has confirmed that, unlike Mamdani, he supports Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Jack Schlossberg, an influencer and the grandson of John F. Kennedy, who also entered the primary this week, has said he disagrees with Mamdani’s pledge to arrest Netanyahu if he steps foot in the city. The political scion was raised Catholic but identifies as Jewish.

Bores, who endorsed Mamdani in September, has objected to a failed bill the mayor-elect introduced as an assemblyman to strip nonprofit groups of their tax-exempt status for “engaging in unauthorized support of Israeli settlement activity.” Bores has said he viewed the bill as “immediately suspicious” because it “singularly applies to organizations providing aid to a specific country and its people.“

And Liam Elkind, a Jewish former nonprofit leader who had launched a primary challenge to Nadler before he announced his plans to retire, has expressed his concern that Mamdani has refused to denounce the phrase “globalize the intifada” — seen by critics as a call to violence against Jews. Mamdani has, instead, pledged to “discourage” usage of the phrase. 

Rounding out the primary field is Jami Floyd, an attorney and journalist who is seeking to occupy a centrist lane and has said that she did not vote for Mamdani. 

The field could grow as other potential candidates are said to be mulling campaigns, including George Conway, a lawyer and outspoken critic of President Donald Trump who is an independent, and Nathalie Barth, former president of Park Avenue Synagogue.

Cameron Kasky, a young gun-violence prevention activist, has filed to run and said on Thursday he is now exploring a bid. He is expected to soon join the race, according to a person familiar with the matter. He would be one of the lone anti-Israel voices in the current primary field, testing the resonance of such views among an electorate that denied Mamdani the majority of the vote.

Kasky, who is Jewish, has frequently criticized Israel on social media and is in favor of an arms embargo. “If you are a Democrat running in 2026 and do not fully support an arms embargo to the to State of Israel amidst their ongoing genocide in Gaza despite Trump’s fake ‘ceasefire,’” he said in a recent post, “Stop wasting everybody’s time. It’s over. The people have spoken. Moral clarity is winning.”

Despite his recent loss, Cuomo, a staunch defender of Israel, is also exploring a campaign and has been making calls to donors who backed his mayoral bid, though it was unclear how seriously he is considering the move, people familiar with the matter told JI. Cuomo, who was once married to a Kennedy, has suggested that he can pull support from Schlossberg and told people he “already has the Kennedy voters,” one of the sources told JI. A spokesperson for Cuomo has dismissed speculation that he has been considering a House campaign.

The primary is also expected to attract outside spending from super PACs and major Democratic donors, including Reid Hoffman, the co-founder of LinkedIn who has reportedly committed to backing Elkind. One person familiar with the race suggested Lasher could claim support from a powerful former boss, Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, for whom he once worked as a legislative director.

AIPAC, the pro-Israel advocacy group that has actively engaged in recent primary cycles, did not respond to a request for comment about how it is assessing the race.

Last year’s election cycle marked a high point for pro-Israel groups, buoyed by the ouster of two virulently anti-Israel House Democrats (former Reps. Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman in New York), the defeat of a House Republican who opposed funding to Israel (former Rep. Bob Good of Virginia) and the success of mainstream Democrats in numerous contested primaries. 

But the political environment for next year’s midterms is looking somewhat choppier in the Jewish world, amid growing anti-Israel sentiment in the Democratic Party, an anti-establishment, transgressive mood in both parties and the reticence of moderate voices to speak up.

In this less hospitable landscape, pro-Israel groups will be playing more defense than offense — ensuring like-minded incumbents are able to avert serious primary challenges, while working to prevent virulently anti-Israel voices from emerging as nominees in key races.

One of the biggest potential showdowns is developing in St. Louis, where Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO) faces the prospect of a rematch against Bush, whom he comfortably defeated by six points in last year’s primary. With the benefit of incumbency, Bell would be favored in any rematch, but he is facing an organized campaign by anti-Israel protesters who disrupted his recent town hall after he returned from a trip to the Jewish state. 

AIPAC’s super PAC spent over $8 million against Bush in the 2024 race, and would be expected to prioritize Bell’s reelection as a top priority if she ran again. Bush, for all her celebrity in leftist spaces, has numerous vulnerabilities that haven’t gone away since her last defeat — from her calls to defund the police, lackadaisical constituent service and ethical improprieties involving the use of campaign funds in paying her husband to provide personal security.

Still, in a sign that advocating against Israel can get far-left candidates some traction in deep-blue districts, a Bush comeback will be worth monitoring closely. Indeed, any pro-Israel Democrat running in an urban district with a distinct progressive bent will have to pay attention to any real or prospective primary challenges. 

Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), one of the most stalwart pro-Israel Democrats, is already facing two primary challengers running to his left. And while neither has made Israel a major part of their platform, neither challenger shares the incumbent’s long-standing support for the Jewish state. (Sherman’s district is solidly Democratic, but also heavily Jewish, making his Israel advocacy a political asset.)

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), representing a Lower Manhattan district that Zohran Mamdani comfortably carried in the New York City mayoral primary, will have to be attuned to any challengers on his left. Goldman has done an effective job of locking down his seat since first winning with just 26% in a crowded 2022 primary. But he could face a credible threat from Comptroller Brad Lander, a Mamdani ally who finished third in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary.

Other contests Jewish groups are watching warily include the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, where Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has been rallying support for anti-Israel candidate Abdul el-Sayed, as many party leaders have rallied around the mainstream Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), a strong pro-Israel ally. 

Pro-Israel groups are also concerned about the candidacy of Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race against Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), whose reelection would become an even bigger priority if he emerged as the Democratic challenger.

As notable in assessing the political environment are the primaries we’re not talking about. The original members of the anti-Israel “Squad” — Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and Summer Lee (D-PA) — aren’t currently facing serious primary opposition even though they’ve been vulnerable in past elections. 

It’s a clear sign that this will be an election cycle focused on protecting hard-fought gains more than one where pro-Israel groups have the luxury to challenge the remaining worst offenders.